- Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com with this .
- weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing Television. .
- Let's start off with Little Housekeeping. .
- We are coming into a long
weekend this Thursday. .
- US markets will be
closed for Thanksgiving. .
- They'll be open half a day on Friday,
which is usually a very a quiet day. .
- Now historically, going into a long
weekend is bullish for the market. .
- And so even if there's a little downward
pressure this week, that might be buffered .
- with the fact that we're
coming into a long weekend. .
- Now we're going to take
Thursday and Friday off. .
- Yes, the Canadian markets will be open
on Thursday, but there will be very little .
- activity as there will be no adult
supervision from the US market. .
- Let's start off looking
at a couple of monthly charts. .
- And the TSX is up by 2.86 percent .
- for the month of November, while the S&P
500 is a little behind, up 2.41 percent. .
- Now, if we drill down to the weekly
charts, the S&P 500 is on its second week .
- of a buy signal here and we pulled
back a little down .69%. .
- Now the Nasdaq was down 1.18%. It
is still on a weekly Sell Signal. .
- That has not changed for the Nasdaq. .
- Looking at the TSX,
you can see that we had an inside week .
- and pulled back just about
the same as the S&P 500. .
- Now when you're looking up, you're
looking for possible areas of resistance. .
- Sometimes it's a previous peak,
sometimes it's a trend line, .
- sometimes it's a moving average
and sometimes it's our price targets. .
- Right now I know that there are many .
- market participants watching the
SPY ETF at the 200 day moving average. .
- So we're back down to daily charts right .
- now and the 200 day is
acting as resistance. .
- The 100 day moving average
is acting as support. .
- So if that 100 day moving average .
- continues to act as support and we don't
break down below that nice uptrend line, .
- things should be OK
for the rest of November. .
- Of course, looking at the Nasdaq, .
- the Nasdaq has not been leading
the market for the past month or so. .
- And we've got the Nasdaq using the 100 day .
- moving average as resistance and the 50
day moving average as support. .
- And then we've got a broader
look at the US market. .
- Looking at the Ishares
for the Russell 2000. .
- Again, we're using the 200 day moving
averages, resistance, .
- the 100 day moving average as support, and
we're having a nice uptrend line there. .
- And so as long as the moving averages .
- and the uptrend line continue to act
as support, we should be okay. .
- Now, the TSX has a different problem. .
- It's trading above the moving averages, .
- using the two to day
moving average as support. .
- And we'll take a look at the problem it's .
- got with the highs
from back in the summer. .
- And then taking a broader
look at the Canadian market. .
- Looking at the venture exchange. .
- It is still using the 50 day
moving average as resistance. .
- Now just like the TSX, the Dow has been
trading above the 200 day moving average. .
- And in both cases,
both the Ishares for the TSX 60 .
- and the Dow Diamonds have not
hit the summer highs just yet. .
- Our next mathematical target for the
Ishears for the TSX 60 is 31.25. .
- For the Dow diamonds it's 343.75. .
- But it's important to remember .
- that the market faded just below
those levels back in August. .
- And so if we were to hit our price targets .
- that would give us new
highs for this move. .
- But we seem to be fading right now. .
- And if you look at the Dow Diamonds you .
- can see we have a new early warning signal
up there at the top of the screen and we .
- also have a new early warning signal
for the eyeshares for the TSX 60. .
- So that gives me a little bit of concern. .
- There has not been any
aggressive selling just yet. .
- There certainly was on Thursday, .
- but we had a reversal in the
market going into the close. .
- So no damage has been done so far. .
- But I would certainly want to stop looking .
- for buying opportunities up at this level
and I'd start looking for selling .
- opportunities even though I don't have
a reason or catalyst to do so just yet. .
- It's important to get mentally prepared. .
- One of the tools we help get, .
- to help us get mentally prepared,
of course, is to look at the VIX. .
- The VIX had an inside week
closed higher on the week. .
- We need a close this coming Friday above .
- 29.82 to change our long term view
on the market from bullish to bearish .
- and then on a short term basis coming
into Monday's trading action. .
- If we get a close on Monday above 25 51,
that would certainly change our mind .
- on a short term basis
from being bullish to bearish. .
- Now we've recently started to focus .
- on the correlation between the US
dollar index and the stock market. .
- As the US dollar index started to pull
back over the past couple of months, .
- the stock market started to move up,
still holding 106.25. .
- And as the stock market moved lower this
week, the US dollar index closed higher. .
- We're still holding the 200 day moving .
- average and as long as that holds,
that maybe bears for the stock market. .
- If the US dollar index starts to break
down below the 200 day moving average .
- and the 106.25 level, of course
that could be positive for stocks. .
- On Friday we had an inside day, so not
expecting a buy signal anytime soon. .
- But if the US dollar index just continues .
- to move higher, that could put
downward pressure on the stock market. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation
taking a quick look at commodities. .
- And these charts are not going to be very .
- bullish for the Canadian stock market,
but they could help fight inflation so, .
- first of all, we're looking
at the price of copper. .
- And copper had a nice big
bearish reversal week. .
- So did the price of gold, down $22,
and so did the price of silver. .
- Now, bearish reversal weeks are
one week events or 1 bar events. .
- They still need to be confirmed. .
- So we need to see a lower close this
coming Friday for each of these metals .
- to tell us that the top is
in for this particular move. .
- That hasn't happened yet. .
- But while we're waiting to see if
that happens or not, you really want to be .
- on your guard if you're involved
in stocks related to any of these metals. .
- Now, looking at crude oil. .
- Crude oil is down 9.3% on the week, so
that's certainly helping fight inflation. .
- We're trying to hold
a recent low there at $75. .
- If we start breaking 75,
then 62.50 comes into play. .
- And there's natural gas
up 7.72% of the week. .
- Inside week.
Certainly no new trend for natural gas. .
- Then looking at a couple of commodities
that are helping fight inflation. .
- .
- Another big down week for coffee making. .
- A new low for this move
and a new low for 2022. .
- And then we've got lumber. .
- We like to check in on lumber
and see what's going on. .
- Lumber broke the $500 level a while ago. .
- If we look back to the left hand side
of the screen, you can see the nice big .
- high that we made when everybody
was panicking back in 2021. .
- In 2022, we made a lower high
and now we're making lower lows. .
- There is a big gap between 500 and 250. .
- Of course, you can do the math or you can .
- just look at the daily charts
and 437.50 was the next target. .
- And then 375. .
- If we take out the lows from back .
- in September, then 375 is certainly
a legitimate target to the downside. .
- OK, folks, that is all for this
weekend's presentation. .
- Again, this is a holiday
shortened week in the US. .
- That usually has a bullish bias to it. .
- Now, a bullish bias does not guarantee .
- that we close the week on a positive note,
but it certainly can help dampen .
- the spirits of people wanting
to sell into the market this week. .
- So it could buffer some of any downward
pressure we see this coming week. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning. .