- Hello everyone, its Stephen Whiteside here .
- from TheUpTrend.com with this weekend's
edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well let's start off with the good news. .
- The good news is it was
a pretty good week. .
- Any time you're coming into a long weekend
it usually has a bullish bias to it. .
- Friday we saw US markets open for
half day, very quiet trading. .
- The SPY volume for Friday was 30 million .
- and change, the previous Friday
was 92 million and change. .
- So you can see the dramatic
drop in volume on Friday. .
- So we're also coming up to the end of the
month that also has a bullish bias to it. .
- And I think after month end that's where .
- things should probably stop and we
should start to head lower from there. .
- Probably not on the first trading day of
December but certainly not expecting the .
- bullish momentum to continue
into December at this time. .
- Now let's move on and
take a look at the VIX. .
- The VIX was weaker again, which is .
- supported for higher stock prices,
down another 11% and change. .
- Things would change this week if the VIX
closed above 29.13 this coming Friday. .
- Looking at the daily charts you can
see very quiet trading on Friday. .
- The VIX had an inside day. .
- We're looking for a close on Monday above
$24.10. If that doesn't happen of course .
- that upper channel line is going
to continue to move lower daily. .
- Now looking at the daily panic zone chart
for the VIX and we're mostly going to use .
- weekly charts in this presentation, but
we will flag when we show daily charts. .
- You can see we're
currently ranked as zero. .
- We're now at the bottom
of the panic zones. .
- The pressure zone has formed. .
- This is the time and place
we look for a reversal. .
- Now we've been following the Dow
closely for the last month or so. .
- I've talked more about the Dow in the last
month than I have in the last 22 years. .
- But there's the Dow up at
the top of the Panic Zones. .
- It hit our next price target on Friday. .
- Our next price target was 343.
75. .
- We got as high as 343.
80. .
- So just $0.05 above our target. .
- Now not only is this a daily target, but .
- it is also a weekly target, which
makes it much more significant. .
- And as you can see it held us
in check back in the summer. .
- Now looking at the eyeshares for the TSX
60, it did something similar on Friday. .
- It also hit our next
price target which is 31. .
- 25. .
- So in both cases we've broken out above
the summer high, but just barely. .
- It's not a major or
significant breakout at all. .
- Now the high for the I shares
for the TSX 60 on Friday was 31. .
- 31, while our price target is at 31.
25. .
- And it is also a significant target .
- because not only is it a daily,
but it's also a weekly target. .
- And that weekly target held us
in check back in the summer. .
- Now, I think the stock
market is about to top here. .
- Of course, there's no evidence
that that change has started. .
- So what we're looking at is possibilities, .
- and we certainly don't have any
triggers to take any action. .
- The only trigger that you have so far is
if you were trading the Dow diamonds or if .
- you were trading the
Ishares for the TSX 60. .
- You had orders which got filled on Friday. .
- So congratulations. .
- You've taken some money off the table, but .
- you have no reason to actually completely
liquidate a position at this time. .
- Now, this is still a risk off rally, and .
- that hasn't changed this week,
and that's rather unfortunate. .
- Being in a risk off rally is very .
- uncomfortable because more and more money
is going into fewer and fewer stocks, and .
- that's why you have the market being let
higher by a stock like McDonald's and a .
- stock like Tesla is going in
the exact opposite direction. .
- So people with deeper pockets than you and
I and more resources than you and I are .
- staying away from anything
technology related right now. .
- And it doesn't really matter
what area of technology. .
- There's one area that's working. .
- But if we look at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq
100, we are still on a Weekly Sell signal. .
- No change for any of the ARK ETFs. .
- Whether you're looking at fintech, you're
looking at Genomics, you're looking at the .
- ARK Innovation ETF itself, which
is heavily weighted in Tesla. .
- Then you've got the Ark Industrials,
you've got Internet, and you've got space. .
- Money is not going into any of those areas .
- of the market right now, and it's
certainly not going into social media. .
- Now, let me pose a question to you. .
- How healthy do you think the market is if
investors are only willing to put money .
- into the stocks of yesterday and
ignore the stocks of tomorrow? .
- That tells me the market's not in a
very healthy position at this time. .
- Of course, things could change over time. .
- They just didn't change this week. .
- Now, one area that the bulls can hang .
- their hat on is the Chip Sector,
which did pop a couple of weeks ago. .
- But you can see that there's been
no upward momentum since then. .
- Even on the back of the big announcement
that Warren Buffett took a big position in .
- Taiwan Semiconductor, you can see that
popped and then treaded water this week. .
- Now, there is one symbol you're
going to watch closely this week. .
- This could be the make or break symbol
for the week, and that's the spider ETF. .
- We're currently ranked at nine, so we're
not overly overbought at the moment. .
- We're up in the overbought area, but
we could still be ranked at ten. .
- We could still certainly
move higher from here. .
- We are stuck at the 200
day moving average. .
- That seems to be an area
of resistance right now. .
- And just above that is
our next price target. .
- Now 406.25 is not only a weekly,
but it's a daily target. .
- So when they match up like that, that
is a more significant line in the sand. .
- And right now when we look up to the .
- 406.25 to get there, we start
to move into an open gap. .
- Of course, an open gap is a hole. .
- It's a big pothole in the
road that investors remember. .
- Anybody who was buying up there in
September certainly remembers that day. .
- And the market has a memory. .
- And right now the bottom of that open gap .
- is at 403.10. We got as high as
402.93, I believe on the week. .
- On Friday. .
- It was 402.91. So less than $0.20
away from the bottom of that gap. .
- So far you can see the fact that we
haven't been able to run up and run into .
- the gap that at the bottom of
the gap is acting as resistance. .
- Then if we can break through the bottom of .
- the gap, 406.25, and then the
top of the gap is 408.46. .
- So there's some clustering there, there's
some area of resistance that the market .
- would need to get up and over and I'm not
sure it's going to be able to do that. .
- Now, looking down, if you're watching the .
- SPY ETF on Monday, we
need to close below 392. .
- 34 to give us a sell signal. .
- And of course, if that doesn't happen, .
- that lower channel line is going
to continue to move higher daily. .
- Now these next couple of charts aren't
designed to scare anyone because we will .
- certainly react to whatever the
market gives us going forward. .
- But I've looked at this chart several .
- times over the past month and what this
particular piece of software from Timing .
- Solutions gives us is a similarity
engine and what that engine does. .
- And in this case, we're analyzing the
SPY ETF in this particular chart. .
- I can't show the whole thing on the
screen, but it goes back to when the .
- Spider ETF actually went public back in
the this particular engine will go and .
- take a snapshot of the current market
situation and see if there's any times in .
- history when the market
looked like this before. .
- And the closest match that we could
come to was back in 2000 to 2002. .
- That is the closest match with
the current market situation. .
- And the reason I'm showing you this is not .
- to scare you, but just to let you know
that from where we are right now, we could .
- still go much further next year to the
downside than where we are right now. .
- That is also true for the Nasdaq 100. .
- And again, the similarity engine went back
in time and said, hey, where are we right .
- now compared to where
we've been in the past? .
- And it matches us up with what
happened in 2000 to 2002. .
- And again, the market can go much
lower from where we are right now. .
- Now, right now, we're still on a
weekly sell signal for the Nasdaq. .
- So if the Nasdaq wanted to go much lower .
- from here, we would be on the right
side of that market position. .
- Now, here's the last set of charts I want
to use to look at the stock market, and .
- it's one that pretty well
everybody can understand. .
- This particular chart is looking at the .
- percentage of stocks currently trading
above the 50 day moving average. .
- Back in the summer, we
used a similar chart. .
- We looked at a percentage of stocks
currently trading above their five day .
- moving average because we were
looking at a smaller term time frame. .
- Now we're looking at
the bigger time frame. .
- So this is a percentage of stocks .
- currently trading above
the 50 day moving average. .
- Now, when you get up to these levels,
you're getting close to 100%. .
- And when a market gets up to 100%,
that rarely happens. .
- But when you get up to that range, that's .
- the time and place when the
market usually turns around. .
- I don't know what the catalyst is going to
be for that, but if we go back in time, .
- the peaks on this particular chart match
up with the peaks in the stock market. .
- Whether it's the high from August, the .
- high from late May, early June, or the
high from late March, early April, .
- anytime that particular indicator was up
near the top of the range, that's the time .
- and place where the
market started reverse. .
- Now, the last time that we saw a
high like this was back in August. .
- If we look at the Canadian chart and this
is for a longer time frame, but this is .
- the percentage of stocks currently
trading above the 50 day moving average. .
- We have not been this high in a few years. .
- So the Canadian market is very, very
overbought at the present time. .
- Now, being overbought does not guarantee .
- that the market completely
reverses and heads sharply lower. .
- An overbought condition can be
alleviated by just treading water. .
- We could tread water for a couple of
weeks, and the percentage of stocks .
- trading by the 50 day moving
average could come down. .
- And that does not mean the
market is going to crash. .
- But it certainly tells me that the S&P 500
trading up at its 200 day moving average .
- may be as high as we can
go at the present time. .
- Now, as I mentioned for this particular
chart, which is a longer term time frame .
- than the previous chart,
the peaks that we see on this chart match .
- up with all the peaks on the TSX that
we've seen over the past couple of years. .
- Let's finish off taking a look
at the weekly commodity prices. .
- And last week we had big bearish reversal .
- signals, but we didn't see
fall through to the downside. .
- For most of the charts,
copper was down slightly. .
- That's not a major indicator that copper .
- is going to continue
to go lower from here. .
- It's still on a weekly buy signal. .
- Gold actually closed higher on the week by
just $3, but that is better than where it .
- was during the week when it
dipped right into the channel. .
- And Silver also dipped into the channel .
- too, and it was higher on
the week, up 2.31 percent. .
- So some of those bearish reversal signals .
- that we saw last week didn't really
see any fall through to the downside. .
- Now on the other hand, energy starting off .
- with crude oil was down nearly 5% on the
week, nearly touching the $75 level. .
- And of course, $75 is our
big line in the sand. .
- If you look at a daily chart below 75, 68. .
- 75 would be our next
target to the downside. .
- If we start breaking through 75. .
- Now, looking at the weekly panic zone .
- chart, you can see that we are currently
projecting down to the $50 level. .
- Of course, to get there, we've got to
break through quite a bit of support. .
- Now natural gas on the other hand, had
another wild week, closing up 6.27%, .
- trading above the upper channel line, but
closing back in the middle of the channel. .
- So another wild week. .
- It was positive, but still no
weekly buy signal for natural gas. .
- And you can see for natural gas, the pros .
- do not look like they want to
take control at the present time. .
- Okay folks, that is all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- We came into a long weekend. .
- Things are still looking pretty bullish. .
- We should expect to go into month
end looking pretty bullish. .
- And then beyond that, I wouldn't be .
- surprised if we saw some selling
in the month of December. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- The next time you will hear my voice .
- is on Tuesday morning video you. .