- Good morning everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here
from theuptrend.com in the premarket. .
- This morning stock index futures are down .
- across the board, being led
lower by technology stocks. .
- Dow futures are currently down 250 points. .
- Commodities are mixed. .
- We've got gold and crude oil lower,
while not natural gas is higher. .
- On Thursday morning. .
- Let's start off this morning's
presentation with a little housekeeping. .
- Over the past couple of weeks, .
- we've been trying to perfect our early
morning workflow so that we could not only .
- publish in English,
but publish in multiple languages. .
- This is to help our business partners .
- around the world and things
are going pretty good. .
- What we have come up with a decision today
and that is to just publish the English .
- version first and then the translated
versions will be available 1 hour later. .
- And so we're starting that this morning. .
- And so if you're waiting .
- for the translated version,
just look and see when you get the English .
- version and the translated version
will be available in the same place. .
- You just have to click on the icons
at the bottom of the screen and you'll be .
- able to get the translated
version 1 hour later. .
- Now there's really not too much to say
about yesterday's trading activity. .
- It was basically an inside day. .
- Whether you're looking at the VIX or .
- the US dollar index or the S&P 500,
they all had inside days. .
- So yesterday was a date
of indecision, a pause day. .
- Now we're looking for some action .
- on Thursday and it looks like it
is going to be to the downside. .
- Now an interesting thing has come up this .
- week that I want you to look at,
and that's the fact that moving averages .
- apparently are stopping much
of the US market at the moment. .
- Looking at the S&P 500 SPY ETF,
you can see that we've traded up .
- to the 200 day moving average
on Tuesday and then backed off. .
- Nothing's broken down so far,
but it is acting as resistance. .
- And looking at the Q's for the Nasdaq .
- 100, it's the 100 day moving average
that's acting as resistance. .
- And looking at the I shares
for the Russell 2000, .
- it is the 200 day moving average
that is acting as resistance. .
- Now, if the moving averages are holding .
- some of the market in check at the moment
on the way up, we should also expect them .
- to act as potential support
on the way back down. .
- Now, people who follow moving averages
often follow trend lines as well. .
- And so there's a nice uptrend
line for the SPY ETF. .
- So we're going to be looking to see if .
- the moving averages can hold us on the way
back down and if the trend line can hold, .
- if those start to break,
that's a more bearish situation and we .
- would expect the market to go back
down and retest the early October low. .
- None of those things have happened yet. .
- The only thing that's happened so far is .
- that moving average resistance
has held us in check. .
- Now, looking at the nasdaq, it's a
different situation than the SPY ETF. .
- It's also a different situation to the dow .
- and the TSX, which have been able to break
out above the 200 day moving average. .
- You can see that the recent low was just .
- slightly higher than
the low from early October. .
- And so we have less padding on the way
back down for the nasdaq than we do .
- for the SPY ETF, for the S&P 500,
or for the I shares for the Russell 2000, .
- which made it up to the 200
day moving average. .
- So we'll be watching both the moving
averages and trendline support as possible .
- clues of which way
the market wants to go next. .
- Now, as I mentioned, .
- the down the TSX broke out above
the 200 day moving average. .
- And of course,
that could be a temporary situation. .
- We certainly didn't make a breakout above .
- the summer highs just yet,
so that it may not be moving average. .
- Resistance is holding us in check. .
- It could be the highs from the summer
that are currently holding us in check. .
- Now, one of the main reasons that the TSX .
- has been able to move up above its 200 day
moving average has been the energy sector. .
- Unfortunately, that looks
like it's coming to an end. .
- We've spent some time up here trying
to break out above the highs from back .
- in late spring and unfortunately,
we have not been able to do that so far. .
- Just a quick comment on this chart. .
- This chart is centered on the middle .
- of the screen and so we keep price
in the middle of the screen. .
- That's also true of this chart. .
- And the reason for that is that we want .
- the ability to be able to show projections
to the upside or to the downside. .
- If we use have the chart, .
- as you would normally look at a chart
where the price gets to go right up .
- to the top, then we don't have the ability
to show any additional projections. .
- So this is the Ishares
for the TSX Energy Sector. .
- And you can see that we're up at the top .
- of the Panic Zones here
and we've started to fade. .
- Certainly we had a recent buy signal. .
- Of course, when you're looking
at opportunities, .
- the low risk opportunities come
off the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
- The high risk opportunities show up
at the top of the Panic Zones and that's .
- where a new buy signal is
less likely to succeed. .
- And that is probably going to happen to
the eye shares for the TSX Energy Sector. .
- On Thursday, we need to close below 1692. .
- Now, when we look at crude oil, crude
oil has been trendless for a while now. .
- The pros, yes, they're
in control, but barely. .
- So there has been no enthusiasm
for crude oil for quite a while. .
- That has not stopped people from putting
money in the Energy Sector. .
- Crude oil is currently on a sell signal. .
- Energy stocks are still on a buy signal. .
- We're trading lower this morning,
trying to hold 81.25. .
- If that breaks, then look for a move
back down to $75 now in the US. .
- I follow the SPY Energy ETF. .
- And again, it looks like it's fading. .
- It traded up just above the highs .
- from back in the late spring,
but has not seen any momentum up here. .
- We're having trouble at 93.75 on Thursday. .
- If we get a close below 90.50, .
- that would put us back on a sell
signal that we were on last week. .
- And again, when you're looking at new buy
signals at the top of the Panic Zones, .
- those are the riskiest
buy signals to take. .
- They're the least likely
to continue to the upside. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation
with a quick look at Tesla. .
- Tesla hasn't really participated
in the recent rally. .
- We've got Apple ranked as a 6, .
- amazon ranked as a 4,
and Tesla currently ranked as a 1. .
- We need to close above
203.93 on Thursday. .
- Not expecting that to happen as
it's trading lower this morning. .
- You can see the pros have been in control
since late September and went through .
- the whole month of October
into November not being in control. .
- We've been clustering around the 187.50 .
- level for the last week,
closed just below it yesterday. .
- If we take out last week's low, .
- then 156 and then 125 are
the next targets to the downside. .
- I wouldn't be surprised to see some .
- psychological support at 150 if we
do break down below last week's low. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for this
morning's presentation. .
- The stock index futures have continued .
- to move lower since I
started this presentation. .
- Dow future is currently down 340 points, .
- so we are definitely looking for some
selling at the Open on Thursday morning. .
- The next time you'll hear
my voice is on Friday morning. .
- Enjoy your day. .