- Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Friday morning. .
- In the pre market this morning,
things are fairly quiet. .
- Employment numbers are coming out at 830.
So far. .
- Stock index futures are below fair value. .
- Commodities are mixed with crude oil .
- higher, while gold and natural gas
are slightly lower on Friday morning. .
- Now.
The US. .
- Stock market was rather subdued on
Thursday compared to Wednesday's trading .
- activity, but not so much
for the rest of the market. .
- Bond prices continued to move higher.
The US. .
- Dollar index continued to move lower,
making a new low for this move. .
- And we saw the VIX move lower on Thursday,
also making a new low for this move and .
- closing below the $20
potential support area. .
- Looking at the Dow Diamonds, you can see .
- that we closed slightly below the
previous day after making a new high. .
- That's also true for the SP 500. .
- The Nasdaq 100 closed a
little higher on the day. .
- And then looking at the Russell 2000, we .
- pulled back, not able to break
out above the November highs. .
- Now, things looked a little
different north of the border. .
- There's the I shares for this TSX 60 .
- putting in a new high yesterday
and closing higher on the day. .
- Now, at the same time, we did generate a .
- bearish reversal signal, and we
saw a lot of those on Thursday. .
- When we analyzed this one, you can see .
- that we actually closed lower than
we opened after making a new high. .
- So that gave us a bearish reversal signal. .
- A couple of things to consider when you're
looking at that signal, because it often .
- marks the top four move, and that
certainly could be the case here. .
- But at the end of the day,
we still closed higher. .
- And then we also did not close
below the previous days low. .
- Those would be the other two
indicators I would be looking at. .
- We did end up closing higher
on the day that's bullish. .
- And we certainly did not close
below the previous days low. .
- So that is also bullish. .
- Now, at the same time, we're watching the
Ishares for the TSX 60, the TSX itself hit .
- our next price target yesterday, so
that is certainly a measured move. .
- And we have certainly broke out above
the August highs, and that is bullish. .
- We'll just have to see if that
resistance holds over the next few days. .
- Now, what spurred the TSX on yesterday? .
- Well, gold was a major contributor, and .
- there's the price of gold shooting
up above the previous high. .
- And you can see that we
closed just above the 1812. .
- 50 level, and our next target is 1843. .
- 75 and then 1875. .
- Now, to get there, we need to
take out the highs from August. .
- So that is going to be the first level
of resistance we need to consider. .
- We certainly have not
broken away from the 1812. .
- 50 level.
We just closed above it. .
- So that is the first step. .
- It does not look like we're going to try .
- to do anything about creating
new highs on Friday. .
- Now, gold stocks followed
gold hire yesterday. .
- There's the TSX Global Gold Index
making a new high on Thursday. .
- And there's the GDX, also
making a new high on Thursday. .
- Now, bank stocks had a few
interesting moves yesterday. .
- There's the TSX Bank Index closing
at the upper channel line. .
- We saw a new high for the TD Bank at the
same time, CIBC cratered on Thursday. .
- And that's not something you see very
often in the Canadian banking sector. .
- Now in the US. .
- When we look at the SPDR Bank ETF, you can
see that it looks like I don't know what .
- it looks like, but that
is incredibly weird. .
- It's not something you see very often. .
- There are some banks that look fairly .
- normal right now, such as the
Bank of New York and JPMorgan. .
- But beyond that, a lot of US. .
- Banks look like this. .
- Now there's one financial institution the .
- world is watching closely,
and that is Credit Swiss. .
- It has made a series of
lower lows this week. .
- And if we look at a monthly chart, you can .
- see this financial institution
has been in a longterm downtrend. .
- Just for reference, compare that to Bank
of America, which in the same time period .
- was able to move up from $15 all the way
up to $50 before pulling back in 2022. .
- So they are certainly
two different animals. .
- Typically, during a rate tightening cycle, .
- some financial institution
will have problems. .
- Sometimes it's a lot,
sometimes it's one or two. .
- And people are betting money that during .
- this rate tightening cycle, Credit
Swiss is not going to make it through. .
- Now, looking at energy, crude always up .
- yesterday, not enough to
give us a buy signal. .
- Natural gas was down yesterday, not
enough to give us a sell signal. .
- Looking at energy stocks, the SPDR Energy
ETF is still treading water up here. .
- That's also true for equipment makers and .
- explorers, all still
on daily sell signals. .
- That's also true for the TSX Energy Index, .
- still on a sell signal
here, treading water. .
- Up at these levels, we're up at the top of .
- the panic zones, not able
to retest the summer highs. .
- And then if we look at the US market Spdr
Energy ETF, we were able to not only test .
- the summer highs, but
trade slightly above them. .
- In both cases, our panic zone charts
are projecting lower prices from here. .
- Of course, the weakness in any projection
is we don't know what we don't know. .
- And that is certainly true for any
of the projections that we make. .
- So for the SPDREnergy ETF, we're looking
for a move down to $75 at some point. .
- It certainly has not started yet. .
- The first indication that that may happen .
- is if we start closing
below the recent low. .
- Okay folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation. .
- We're waiting for appointment
numbers to come out at 830. .
- I'm going to publish this
as soon as possible. .
- And then the translated versions will
be available about an hour later. .
- Enjoy the rest of your day. .
- Enjoy your weekend. .
- And the next time you'll
hear my voice is on Sunday. .