- Good morning, everyone .
- Welcome to Thursday morning .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here from the optioncom .
- in the pre-market .
- This morning, stock index, Futures are below, fair value, Dow, futures, currently down 240 points .
- The NASDAQ is leading the market lower this morning, come out of his mixed, but fairly quiet on Thursday morning .
- But we made it through another fed day .
- And we are expecting volatility to expand after 2 pm .
- it did .
- But not to the extent that it did on Tuesday .
- So Tuesday, May turn out to be what some people might consider to be a blow-off top .
- If we look at the other essential stocks currently trading above their 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 we're still up at the top of the range and that we certainly came up to the levels .
- we saw when we talked in August in .
- So that's one of the reasons that I'm kind of bearish on the market right now .
- Even though we're coming into Christmas looking at the s p y Panic zone chart you can see we're up at the top of the panic zones .
- Rejecting lower prices here .
- Down towards the 370 level, we did punch through the 40625 level three times over the past couple of months, and then stopped .
- So, we've had three tries at breaking out to higher highs higher than the September high and we have not been able to do that .
- So that's a little bit of a bearish sign there .
- If you look at the last two bars, you'll notice that we closed near the low of the day and that tells us that the pros were selling into the clothes .
- I looking for a close on, the right side chart on Thursday, below 39534 to give us a cell signal .
- And then if you want to give the market a little more room, of course, you can go to the midterm chart, and we're looking for clothes on Thursday below 390 to tell us a conservative investors .
- are starting to leave the market .
- Now, look at the fly paper Channel chart .
- Of course, we've got the average to range across the bottom here .
- I want you to notice an anomaly when we are topping, and if you go back to the left hand side, that's when we talk back .
- I April in May and there's where we talked in August and here's where we are right now .
- The average true range contracts around the top of a move and that could be what's happening right now .
- Now your te date of the spider ETF is down over 14% year-to-year basis were down over 12% .
- That might be a catalyst for people to do some year-end tax-loss selling and that we should see that happen over the next week or so .
- And then look at the data itself, the average to range for the Dow right now is 506 points and change at .
- So, you know, when we see the markets down to 40 in the pre-market, that's not that big a deal .
- Certainly, the volatility that we saw on Tuesday is a big deal and may turn out to be the top for this particular move .
- Now, looking at the Canadian market and again starting off looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50-day moving average .
- CSX composite made a multi-year high over the past couple of weeks, and has started to pull back, the TSX attracted a fairly well for a while, but now, it has started to break down, so of .
- the four, major indexes that we follow each day .
- That the TSX was the first one to generate a cell signal .
- Now again, if you look at the average, true range will see if contracted when the market is speaking .
- And it has currently contracted quite a bit and there you'll also see that at the bottom .
- There's a lot more volatility at the bottom of a move then there is at the top of a move .
- So I looking for the check TSX to continue lower from here, out of the moving averages between a day moving average is still acting as support, but that will probably change on Thursday, conservative investors have .
- already started to sell the TSX and we've got a sell signal on the midterm chart of the pros have given up control the high chairs for the TSX .
- 60 are on a daily right side cell signal .
- The new low yesterday looking for that to continue on Thursday .
- If the market where to turn around, sharply, we need to close on Thursday about $3093 .
- Now, the Vic's acted a little strangely on Wednesday .
- It actually ended the day on a cell signal .
- There's a big option, expiration date on Friday and I think the Vic's might be a bit screwy for the next couple of days and then might we might have to wait till next week before it .
- Comes back and sinks up with the overall stock market .
- Now my internal confidence has been low this week, I've been waiting for a Buy Signal, an apple and still short Apple .
- The trade hasn't done anything over the past couple of weeks were in a range but is still on a cell signal .
- I'm still watching Tesla closely to see how low it can go .
- I might turn around to be an incredible by at some point but that isn't on Thursday morning and there's headlines out .
- The deal on is still Selling a lot of Tesla shares and I'm still short Amazon that did not change on Tuesday .
- Got pretty close to changing on Tuesday, but it didn't, I'm still short Goldman Sachs another stock that did not generate a bicycle on Tuesday .
- So you can see, my internal confidence is rather low .
- I given the market activity this week in the fact that the stocks that I follow didn't didn't generate new by signals and I've got something to do this morning and the CME actually generated a cell .
- signal yesterday .
- So I'm going to get rid of the rest of my long position and go short to see me at the open on Thursday, last up .
- Look at those megatrends that did not change on Wednesday .
- So we got the us .
- dollar Index .
- Making a new low on Wednesday, we had an inside day for bonds closing slightly lower .
- Had it inside day for gold closing slightly lower on the day .
- I could all continue to move higher .
- It's moving up again .
- In the pre-market this morning not by a lot but it's still moving up and natural gas had to pull back .
- I know Wednesday looking for clothes on Thursday below 5:40 to give us a new daily sell signal .
- Okay folks that is all for this morning's presentation looking for some selling at the open have a great day .
- Next time you hear my voice is on Friday morning .