- Good morning everyone.
Welcome to Wednesday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here
from theuptrend.com well. .
- Yesterday morning at this time the market
was having a wild ride in the premarket. .
- Things settled down later in the day. .
- This morning things are fairly quiet, but .
- we are expecting things to change after
02:00 p.m. As today is a Fed day. .
- And of course with Volatility expanding, .
- you don't know which way
the market is going to go. .
- Yesterday we had a huge
thrust to the upside. .
- We gave up a lot of those gains going
into the close for a lot of symbols. .
- We had Bearish Reversal day yesterday, but .
- for the most part the market
still closed positive on the day. .
- So those Bearish Reversal days
are not that damaging so far. .
- Now if we're looking at the QQQ's which .
- had a bear traversal day yesterday, you
can see that we actually ran up and hit .
- our next price target
before the market reversed. .
- So congratulations.
If you had an order in up at that level .
- that got filled yesterday
before the market pulled back. .
- Now a couple of stocks I watched closely, .
- Apple I'm currently short,
that did not change yesterday. .
- Even though we traded through the upper .
- channel line, we still
closed in the channel. .
- And then Tesla, Tesla is in the news once .
- again making new lows yesterday
and we did not trade below 156. .
- 25. .
- That support level is
still acting as support. .
- If it breaks then 125 is our
next target to the downside. .
- Now the big winner yesterday
was Moderna up nearly 20%. .
- Unfortunately our system generated a sell .
- signal on the day before with
Moderna closing down nearly 7%. .
- Now if you came in yesterday morning you .
- saw the futures were up, you saw
Moderna was going to open up at 187. .
- 33.
You would not have taken that trade. .
- So congratulations. .
- We are looking to the downside from
Moderna to find support at 162 50. .
- That actually happened on Monday and then .
- on Tuesday our next target to the
upside was 200 and we hit that. .
- So congratulations to anyone
still holding Moderna. .
- Then looking at the VIX
had a wild day yesterday. .
- You can see we made a new high for this
move before coming back and closing in the .
- channel and trading right down
to the lower channel line. .
- So on Wednesday we're looking
for a close below 21. .
- 51 to give us a sell signal that of course
is supportive for higher stock prices. .
- If that happens then we saw the US dollar .
- index make a new low yesterday that is
supportive for higher stock prices. .
- Bonds made a new high yesterday. .
- Then we saw the price of gold continue to .
- move higher, making a
new high for this move. .
- We saw crude oil move up into the channel. .
- We saw natural gas back on a buy
signal as of Tuesday's close. .
- Then looking at the major stock market .
- index, ETFs, the Dow Diamond
is back on a buy signal. .
- The SPY for the S&P 500
is back on a buy signal. .
- The triple Q's is back on a buy signal. .
- But unfortunately the Ishares for the TSX .
- 60 did not generate a
buy signal yesterday. .
- We did trade above the upper channel line .
- before coming down and closing
below the lower channel line. .
- Now what worked on the TSX? .
- Well, gold stocks led the market higher .
- with Barrick being the
big winner on the TSX 60. .
- Unfortunately, going in the opposite
direction were bank stocks being led lower .
- by the TD bank, which held up fairly
well over the last couple of weeks. .
- Then looking at what worked in the US. .
- Well, just like in Canada, it was the gold .
- stocks what didn't work and not
much of a major breakdown here. .
- Consumer Staples stocks got hit and it was .
- Kroger was the stock in that sector that
led consumer staples lower on Tuesday. .
- Okay folks, that's all for
this morning's presentation. .
- Well, today is going to be very stressful. .
- It's going to be a very
hard day to live through. .
- We're expecting volatility to expand this
afternoon, certainly after the .
- announcement comes out at two and then
later when the press conference starts. .
- The first thrust is typically not the
ultimate direction the market goes. .
- Yesterday we saw the Dow trade up over
1000 points in the pre market and then .
- during the day it turned
negative a couple of times. .
- So it's really no guarantee that that
first expansion of volatility is not the .
- direction the market will end
up in at the end of the day. .
- If you're nervous today, you might want to
take some money off the table and reduce .
- your positions and just
wait to see what happens. .
- A lot of people are betting that the .
- seasonal tendency to the upside is
supposed to start right now and they want .
- to jump on board and watch
the market move higher. .
- Of course, they probably have never
thought about the implications of tax loss .
- selling, what that does to the market
between now and the end of the year. .
- So there's a lot of
nervous people out there. .
- A lot of people think they know which way
the market is going to go today and are .
- putting short term bets on
today as they did yesterday. .
- And a lot of them got caught on the
wrong side of the market yesterday. .
- So a lot of short term activity going on .
- may not change the overall direction
of the market at the end of the day. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- Okay, thank you very much
for your time and attention. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Thursday morning. .
- Thank you. .