- Hello everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here from the .
- uptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well, the Christmas season officially
started around here this weekend. .
- We went to the annual local community .
- Christmas concert at the Danforth Music
Hall and we had a wonderful afternoon. .
- The concert was amazing, as always. .
- It's just wonderful to see how much
local talent there is around here. .
- Now, we had a busy week, lots of noise, .
- but at the end of the
day, not much happened. .
- I still agree with this guy. .
- The stock market is about to top. .
- It might not do it on Monday, but I think .
- the stock market is working its
way to putting in a top right now. .
- Now, on Wednesday, we had the markets .
- overreaction to the Fed
Chairman's comments. .
- We saw the Dow up over 700 points. .
- Of course, that's the number the
media likes to follow the most. .
- And what I was looking for, it
seemed like a very suspicious day. .
- It seemed like a lot of short covering .
- during and after the
Fed Chairman's remarks. .
- And what we're looking for is some follow .
- through to the upside, some interest,
some new money to come into the market. .
- So if you follow the S&P 500 ETF, the spy, .
- on Wednesday it had over
144,000,000 shares traded. .
- On Thursday. .
- Only 76 million. .
- And on Friday it was
85 million and change. .
- So as you can see, we didn't see a lot of .
- new money come into the market
over the next couple of days. .
- Now, looking at the VIX on a weekly basis,
we are down another 7% and change right .
- down at the lows that we
haven't seen since the summer. .
- 18.75 is our mathematical target
both on the weekly and daily charts. .
- You can see that back in the spring,
the VIX bottoms just around 18.75. .
- That also happened in the summer and I'm .
- anticipating it to
happen right around now. .
- Looking at a daily chart, you
can see we're coming down. .
- We're actually broken through the lows
from back in August on a daily chart. .
- If you're following the market on Monday, .
- we're looking for a close
on the VIX above 22. .
- 66 on Monday to give us a new buy signal. .
- Of course, if that doesn't happen on .
- Monday, that upper channel line is
going to continue to move lower. .
- Let's continue on and look at some of
the other trends we've been following. .
- We've seen bonds move up over
the past couple of weeks. .
- Whether you're looking at
the 30 year bond or the TLT. .
- The TLT was actually up
over 4% on the week. .
- Big move for bonds. .
- Looking at the US Dollar Index in another
wild week, making a new low for this move, .
- it's starting to close and
trade below the 106.25 level. .
- We're still stuck to that level, so
we haven't broken away just yet. .
- And of course, lower US dollar is
supported for higher stock prices. .
- Looking at crude oil,
crude oil had a wild week. .
- It got down below $75 before Reversing .
- ended the week up $3.70. It's up another
fifty cents in the Sunday night trading. .
- Looking at gold. .
- Gold was up $41.70. 1875 is our
next target on the weekly charts. .
- On the daily charts, our
next target is 1843. .
- 75. .
- And if you look over to the left, you'll
see we faded that number back in August. .
- Now, so far we've seen some very
bullish charts for the stock market. .
- Whether you're looking at a
falling VIX or a falling US. .
- Dollar. .
- Those are both supported
for higher stock prices. .
- But when you actually look at the stock .
- market indices themselves, they look
like they're running out of steam. .
- And that's the theme I was
going with last weekend. .
- If we look at the Dow Diamonds
ETF, it was up .36 of a percent. .
- So a little over a third
of a percent on the week. .
- After making a new high, we're
trying to break out above 343. .
- 75 and we closed at 344.
74. .
- So $0.99 above our price target. .
- Looking at the SPY ETF for the SP 500, our .
- magic number is 406.25.
We closed at 406.91. .
- Now, these numbers that we're
hitting, these are profit targets. .
- You should be locking in some profits at .
- these levels, but certainly not
completely liquidating a position. .
- So 406.25. Now, when we look at the daily
chart, 406.25 is also a daily target. .
- We talked about the open gap over here. .
- That gap was filled this week. .
- The high from back in September was 411.
73. .
- We got as high as 410 this week
before pulling back on Thursday. .
- So we'll have to see if we can retest that .
- September high or if we can break out
above it this week, a lot of people were .
- dancing and screaming that we had broken
out above the 200 day moving average. .
- We haven't really broken away from it. .
- Yes, we started a trade above it, but we
have not broken away from it just yet. .
- Now, looking at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq
100, we were up just under 2% on the week. .
- Really no trend here for
the tech stocks just yet. .
- 312.50 is our next target to the upside. .
- And then looking at the Ishares for the .
- TSX 60, we're up just under a
third of a percent on the week. .
- Our magical number is 31.
25. .
- We closed at 31.
28. .
- So just $0.03 above our price target. .
- Again, we hit this target previously and
this is the time and place you should be .
- locking in some profits on
the Ishares for the TSX 60. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation
with a little bit of fun. .
- This week we are going to see a very
interesting astrological event. .
- It doesn't happen very often if you
live in the Northern hemisphere. .
- We are going to see a new
full moon on Wednesday. .
- That full moon is actually going to
line up directly in front of Mars. .
- And so if you've got a
telescope, you can take a look. .
- It'll be very interesting to watch. .
- And as many of you know, if you subscribe .
- to our service, I watch the moon cycles
and we plot them on this particular chart. .
- This is a chart of the TSX. .
- And as you can see, we are coming
up to a new full moon this week. .
- And if there's a void of information, if .
- the market does not have a lot of external
stimulus, you'll see the market change .
- direction at either a
full moon or a new moon. .
- It doesn't happen all the time, but it .
- happens enough that I watch
it every single time. .
- And anytime I'm taking a new swing trade,
I'm actually looking at the moon cycles to .
- see approximately how long I've
got in that potential trade. .
- And if there's no external stimulation, .
- the market might start to turn
direction on the moon cycle. .
- Now, a moon cycle is not
a reason to take action. .
- It's just getting you mentally prepared .
- that the market might
change direction this week. .
- And we need to be mentally
prepared for that type of event. .
- Now moon cycles don't always line up .
- directly because a moon cycle can happen
on a weekend in which the market is not .
- open, and so often they
don't directly line up. .
- But sometimes the market will change
direction on the Friday or the Monday, but .
- not directly on the date of the
actual new moon or full moon. .
- Now of course, the other stimulus that .
- we're looking at, potential stimulus, is
the FED meeting, which is December 14. .
- And that could be the other catalyst for
the market to top at this particular time. .
- Of course, everybody's trading into the
fact that this is a seasonally strong .
- period, so we want to be prepared for
change in direction, but we don't have to .
- take action beyond taking
profits off at profit targets. .
- And as you've seen this week, we hit
a few profit targets once again. .
- And if you hadn't already done so, this is
the time and place where you should lock .
- in some profits, but certainly not
completely liquidate a position. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning. .