- Good morning everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here .
- from theuptrend.com with today's look
at North American stock market trends. .
- Well, we're coming up to CPI numbers .
- at 8:30AM this morning and so far it has been
a fairly bullish morning with the Dow .
- futures currently up
just under 300 points. .
- So people are apparently not
waiting for those CPI numbers. .
- They think they're going
to be bullish for the market. .
- Now Wednesday turned out to be
an inside day for the US market. .
- So whether you're looking at the Dow
Diamonds, the Spiders, the Q's, .
- the Russell 2000, or the Microcap sector,
they all had an inside day on Wednesday. .
- An inside day of course is a day
of indecision, a pause day, a rest day. .
- They're waiting for more information .
- to come out and that information is
going to come out at 830 this morning. .
- So we are expecting Volatility to expand. .
- So going from an inside day
to a wide bar day on Thursday. .
- Now what didn't work yesterday? .
- Utilities on both sides
of the border were the big losers. .
- The big winner in the US
was energy and transports. .
- And oddly enough, the biggest
winners in the Transport sector. .
- And the biggest winners on the S&P
500 were the cruise lines. .
- Starting off with Norwegian,
then Royal, followed by Carnival. .
- They were all up sharply yesterday,
leading the S&P 500 higher. .
- Now looking at the Canadian market,
we didn't get an inside day for the TSX, .
- but we certainly got a very
small range bar day. .
- We haven't had a day like that since
back here in the middle of September. .
- And then of course,
Volatility expanded the next day .
- and that's what we're
expecting to happen today. .
- No idea on the ultimate direction .
- of the market, it is bullish
before the CPI announcement. .
- That does not mean it's
going to be bullish after. .
- So new low for the TSX,
new low for the TSX 60. .
- Mid caps held up a little better. .
- Small caps held up fairly well, while
the microcaps traded lower on Wednesday. .
- Now the big winner on the TSX, big
winner from a loser is cannabis stocks. .
- Once again, of course this
is a very volatile sector. .
- It'll often show up at the top .
- of the winners and the biggest loser of
the day, it'll just shift back and forth. .
- We had that big update last week,
which was followed by a big down day. .
- And you can see we traded right up
to the Flypaper Channel and reversed. .
- So if you were long any of the cannabis .
- stocks last week, hopefully you had orders
in above the market to get filled because .
- you only had two days to take some profits
before things went back to the norm. .
- Now what didn't work? .
- Well, just like in the US. .
- It was the utility sector was
the big loser on Wednesday. .
- Let's finish off looking at those mega .
- trends and one of the mega trends
of course is a rising VIX. .
- Now the VIX seems to be stuck here at 34.38 .
- and if we can't break through there
that would probably indicate .
- that the market wants to turn
around at this point. .
- And here's an interesting chart. .
- Here's a Vanguard all world except the US .
- ETF. .
- And as you can see we're in a bear market
using the Flypaper Channel as resistance. .
- But right now it looks like we're trying
to put in a double bottom here at 43.75. .
- If we can hold that, this could be the time .
- and place where the market
wants to turn around. .
- Remember we can't get the VIX to push .
- higher, which means traders aren't willing
to pay for more portfolio insurance .
- at the moment,
which means they're starting to turn .
- from being bearish net
bearish to somewhat bullish. .
- It doesn't mean that that's going to mark
the bottom for this particular move but it .
- certainly means that we could head up
from here, maybe up two lines and then .
- stop for a pause before
we head lower again. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- Now of course the US dollar
index moved up yesterday. .
- It's another one of our big trends. .
- And of course that has a lot to do .
- with the bond yields which had
an inside day yesterday. .
- The 30 year bond had an inside
day on Wednesday as well. .
- We still have copper trading
in the channel so as an economic barometer .
- it's not telling us too
much at the moment. .
- You can see copper has traded up .
- to the Flypaper Channel several
times and it's acted as resistant. .
- So copper is still in a bear
market of course, as is gold. .
- And gold recently traded up the fly paper .
- channel and reversed as
the US dollar reversed. .
- So if we can get the US dollar to start .
- to come down again, we could probably
get money to flow back into gold. .
- But right now we're on a daily sell signal
and then let's finish off with energy. .
- We've got crude off with an early warning
signal up there at the top of the screen .
- we've pulled back
for the past couple of days. .
- We're still on a buy signal here. .
- We need a close on Thursday below
83.95 to give us a Sell Signal. .
- And for natural gas we're
still on a sell signal. .
- Things would change on Thursday
with a close above 7.01. .
- If we start breaking down below 6.25 then .
- 5.47 would be our next
target to the downside. .
- Okay folks, that is all for this
morning's presentation. .
- The CPI numbers are coming
out in a few minutes. .
- I'm not going to wait for that because I'm .
- going to try to get the video
posted as quickly as possible. .
- It's going to be interesting to see if the
rest of the world can hold support here. .
- Of course we're all focused on what's .
- going on in North America and rarely do we
look beyond our borders except when .
- the other countries show
up as major news items. .
- But here's what the rest
of the world looks like right now. .
- It looks like they're trying to put .
- in a double bottom, and we'll
have to see if that can hold. .
- And of course, one of the ways it's going .
- to be able to hold is if we can
get the VIX to start to come down. .
- Enjoy the rest of the day. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice .
- is on Friday morning. .
- .