• Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here .
• from theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
• Well if you were with us at this time last .
• week, we were focused on what wasn't working. .
• The Dow was leading the market higher and we were watching to see if the rest .
• of the market would start to catch up or if the market would start to reverse. .
• And of the market certainly did some .
• catching up this week and what a difference a week makes. .
• Now the market moved sharply off .
• of the smallest inflation data point and one data point does not make a trend. .
• And so one wonders what will happen if we .
• get a data point of that size in the opposite direction? .
• Will the market move just as swiftly down as it did up this week? .
• Well the market action we saw this week .
• certainly fits into the seasonality chart where we get a rally in early November .
• and then we get some sort of pullback before we head up into December. .
• We'll just have to see how that works out. .
• Looking at the VIX. .
• The VIX has been on the sell signal for the last three weeks and we headed lower. .
• So we're going to remain longterm bullish .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 30.31 this coming Friday. .
• If you're watching it during the week, .
• this is the chart we posted last weekend, daily chart of the VIX and we were looking .
• for a close above 28.01. That did not happen during the week. .
• We made a high on Thursday and then a quick reversal to the downside. .
• So on Monday we're looking for a close above 26.58. .
• If that were to happen of course that would change our view on the market .
• on a short term basis from bullish to bearish. .
• Now we have to be quite impressed that the market was able to catch up .
• with the seasonality chart this week and put everything back in order. .
• I'm not sure how long the market is going to be able to keep that up though we do .
• have still have inflation to deal with and the oncoming recession .
• and central banks are still raising rates around the world. .
• So I don't think that's going to change any time soon. .
• So just like any other week, you take it one week at a time. .
• This week is bullish, .
• next week could be bearish and we could see a change in trend. .
• We'll just have to take it as we always do, one week at a time. .
• Now we were watching the Dow Diamonds lead in the market higher. .
• It broke through the October highs, .
• the September highs, and now it's heading up towards the August highs. .
• Now the rest of the market is playing .
• catch up and we're looking at daily charts here that you can see. .
• The SPY ETF actually joined the party .
• on Thursday and broke through the October highs. .
• Now the next target that we have. .
• Mathematical target is 400 and 625. .
• But to get there we have to get over .
• the big round number of 400 and we got as high as 399.35 on Friday. .
• So if we can break through 400, 406.25 is our next target to the upside. .
• And then above that you can see we peaked .
• in September up there at 411.73 and then quickly reversed. .
• Looking at the QQQ's, .
• they also joined the party on Thursday, broke out above the October highs, .
• heading towards the areas that we haven't traded since September. .
• And we're looking at our next price target .
• of 296.88 and of course just above that is the $300 target. .
• Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60 trading, pretty much like the Dow diamonds .
• at the moment, heading up towards those August highs, our mathematical target is .
• 31.25, but we veered away from that in August getting as high as 31.20. .
• So just keep that in mind, .
• that's our next big target to the upside for the Canadian market. .
• Now last week at this time we were talking about the fact that the Energy sector has .
• been such a great performer this year, but it is far more important .
• to the Canadian market than the US market at this time. .
• Currently the energy sector is only 3% of the SP 500 while it's 13.5% of the TSX. .
• Now going back in time, .
• going back to the energy sector was a much bigger component of the S&P 500 way .
• back when it was almost like the technology sector today. .
• But times have changed. .
• There's been a lot of consolidation .
• in the energy sector over time and things priorities have changed, .
• the technology sector has become far more .
• important to the economy than the energy sector in the US. .
• Of course the energy companies in the US .
• a lot of them are global, so they're much bigger than the energy .
• companies in Canada which tend to be a lot more local. .
• Now, what worked this week and what didn't work well? .
• What worked in the Canadian market? .
• Well, it was the gold sector up nearly 12% for the week. .
• Then we've got it the technology sector up .
• just under 11% and then we've got the healthcare sector, .
• which of course includes the cannabis stocks, up nearly 9% on the week. .
• What didn't work well, energy stocks were down but also clean. .
• Technology stocks were down 2% on the week. .
• Looking at the US market, well, .
• semiconductors led the way up by 12.57%. .
• That's a good sign going forward. .
• If we can take out those August highs then we're looking at housing which was up, 12.1%. .
• And then we're looking at the XAU up 10.44% for the week. .
• Next up, let's take a look at those megatrends. .
• And one of them did end this week .
• and that was the US Dollar index, down 4.14% on the week. .
• That's a huge move for currency. .
• And then a lot of currencies around the world headed in the opposite direction. .
• Whether you're looking at the Australian .
• Dollar, the British pound, Canadian Dollar, .
• there's the Euro up of corresponding 14%, Japanese yen up nearly 6% on the week. .
• That is a huge move and there's a nice big move for the Swiss franc. .
• Now, bonds were also higher this week, .
• no major trend change so far for the XBB in Canada, the TLT. .
• Now we talked about the merging market .
• bonds, they were leading the market higher last week and we are back on a buy signal .
• for emerging market bonds, but not for the junk bonds. .
• Still waiting for a close above 91.53. .
• Then looking at commodities, .
• we had pullback in crude oil down 3.6%, still trading along the 87.50 level, .
• we closed at 88.16, so we're still not able to break out. .
• There's no trend going on in crude oil at the moment. .
• There's still a trend for natural gas and unfortunately it's to the downside. .
• The only bullish thing is we haven't made .
• a new low in three weeks and so we're down 7.66%. .
• And there's the price of copper up on the week, up 4.35% 2nd week in a row. .
• Then we had the gold up the $68.0.50 on the week and that is of course .
• the following silver which has been up for the last couple of weeks. .
• So there's all the metals up on the week. .
• Moving on to bitcoin and ethereum, they are down sharply this week, .
• down 24% and change for bitcoin, down 26.7% for ethereum. .
• I don't recommend any of these cryptocurrencies. .
• If I was 40, 50 years younger I might .
• consider them, but they're not something I'm really interested in. .
• The reason I'm telling you this is because people often ask me questions .
• and my opinion and I really don't have much of opinion on the crypto currencies. .
• Now let's finish off with the one chart to watch, and that is the US Dollar index .
• had a major move down this week and every time it's moved down in 2022, .
• we've got a corresponding up move in the stock market. .
• And so what we've seen recently is back .
• in September we made a high, then we made a series of lower highs .
• and lower lows and this week we actually broke down. .
• And so as the US Dollar has been coming down, the stock market has been going up. .
• So I think the US Dollar is the one chart to watch and of course if that changes .
• this week, that could also change the direction of the stock market. .
• OK folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation. .
• It was a memorable week, one of the best weeks we've seen in a couple of years. .
• Of course, we're going to look to see what kind of follow through we get this week. .
• If we got a small pullback or an inside week, that wouldn't be a big deal. .
• Of course, the first sign that something went wrong is if we start closing below .
• the previous week's low, that would be certainly a concern. .
• Or if we saw a big move in the VIX to the upside, that would also be a concern. .
• But otherwise, we're going to follow .
• the money and see how far it can take us into the year end. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .