- Hello, everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here .
- from the Uptrend.com with this weekend's
edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well, the stock index futures have started .
- trading on Sunday night,
and so far they're pretty quiet. .
- So that tells us there has not been any .
- major news stories over
the weekend to disturb the market. .
- If you were with us last week at this
time, things were looking up and we're .
- looking for the market to come
in on a positive note. .
- We started the week very overbought
and we ended the week very overbought. .
- And of course, the end of the week
coincides with the end of the month. .
- Monday is the last
trading day of the month. .
- We always look for a bullish
bias at the end of the month. .
- Some months, if the market's not doing .
- well, that bullish bias can
stop us from heading lower. .
- It does not guarantee positive results,
but this month it looks like it is. .
- Now, unfortunately, we've got
a big question mark on Wednesday. .
- We've got the Fed coming out with its
interest rate pronouncements, .
- and all the money is on a three
quarter percent rate hike. .
- Whether it does it or not,
it's yet to be determined. .
- And of course, it's not
just the rate hike. .
- It's the comments that come after that can
throw the market into a hissy fit. .
- So we'll just have to wait
and see what happens. .
- Now, so far for the month,
it turned out to be very bullish .
- for the Dow up 14.4% and just
trading above last month's high. .
- So that is a huge major reversal. .
- But remember, the Dow is only 30 stocks. .
- When you compare that to some of the other .
- broader indices, things aren't looking
as positive, but they are positive. .
- So there's the TSX making a new low this .
- month, and we're up 5.57 percent,
not trading above the previous month's .
- high, which would be the first
sign something new is happening. .
- And the similar situation for the SP 500,
up 8.8%, trading up to the lower .
- channel line, not trading above
the previous month's high. .
- And then even weaker, .
- we've got the Nasdaq 100 up 5.24%, and
then the Sox index up 5.5% for the month. .
- So that's how the overall market looks. .
- Now, we did get a bunch of weekly buy
signals this week, and certainly for the .
- iShares, for the TSX 60,
they are back on a buy signal. .
- We have not gotten a buy signal
for the S&P 500 or for the Nasdaq 100, .
- but certainly for the Dow and the Dow
Diamonds. They are back on buy signals. .
- So quite a few new buy signals. .
- And a sell signal for the VIX. .
- The VIX closed below the lower
channel line on the weekly chart. .
- So that may clear the way for us
to continue to move higher from here. .
- Of course, we have to get over
that Fed meeting on Wednesday. .
- Actually, the Fed meeting
starts on Tuesday. .
- The announcement comes out on Wednesday. .
- There's the daily VIX
continuing to move lower. .
- So that again is bullish for the market. .
- Things would change on Monday. .
- If you're watching the market on Monday, .
- if the VIX closes above $30.42. And
of course if that doesn't happen .
- on Monday, that upper channel line is
going to continue to move lower daily. .
- Now, not surprising,
the big winners for the month of October .
- have been the energy sector
on both sides of the border. .
- So that's something both
markets have in common. .
- Now the big loser for the month
of October, well, .
- it was the Chinese market down 10% or so
depending on which ETF you're looking at. .
- But that's not a pretty
picture going forward. .
- And of course,
China has not dealt with its mortgage .
- and banking crisis yet
and that is still unraveling. .
- And so I wouldn't be surprised to see .
- the Chinese market continuing
to move lower from here. .
- Now let's talk about price targets. .
- Of course we've got daily and weekly price .
- targets for about 2300 symbols
in our database at the moment. .
- And of course, we're not going to go
through all 2300 in this presentation. .
- If you saw our video on Friday, .
- we were talking about
the price targets for the Dow. .
- The Dow had traded up to our next price .
- target and stopped and we were looking
to see if it could take out the early .
- September high that would take
us up to the next target. .
- And that's exactly what
happened on Friday. .
- Took us up to 32,812.50. .
- That is not only a daily target
but also a weekly target. .
- And that is also a target for the Dow
diamonds, which is 328.13. .
- So we ran up, hit that target
on the daily and weekly charts. .
- That could be the end
of the road for the Dow. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- You can also see that the QQQ's
for the Nasdaq traded up to 281.25. .
- We closed at 281 22. .
- So we hit that target on Friday. .
- If you had an order in to sell up at that
level, that order got filled on Friday. .
- Congratulations. .
- And then looking at the microcaps, .
- 112.50 was our next target and we
closed at 112.94 on Friday. .
- So we are hitting some price targets here. .
- Price targets are also resistance .
- and we'll have to see if we
can break through this week. .
- Let's finish off this week's presentation .
- looking at those megatrends and we did
see a reversal in bonds this week. .
- 30 year bond made a new
low and then moved up. .
- Going into the close. .
- 30 year bond yields made a new
high and then came back. .
- That came up as a bearish reversal week. .
- So of course, bearish reversal week is a 1 .
- bar event and now we're looking to see
if we get confirmation this week. .
- And of course, everybody in the bond .
- market is going to be watching what
the Fed does and says on wednesday. 4.30 .
- looks like resistance. .
- That's where we're topping right
now for the 30 year bond yield. .
- Of course, 30 year bond yields are .
- important because that's what
those mortgage rates are based on. .
- Then we're looking at the US dollar index .
- trading down towards
the lower channel line. .
- A close this coming Friday below 109.30 would give us a sell signal. .
- And for the Euro, we're looking for a
close above 101.07 this coming Friday. .
- That would give us a new buy signal. .
- So we're right on the edge
of that happening. .
- And we even saw the British pound move up, .
- even though it got its next
temporary Prime Minister. .
- That was enough to push the British pound
right up to the upper channel line. .
- So we're sitting right on the edge .
- of a new weekly buy signal
for the British pound. .
- Looking at metals,
copper still trading in the channel here, .
- but closing lower on the week price of
gold still below the lower channel line. .
- So even if with a falling US dollar,
we're not getting much interest .
- in the price of gold,
some of the gold stocks have done really .
- well, even though the price
of gold was down over $18. .
- And then the price of silver down .
- on the week trading in the channel,
so no trend going on there. .
- And then finally, energy. .
- We've got crude all trading
up still in the channel. .
- So a close above 90.5 cents this coming .
- Friday would get us back above
the upper channel lines. .
- We're still sitting on a buy signal here .
- from four weeks ago, but we're
not really trending anywhere. .
- And speaking of not trending, well,
natural gas has taken a break. .
- It closed higher on the week,
so almost an inside week for natural gas. .
- So we may be finding a bottom here. .
- We'll just have to wait and see
if we can hold last week's low. .
- Okay, folks, that is all
for this weekend's presentation. .
- We came into this week with lots of daily
buy signals and now this week they've been .
- followed up with a lot
of weekly buy signals. .
- I'm not overly confident here. .
- We're still in a bear market and none
of those megatrends have changed at all. .
- So I think this might
be a temporary up move. .
- The seasonality from here to the end .
- of the year is bullish,
but it's not a straight line. .
- And so it'll be interesting to see how
the market reacts to what the Fed does .
- on Tuesday and Wednesday,
especially after 02:00 p.m. .
- Wednesday afternoon. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning. .