• Good morning everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the premarket. .
• This morning stock index futures are down .
• across the board, being led lower by technology stocks. .
• Dow futures are currently down 250 points. .
• Commodities are mixed. .
• We've got gold and crude oil lower, while not natural gas is higher. .
• On Thursday morning. .
• Let's start off this morning's presentation with a little housekeeping. .
• Over the past couple of weeks, .
• we've been trying to perfect our early morning workflow so that we could not only .
• publish in English, but publish in multiple languages. .
• This is to help our business partners .
• around the world and things are going pretty good. .
• What we have come up with a decision today and that is to just publish the English .
• version first and then the translated versions will be available 1 hour later. .
• And so we're starting that this morning. .
• And so if you're waiting .
• for the translated version, just look and see when you get the English .
• version and the translated version will be available in the same place. .
• You just have to click on the icons at the bottom of the screen and you'll be .
• able to get the translated version 1 hour later. .
• Now there's really not too much to say about yesterday's trading activity. .
• It was basically an inside day. .
• Whether you're looking at the VIX or .
• the US dollar index or the S&P 500, they all had inside days. .
• So yesterday was a date of indecision, a pause day. .
• Now we're looking for some action .
• on Thursday and it looks like it is going to be to the downside. .
• Now an interesting thing has come up this .
• week that I want you to look at, and that's the fact that moving averages .
• apparently are stopping much of the US market at the moment. .
• Looking at the S&P 500 SPY ETF, you can see that we've traded up .
• to the 200 day moving average on Tuesday and then backed off. .
• Nothing's broken down so far, but it is acting as resistance. .
• And looking at the Q's for the Nasdaq .
• 100, it's the 100 day moving average that's acting as resistance. .
• And looking at the I shares for the Russell 2000, .
• it is the 200 day moving average that is acting as resistance. .
• Now, if the moving averages are holding .
• some of the market in check at the moment on the way up, we should also expect them .
• to act as potential support on the way back down. .
• Now, people who follow moving averages often follow trend lines as well. .
• And so there's a nice uptrend line for the SPY ETF. .
• So we're going to be looking to see if .
• the moving averages can hold us on the way back down and if the trend line can hold, .
• if those start to break, that's a more bearish situation and we .
• would expect the market to go back down and retest the early October low. .
• None of those things have happened yet. .
• The only thing that's happened so far is .
• that moving average resistance has held us in check. .
• Now, looking at the nasdaq, it's a different situation than the SPY ETF. .
• It's also a different situation to the dow .
• and the TSX, which have been able to break out above the 200 day moving average. .
• You can see that the recent low was just .
• slightly higher than the low from early October. .
• And so we have less padding on the way back down for the nasdaq than we do .
• for the SPY ETF, for the S&P 500, or for the I shares for the Russell 2000, .
• which made it up to the 200 day moving average. .
• So we'll be watching both the moving averages and trendline support as possible .
• clues of which way the market wants to go next. .
• Now, as I mentioned, .
• the down the TSX broke out above the 200 day moving average. .
• And of course, that could be a temporary situation. .
• We certainly didn't make a breakout above .
• the summer highs just yet, so that it may not be moving average. .
• Resistance is holding us in check. .
• It could be the highs from the summer that are currently holding us in check. .
• Now, one of the main reasons that the TSX .
• has been able to move up above its 200 day moving average has been the energy sector. .
• Unfortunately, that looks like it's coming to an end. .
• We've spent some time up here trying to break out above the highs from back .
• in late spring and unfortunately, we have not been able to do that so far. .
• Just a quick comment on this chart. .
• This chart is centered on the middle .
• of the screen and so we keep price in the middle of the screen. .
• That's also true of this chart. .
• And the reason for that is that we want .
• the ability to be able to show projections to the upside or to the downside. .
• If we use have the chart, .
• as you would normally look at a chart where the price gets to go right up .
• to the top, then we don't have the ability to show any additional projections. .
• So this is the Ishares for the TSX Energy Sector. .
• And you can see that we're up at the top .
• of the Panic Zones here and we've started to fade. .
• Certainly we had a recent buy signal. .
• Of course, when you're looking at opportunities, .
• the low risk opportunities come off the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• The high risk opportunities show up at the top of the Panic Zones and that's .
• where a new buy signal is less likely to succeed. .
• And that is probably going to happen to the eye shares for the TSX Energy Sector. .
• On Thursday, we need to close below 1692. .
• Now, when we look at crude oil, crude oil has been trendless for a while now. .
• The pros, yes, they're in control, but barely. .
• So there has been no enthusiasm for crude oil for quite a while. .
• That has not stopped people from putting money in the Energy Sector. .
• Crude oil is currently on a sell signal. .
• Energy stocks are still on a buy signal. .
• We're trading lower this morning, trying to hold 81.25. .
• If that breaks, then look for a move back down to $75 now in the US. .
• I follow the SPY Energy ETF. .
• And again, it looks like it's fading. .
• It traded up just above the highs .
• from back in the late spring, but has not seen any momentum up here. .
• We're having trouble at 93.75 on Thursday. .
• If we get a close below 90.50, .
• that would put us back on a sell signal that we were on last week. .
• And again, when you're looking at new buy signals at the top of the Panic Zones, .
• those are the riskiest buy signals to take. .
• They're the least likely to continue to the upside. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation with a quick look at Tesla. .
• Tesla hasn't really participated in the recent rally. .
• We've got Apple ranked as a 6, .
• amazon ranked as a 4, and Tesla currently ranked as a 1. .
• We need to close above 203.93 on Thursday. .
• Not expecting that to happen as it's trading lower this morning. .
• You can see the pros have been in control since late September and went through .
• the whole month of October into November not being in control. .
• We've been clustering around the 187.50 .
• level for the last week, closed just below it yesterday. .
• If we take out last week's low, .
• then 156 and then 125 are the next targets to the downside. .
• I wouldn't be surprised to see some .
• psychological support at 150 if we do break down below last week's low. .
• Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
• The stock index futures have continued .
• to move lower since I started this presentation. .
• Dow future is currently down 340 points, .
• so we are definitely looking for some selling at the Open on Thursday morning. .
• The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning. .
• Enjoy your day. .