Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this .
weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
Let's start off with Little Housekeeping. .
We are coming into a long weekend this Thursday. .
US markets will be closed for Thanksgiving. .
They'll be open half a day on Friday, which is usually a very a quiet day. .
Now historically, going into a long weekend is bullish for the market. .
And so even if there's a little downward pressure this week, that might be buffered .
with the fact that we're coming into a long weekend. .
Now we're going to take Thursday and Friday off. .
Yes, the Canadian markets will be open on Thursday, but there will be very little .
activity as there will be no adult supervision from the US market. .
Let's start off looking at a couple of monthly charts. .
And the TSX is up by 2.86 percent .
for the month of November, while the S&P 500 is a little behind, up 2.41 percent. .
Now, if we drill down to the weekly charts, the S&P 500 is on its second week .
of a buy signal here and we pulled back a little down .69%. .
Now the Nasdaq was down 1.18%. It is still on a weekly Sell Signal. .
That has not changed for the Nasdaq. .
Looking at the TSX, you can see that we had an inside week .
and pulled back just about the same as the S&P 500. .
Now when you're looking up, you're looking for possible areas of resistance. .
Sometimes it's a previous peak, sometimes it's a trend line, .
sometimes it's a moving average and sometimes it's our price targets. .
Right now I know that there are many .
market participants watching the SPY ETF at the 200 day moving average. .
So we're back down to daily charts right .
now and the 200 day is acting as resistance. .
The 100 day moving average is acting as support. .
So if that 100 day moving average .
continues to act as support and we don't break down below that nice uptrend line, .
things should be OK for the rest of November. .
Of course, looking at the Nasdaq, .
the Nasdaq has not been leading the market for the past month or so. .
And we've got the Nasdaq using the 100 day .
moving average as resistance and the 50 day moving average as support. .
And then we've got a broader look at the US market. .
Looking at the Ishares for the Russell 2000. .
Again, we're using the 200 day moving averages, resistance, .
the 100 day moving average as support, and we're having a nice uptrend line there. .
And so as long as the moving averages .
and the uptrend line continue to act as support, we should be okay. .
Now, the TSX has a different problem. .
It's trading above the moving averages, .
using the two to day moving average as support. .
And we'll take a look at the problem it's .
got with the highs from back in the summer. .
And then taking a broader look at the Canadian market. .
Looking at the venture exchange. .
It is still using the 50 day moving average as resistance. .
Now just like the TSX, the Dow has been trading above the 200 day moving average. .
And in both cases, both the Ishares for the TSX 60 .
and the Dow Diamonds have not hit the summer highs just yet. .
Our next mathematical target for the Ishears for the TSX 60 is 31.25. .
For the Dow diamonds it's 343.75. .
But it's important to remember .
that the market faded just below those levels back in August. .
And so if we were to hit our price targets .
that would give us new highs for this move. .
But we seem to be fading right now. .
And if you look at the Dow Diamonds you .
can see we have a new early warning signal up there at the top of the screen and we .
also have a new early warning signal for the eyeshares for the TSX 60. .
So that gives me a little bit of concern. .
There has not been any aggressive selling just yet. .
There certainly was on Thursday, .
but we had a reversal in the market going into the close. .
So no damage has been done so far. .
But I would certainly want to stop looking .
for buying opportunities up at this level and I'd start looking for selling .
opportunities even though I don't have a reason or catalyst to do so just yet. .
It's important to get mentally prepared. .
One of the tools we help get, .
to help us get mentally prepared, of course, is to look at the VIX. .
The VIX had an inside week closed higher on the week. .
We need a close this coming Friday above .
29.82 to change our long term view on the market from bullish to bearish .
and then on a short term basis coming into Monday's trading action. .
If we get a close on Monday above 25 51, that would certainly change our mind .
on a short term basis from being bullish to bearish. .
Now we've recently started to focus .
on the correlation between the US dollar index and the stock market. .
As the US dollar index started to pull back over the past couple of months, .
the stock market started to move up, still holding 106.25. .
And as the stock market moved lower this week, the US dollar index closed higher. .
We're still holding the 200 day moving .
average and as long as that holds, that maybe bears for the stock market. .
If the US dollar index starts to break down below the 200 day moving average .
and the 106.25 level, of course that could be positive for stocks. .
On Friday we had an inside day, so not expecting a buy signal anytime soon. .
But if the US dollar index just continues .
to move higher, that could put downward pressure on the stock market. .
Let's finish off today's presentation taking a quick look at commodities. .
And these charts are not going to be very .
bullish for the Canadian stock market, but they could help fight inflation so, .
first of all, we're looking at the price of copper. .
And copper had a nice big bearish reversal week. .
So did the price of gold, down $22, and so did the price of silver. .
Now, bearish reversal weeks are one week events or 1 bar events. .
They still need to be confirmed. .
So we need to see a lower close this coming Friday for each of these metals .
to tell us that the top is in for this particular move. .
That hasn't happened yet. .
But while we're waiting to see if that happens or not, you really want to be .
on your guard if you're involved in stocks related to any of these metals. .
Now, looking at crude oil. .
Crude oil is down 9.3% on the week, so that's certainly helping fight inflation. .
We're trying to hold a recent low there at $75. .
If we start breaking 75, then 62.50 comes into play. .
And there's natural gas up 7.72% of the week. .
Inside week. Certainly no new trend for natural gas. .
Then looking at a couple of commodities that are helping fight inflation. .
.
Another big down week for coffee making. .
A new low for this move and a new low for 2022. .
And then we've got lumber. .
We like to check in on lumber and see what's going on. .
Lumber broke the $500 level a while ago. .
If we look back to the left hand side of the screen, you can see the nice big .
high that we made when everybody was panicking back in 2021. .
In 2022, we made a lower high and now we're making lower lows. .
There is a big gap between 500 and 250. .
Of course, you can do the math or you can .
just look at the daily charts and 437.50 was the next target. .
And then 375. .
If we take out the lows from back .
in September, then 375 is certainly a legitimate target to the downside. .
OK, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
Again, this is a holiday shortened week in the US. .
That usually has a bullish bias to it. .
Now, a bullish bias does not guarantee .
that we close the week on a positive note, but it certainly can help dampen .
the spirits of people wanting to sell into the market this week. .
So it could buffer some of any downward pressure we see this coming week. .
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .