- Hello, everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here .
- from theuptrend.com with this weekend's
edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well if you were with us at this time last .
- week, we were focused
on what wasn't working. .
- The Dow was leading the market higher
and we were watching to see if the rest .
- of the market would start to catch up or
if the market would start to reverse. .
- And of the market certainly did some .
- catching up this week and what
a difference a week makes. .
- Now the market moved sharply off .
- of the smallest inflation data point
and one data point does not make a trend. .
- And so one wonders what will happen if we .
- get a data point of that size
in the opposite direction? .
- Will the market move just as swiftly
down as it did up this week? .
- Well the market action we saw this week .
- certainly fits into the seasonality chart
where we get a rally in early November .
- and then we get some sort of pullback
before we head up into December. .
- We'll just have to see how that works out. .
- Looking at the VIX. .
- The VIX has been on the sell signal for
the last three weeks and we headed lower. .
- So we're going to remain longterm bullish .
- on the market as long as the VIX does not
close above 30.31 this coming Friday. .
- If you're watching it during the week, .
- this is the chart we posted last weekend,
daily chart of the VIX and we were looking .
- for a close above 28.01. That did not happen during the week. .
- We made a high on Thursday and then
a quick reversal to the downside. .
- So on Monday we're looking
for a close above 26.58. .
- If that were to happen of course
that would change our view on the market .
- on a short term basis
from bullish to bearish. .
- Now we have to be quite impressed
that the market was able to catch up .
- with the seasonality chart this week
and put everything back in order. .
- I'm not sure how long the market is going
to be able to keep that up though we do .
- have still have inflation to deal
with and the oncoming recession .
- and central banks are still
raising rates around the world. .
- So I don't think that's going
to change any time soon. .
- So just like any other week,
you take it one week at a time. .
- This week is bullish, .
- next week could be bearish and we
could see a change in trend. .
- We'll just have to take it as we
always do, one week at a time. .
- Now we were watching the Dow
Diamonds lead in the market higher. .
- It broke through the October highs, .
- the September highs, and now it's
heading up towards the August highs. .
- Now the rest of the market is playing .
- catch up and we're looking at daily
charts here that you can see. .
- The SPY ETF actually joined the party .
- on Thursday and broke
through the October highs. .
- Now the next target that we have. .
- Mathematical target is 400 and 625. .
- But to get there we have to get over .
- the big round number of 400 and we
got as high as 399.35 on Friday. .
- So if we can break through 400, 406.25 is our next target to the upside. .
- And then above that you can see we peaked .
- in September up there at 411.73 and then quickly reversed. .
- Looking at the QQQ's, .
- they also joined the party on Thursday,
broke out above the October highs, .
- heading towards the areas that we
haven't traded since September. .
- And we're looking at our next price target .
- of 296.88 and of course just
above that is the $300 target. .
- Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60
trading, pretty much like the Dow diamonds .
- at the moment, heading up towards those
August highs, our mathematical target is .
- 31.25, but we veered away from that
in August getting as high as 31.20. .
- So just keep that in mind, .
- that's our next big target
to the upside for the Canadian market. .
- Now last week at this time we were talking
about the fact that the Energy sector has .
- been such a great performer this year,
but it is far more important .
- to the Canadian market than
the US market at this time. .
- Currently the energy sector is only 3% of
the SP 500 while it's 13.5% of the TSX. .
- Now going back in time, .
- going back to the energy sector was a much
bigger component of the S&P 500 way .
- back when it was almost like
the technology sector today. .
- But times have changed. .
- There's been a lot of consolidation .
- in the energy sector over time
and things priorities have changed, .
- the technology sector has become far more .
- important to the economy than
the energy sector in the US. .
- Of course the energy companies in the US .
- a lot of them are global,
so they're much bigger than the energy .
- companies in Canada which tend
to be a lot more local. .
- Now, what worked this week
and what didn't work well? .
- What worked in the Canadian market? .
- Well, it was the gold sector
up nearly 12% for the week. .
- Then we've got it the technology sector up .
- just under 11% and then we've got
the healthcare sector, .
- which of course includes the cannabis
stocks, up nearly 9% on the week. .
- What didn't work well,
energy stocks were down but also clean. .
- Technology stocks were
down 2% on the week. .
- Looking at the US market, well, .
- semiconductors led the way
up by 12.57%. .
- That's a good sign going forward. .
- If we can take out those August highs then
we're looking at housing which was up, 12.1%. .
- And then we're looking at the XAU
up 10.44% for the week. .
- Next up, let's take a look
at those megatrends. .
- And one of them did end this week .
- and that was the US Dollar index,
down 4.14% on the week. .
- That's a huge move for currency. .
- And then a lot of currencies around the
world headed in the opposite direction. .
- Whether you're looking at the Australian .
- Dollar, the British pound,
Canadian Dollar, .
- there's the Euro up of corresponding 14%,
Japanese yen up nearly 6% on the week. .
- That is a huge move and there's
a nice big move for the Swiss franc. .
- Now, bonds were also higher this week, .
- no major trend change so far
for the XBB in Canada, the TLT. .
- Now we talked about the merging market .
- bonds, they were leading the market higher
last week and we are back on a buy signal .
- for emerging market bonds,
but not for the junk bonds. .
- Still waiting for a close above 91.53. .
- Then looking at commodities, .
- we had pullback in crude oil down 3.6%,
still trading along the 87.50 level, .
- we closed at 88.16, so we're
still not able to break out. .
- There's no trend going
on in crude oil at the moment. .
- There's still a trend for natural gas
and unfortunately it's to the downside. .
- The only bullish thing is we haven't made .
- a new low in three weeks
and so we're down 7.66%. .
- And there's the price of copper up
on the week, up 4.35% 2nd week in a row. .
- Then we had the gold up the $68.0.50
on the week and that is of course .
- the following silver which has been
up for the last couple of weeks. .
- So there's all the metals up on the week. .
- Moving on to bitcoin and ethereum,
they are down sharply this week, .
- down 24% and change for bitcoin,
down 26.7% for ethereum. .
- I don't recommend any
of these cryptocurrencies. .
- If I was 40, 50 years younger I might .
- consider them, but they're not
something I'm really interested in. .
- The reason I'm telling you this is because
people often ask me questions .
- and my opinion and I really don't have
much of opinion on the crypto currencies. .
- Now let's finish off with the one chart
to watch, and that is the US Dollar index .
- had a major move down this week
and every time it's moved down in 2022, .
- we've got a corresponding up
move in the stock market. .
- And so what we've seen recently is back .
- in September we made a high,
then we made a series of lower highs .
- and lower lows and this week
we actually broke down. .
- And so as the US Dollar has been coming
down, the stock market has been going up. .
- So I think the US Dollar is the one chart
to watch and of course if that changes .
- this week, that could also change
the direction of the stock market. .
- OK folks, that's all for this
weekend's presentation. .
- It was a memorable week, one of the best
weeks we've seen in a couple of years. .
- Of course, we're going to look to see what
kind of follow through we get this week. .
- If we got a small pullback or an inside
week, that wouldn't be a big deal. .
- Of course, the first sign that something
went wrong is if we start closing below .
- the previous week's low,
that would be certainly a concern. .
- Or if we saw a big move in the VIX to the
upside, that would also be a concern. .
- But otherwise, we're going to follow .
- the money and see how far it
can take us into the year end. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning. .