• Hello everyone, its Stephen Whiteside here .
• from TheUpTrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
• Well let's start off with the good news. .
• The good news is it was a pretty good week. .
• Any time you're coming into a long weekend it usually has a bullish bias to it. .
• Friday we saw US markets open for half day, very quiet trading. .
• The SPY volume for Friday was 30 million .
• and change, the previous Friday was 92 million and change. .
• So you can see the dramatic drop in volume on Friday. .
• So we're also coming up to the end of the month that also has a bullish bias to it. .
• And I think after month end that's where .
• things should probably stop and we should start to head lower from there. .
• Probably not on the first trading day of December but certainly not expecting the .
• bullish momentum to continue into December at this time. .
• Now let's move on and take a look at the VIX. .
• The VIX was weaker again, which is .
• supported for higher stock prices, down another 11% and change. .
• Things would change this week if the VIX closed above 29.13 this coming Friday. .
• Looking at the daily charts you can see very quiet trading on Friday. .
• The VIX had an inside day. .
• We're looking for a close on Monday above $24.10. If that doesn't happen of course .
• that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• Now looking at the daily panic zone chart for the VIX and we're mostly going to use .
• weekly charts in this presentation, but we will flag when we show daily charts. .
• You can see we're currently ranked as zero. .
• We're now at the bottom of the panic zones. .
• The pressure zone has formed. .
• This is the time and place we look for a reversal. .
• Now we've been following the Dow closely for the last month or so. .
• I've talked more about the Dow in the last month than I have in the last 22 years. .
• But there's the Dow up at the top of the Panic Zones. .
• It hit our next price target on Friday. .
• Our next price target was 343. 75. .
• We got as high as 343. 80. .
• So just $0.05 above our target. .
• Now not only is this a daily target, but .
• it is also a weekly target, which makes it much more significant. .
• And as you can see it held us in check back in the summer. .
• Now looking at the eyeshares for the TSX 60, it did something similar on Friday. .
• It also hit our next price target which is 31. .
• 25. .
• So in both cases we've broken out above the summer high, but just barely. .
• It's not a major or significant breakout at all. .
• Now the high for the I shares for the TSX 60 on Friday was 31. .
• 31, while our price target is at 31. 25. .
• And it is also a significant target .
• because not only is it a daily, but it's also a weekly target. .
• And that weekly target held us in check back in the summer. .
• Now, I think the stock market is about to top here. .
• Of course, there's no evidence that that change has started. .
• So what we're looking at is possibilities, .
• and we certainly don't have any triggers to take any action. .
• The only trigger that you have so far is if you were trading the Dow diamonds or if .
• you were trading the Ishares for the TSX 60. .
• You had orders which got filled on Friday. .
• So congratulations. .
• You've taken some money off the table, but .
• you have no reason to actually completely liquidate a position at this time. .
• Now, this is still a risk off rally, and .
• that hasn't changed this week, and that's rather unfortunate. .
• Being in a risk off rally is very .
• uncomfortable because more and more money is going into fewer and fewer stocks, and .
• that's why you have the market being let higher by a stock like McDonald's and a .
• stock like Tesla is going in the exact opposite direction. .
• So people with deeper pockets than you and I and more resources than you and I are .
• staying away from anything technology related right now. .
• And it doesn't really matter what area of technology. .
• There's one area that's working. .
• But if we look at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, we are still on a Weekly Sell signal. .
• No change for any of the ARK ETFs. .
• Whether you're looking at fintech, you're looking at Genomics, you're looking at the .
• ARK Innovation ETF itself, which is heavily weighted in Tesla. .
• Then you've got the Ark Industrials, you've got Internet, and you've got space. .
• Money is not going into any of those areas .
• of the market right now, and it's certainly not going into social media. .
• Now, let me pose a question to you. .
• How healthy do you think the market is if investors are only willing to put money .
• into the stocks of yesterday and ignore the stocks of tomorrow? .
• That tells me the market's not in a very healthy position at this time. .
• Of course, things could change over time. .
• They just didn't change this week. .
• Now, one area that the bulls can hang .
• their hat on is the Chip Sector, which did pop a couple of weeks ago. .
• But you can see that there's been no upward momentum since then. .
• Even on the back of the big announcement that Warren Buffett took a big position in .
• Taiwan Semiconductor, you can see that popped and then treaded water this week. .
• Now, there is one symbol you're going to watch closely this week. .
• This could be the make or break symbol for the week, and that's the spider ETF. .
• We're currently ranked at nine, so we're not overly overbought at the moment. .
• We're up in the overbought area, but we could still be ranked at ten. .
• We could still certainly move higher from here. .
• We are stuck at the 200 day moving average. .
• That seems to be an area of resistance right now. .
• And just above that is our next price target. .
• Now 406.25 is not only a weekly, but it's a daily target. .
• So when they match up like that, that is a more significant line in the sand. .
• And right now when we look up to the .
• 406.25 to get there, we start to move into an open gap. .
• Of course, an open gap is a hole. .
• It's a big pothole in the road that investors remember. .
• Anybody who was buying up there in September certainly remembers that day. .
• And the market has a memory. .
• And right now the bottom of that open gap .
• is at 403.10. We got as high as 402.93, I believe on the week. .
• On Friday. .
• It was 402.91. So less than $0.20 away from the bottom of that gap. .
• So far you can see the fact that we haven't been able to run up and run into .
• the gap that at the bottom of the gap is acting as resistance. .
• Then if we can break through the bottom of .
• the gap, 406.25, and then the top of the gap is 408.46. .
• So there's some clustering there, there's some area of resistance that the market .
• would need to get up and over and I'm not sure it's going to be able to do that. .
• Now, looking down, if you're watching the .
• SPY ETF on Monday, we need to close below 392. .
• 34 to give us a sell signal. .
• And of course, if that doesn't happen, .
• that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Now these next couple of charts aren't designed to scare anyone because we will .
• certainly react to whatever the market gives us going forward. .
• But I've looked at this chart several .
• times over the past month and what this particular piece of software from Timing .
• Solutions gives us is a similarity engine and what that engine does. .
• And in this case, we're analyzing the SPY ETF in this particular chart. .
• I can't show the whole thing on the screen, but it goes back to when the .
• Spider ETF actually went public back in the this particular engine will go and .
• take a snapshot of the current market situation and see if there's any times in .
• history when the market looked like this before. .
• And the closest match that we could come to was back in 2000 to 2002. .
• That is the closest match with the current market situation. .
• And the reason I'm showing you this is not .
• to scare you, but just to let you know that from where we are right now, we could .
• still go much further next year to the downside than where we are right now. .
• That is also true for the Nasdaq 100. .
• And again, the similarity engine went back in time and said, hey, where are we right .
• now compared to where we've been in the past? .
• And it matches us up with what happened in 2000 to 2002. .
• And again, the market can go much lower from where we are right now. .
• Now, right now, we're still on a weekly sell signal for the Nasdaq. .
• So if the Nasdaq wanted to go much lower .
• from here, we would be on the right side of that market position. .
• Now, here's the last set of charts I want to use to look at the stock market, and .
• it's one that pretty well everybody can understand. .
• This particular chart is looking at the .
• percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average. .
• Back in the summer, we used a similar chart. .
• We looked at a percentage of stocks currently trading above their five day .
• moving average because we were looking at a smaller term time frame. .
• Now we're looking at the bigger time frame. .
• So this is a percentage of stocks .
• currently trading above the 50 day moving average. .
• Now, when you get up to these levels, you're getting close to 100%. .
• And when a market gets up to 100%, that rarely happens. .
• But when you get up to that range, that's .
• the time and place when the market usually turns around. .
• I don't know what the catalyst is going to be for that, but if we go back in time, .
• the peaks on this particular chart match up with the peaks in the stock market. .
• Whether it's the high from August, the .
• high from late May, early June, or the high from late March, early April, .
• anytime that particular indicator was up near the top of the range, that's the time .
• and place where the market started reverse. .
• Now, the last time that we saw a high like this was back in August. .
• If we look at the Canadian chart and this is for a longer time frame, but this is .
• the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average. .
• We have not been this high in a few years. .
• So the Canadian market is very, very overbought at the present time. .
• Now, being overbought does not guarantee .
• that the market completely reverses and heads sharply lower. .
• An overbought condition can be alleviated by just treading water. .
• We could tread water for a couple of weeks, and the percentage of stocks .
• trading by the 50 day moving average could come down. .
• And that does not mean the market is going to crash. .
• But it certainly tells me that the S&P 500 trading up at its 200 day moving average .
• may be as high as we can go at the present time. .
• Now, as I mentioned for this particular chart, which is a longer term time frame .
• than the previous chart, the peaks that we see on this chart match .
• up with all the peaks on the TSX that we've seen over the past couple of years. .
• Let's finish off taking a look at the weekly commodity prices. .
• And last week we had big bearish reversal .
• signals, but we didn't see fall through to the downside. .
• For most of the charts, copper was down slightly. .
• That's not a major indicator that copper .
• is going to continue to go lower from here. .
• It's still on a weekly buy signal. .
• Gold actually closed higher on the week by just $3, but that is better than where it .
• was during the week when it dipped right into the channel. .
• And Silver also dipped into the channel .
• too, and it was higher on the week, up 2.31 percent. .
• So some of those bearish reversal signals .
• that we saw last week didn't really see any fall through to the downside. .
• Now on the other hand, energy starting off .
• with crude oil was down nearly 5% on the week, nearly touching the $75 level. .
• And of course, $75 is our big line in the sand. .
• If you look at a daily chart below 75, 68. .
• 75 would be our next target to the downside. .
• If we start breaking through 75. .
• Now, looking at the weekly panic zone .
• chart, you can see that we are currently projecting down to the $50 level. .
• Of course, to get there, we've got to break through quite a bit of support. .
• Now natural gas on the other hand, had another wild week, closing up 6.27%, .
• trading above the upper channel line, but closing back in the middle of the channel. .
• So another wild week. .
• It was positive, but still no weekly buy signal for natural gas. .
• And you can see for natural gas, the pros .
• do not look like they want to take control at the present time. .
• Okay folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
• We came into a long weekend. .
• Things are still looking pretty bullish. .
• We should expect to go into month end looking pretty bullish. .
• And then beyond that, I wouldn't be .
• surprised if we saw some selling in the month of December. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• The next time you will hear my voice .
• is on Tuesday morning video you. .