- Hello everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com with this .
- weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing Television. .
- Well the 50th week of
2022 has come and gone. .
- It was another very noisy week. .
- We had some inflation numbers come out
and the market overreacted to the upside. .
- We had the Fed announcement and the Fed .
- press conference and the market
really underreacted to that. .
- And then on Friday we saw the real
reaction to that Fed day with the market .
- selling off going into the close on
Friday, the theme here is still the same. .
- The market is topping right now and we
expect it to continue lower from here. .
- It may not do so this week, but we
are expecting lower prices into 2023. .
- Now let's start off looking at the VIX. .
- The VIX is broken right now. .
- It actually closed slightly lower on the .
- week after trading up into the
channel on the daily charts. .
- After the Fed announcement we came down .
- and actually generated a sell signal which
is supportive for higher stock prices. .
- But I think with the .
- big options expiration day on Friday that
the VIX is a little out of sync and may .
- take a couple of more days before it
gets back in sync with the stock market. .
- Now we've been talking about the fact that
the market has topped when the VIX has .
- come down towards 18.75 in 2022 and that
appears to be what happened recently. .
- A couple of weeks ago we got down
towards 18.75 and then quickly reversed. .
- And so we are expecting to
continue higher from here. .
- The bear market is probably not going to
end until we see the VIX back up over 40, .
- which would probably indicate some extreme
panic selling and that would probably be a .
- good time to look at putting long
term money back in the stock market. .
- Now looking at the weekly charts here
we're starting off with the DOWdiamonds. .
- You can see that we put in a new early .
- warning signal there at
the top of the screen. .
- We actually had a bearish reversal week. .
- We actually made a new high this week and .
- then pulled back closing
lower on the week. .
- In fact we closed below the previous
week's low, which is bearish. .
- And you can see down at the bottom of the
screen there that the pros are giving up .
- control of the DOWand that's kind of
important since the DOWhas really been .
- leading the market higher over
the past couple of months. .
- Now we ran up to the 343. .
- 75 level and reversed. .
- And where do we come down to this week? .
- Well our next mathematical
target to the downside was 328. .
- 13 and we closed at 328.
97. .
- So pretty close. .
- So we are looking to see if we
break that this week and then 312. .
- 50 would be our next
target to the downside. .
- Looking at the S&P 500 ETF the SPY, .
- our target was 406.25. We certainly had
time to lock in some profits up there. .
- And now we're coming down towards
375, this nice downtrend line. .
- A lot of market technicians are watching
this line closely, and once again, we .
- failed at trying to break
out above that trend line. .
- Now looking at the weekly right side chart
for the SPY, we did come right down to the .
- lower channel line, did
not close below it. .
- We're a couple of dollars away from
closing below 380 35 this coming Friday. .
- Now looking at the Nasdaq. .
- The Nasdaq really hasn't
participated in the recent rally. .
- It did pull back again. .
- It closed below the previous
week's low, which is bearish. .
- The pros have not taken control
over the past couple of months. .
- Unlike the DOWand the S&P 500, this
week was a bearish reversal week. .
- So we are expecting to go down and retest
the recent lows or even break them. .
- We are looking for a close this
coming Friday below 274.10. .
- We closed at 274.
25. .
- So we're right on the edge
of a new weekly sell signal. .
- And then looking at the
Ishares for the TSX 60. .
- Nice new early warning up there. .
- We traded up to the 31. .
- 25 level and reversed and came back down. .
- Our first target is 29. .
- 69 and we closed at 29. .
- 64. .
- And we also closed just below
the lower channel line. .
- So the TSX, if you're using the Ishares
for the TSX 60 to track the Canadian .
- market, we are back on a weekly
sell signal as of Friday's close. .
- Now, I've been hammering home the risk
off trade for the past month or so. .
- And the reason for that is there's
a huge divergence in the market. .
- Yes, the DOWhas had a really nice
rally over the last couple of months. .
- That's wonderful. .
- And we should encourage that always. .
- But at the same time, the rest of
the market was not following along. .
- So that's a big red flag telling us that
this rally is probably not sustainable. .
- Remember, the DOWis only 30 stocks
and they're very unique stocks. .
- Most of them are global, most of
them are not paying any taxes. .
- So they don't have as much geographical
risk as a lot of other stocks do. .
- Yeah, seeing the DOWmove up like
that, that's a wonderful thing. .
- It's just the fact that the rest
of the market wasn't following. .
- So the DOWis doing very well this year. .
- It's only down 6.82%. You'll see that? .
- That's not a lot when we look at some
of the other areas of the market. .
- Now, of course, you can divide
the market up by market cap. .
- And so when you look at the small stocks,
the micro cap stocks, you can see that .
- really no participation
in the recent rally. .
- Yes, we were able to generate a buy .
- signal, and now this week
we've generated a sell signal. .
- So that's over with. .
- So the fact that some money came
back in was not that big a deal. .
- We were looking for sectors of the
market to start taking out recent highs. .
- You've got to start changing the
pattern of lower lows and lower highs. .
- You've got to change the pattern, you've
got to start putting in higher highs. .
- Now the DOW was able to do that, but
again, not the rest of the market. .
- So more and more money was going
into fewer and fewer stocks. .
- And that's the recipe for disaster. .
- Now US Microcap stocks, according to the .
- Ishares Microcap ETF are
down 22.45% for the year. .
- Back on a weekly sell signal
looking north of the border. .
- No participation whatsoever in the recent .
- rally, even though the TSX was
able to move in step with the Dow. .
- No interest in microcap stocks whatsoever. .
- And we're down 38.73% on the
Venture Exchange for 2022. .
- Now, last week we talked about IPO stocks. .
- Again, no participation in the recent
rally, down over 55% on the year. .
- Then of course, another ETF you can use to .
- track what's been going on is the
Titanic, I mean the ARK Innovation ETF. .
- It's down 64.86% on the year. .
- And as you can see, there's been no new .
- money coming to this ETF over
the past couple of weeks. .
- Now, every day I've been
showing Apple and Tesla. .
- The reason for that is these stocks have
not participated in the recent rally. .
- That was a big warning sign. .
- Apple is down 26.1% on the year. .
- Tesla is down 62.44% on the year. .
- It held above 150 on Friday, but after
hours it started to break down below 150. .
- So I wouldn't be surprised if
it got down to $100 in 2023. .
- Of course, I'm not going to take any .
- financial positions based on that theory,
but now that we're down below, starting to .
- head down below 150. 100 seems to be the
next logical target to the downside. .
- We've got some mathematical targets in .
- between, but I wouldn't be surprised if
in 2023 we saw Tesla down towards $100. .
- Now, what is Tesla? .
- Tesla is a series of lower
highs and lower lows. .
- And until that pattern changes, then the .
- conversation is always going
to be about lower prices. .
- Let's take a look at those megatrends. .
- And no changes this week we saw
bonds continue to move higher. .
- I tracked the third year bond, but of .
- course there's the TLT and the XBB both
closing slightly higher on the week. .
- So money is not coming out of the bond
market to save the stock market right now. .
- Then we've got the US dollar. .
- It made a new low this week and I would .
- imagine the volatility was around
the inflation numbers in the Fed meeting, .
- but it came back and closed just
slightly lower on the week. .
- So this could be the time and place that
the US Dollar wants to move back up again. .
- Then, looking at the metals,
we've got copper pulling back. .
- Now, copper had a bearish reversal week a .
- few weeks ago and we have not
traded through that high. .
- So that bearish reversal
week is still in play. .
- Notice that the pros are starting
to give up control here. .
- They haven't abandoned Copper yet, but
they're starting to give up control. .
- Now.
They have given up control on Gold, and .
- Gold was down $6.40 on the
week, so no major selling yet. .
- But the pros have given up control and .
- they look like they want to
give up control on silver. .
- It'll take a while for them to get down to .
- that level, but Silver has been leading
Gold over the past couple of weeks. .
- So this rally may have
come to a stop this week. .
- And then looking at energy, Crude
Oil, nothing going on there. .
- Pros still no interest in taking control
and certainly no interest in taking .
- control of Natural Gas
at the present time. .
- Let's finish off. .
- Could there be a Christmas rally? .
- Yes, there could be. .
- I've been talking about the percentage of .
- stocks currently trading above
their 50 day moving average. .
- What we want to do is see it come down, .
- back down to the lower area,
the lower range down here. .
- We're starting to make our way down there. .
- But if we also take a shorter term view, .
- if you take a look at the percentage of
stocks on the TSX currently trading above .
- their five day moving average, we've come
right down to the bottom of the range. .
- So, yeah, there could
be a rally this week. .
- Of course, the first sign that something .
- new is happening is if we close above the
previous week's high, and I doubt very .
- much we're going to be able
to do anything like that. .
- So, yeah, there could be some buying going .
- into Christmas on a very short term basis,
but it's probably not going to generate a .
- lot of new buy signals on either
the daily or weekly charts. .
- Now the same is true for the S&P 500. .
- We've been looking at a market in which
was very overbought where the percentage .
- of stocks currently trading above their 50
day moving average was up at the top of .
- the range and we were
expecting it to come down. .
- You can see this week
that it has come down. .
- This is a daily chart, but at the same
time, while that's been coming down, the .
- percentage of stocks on the S&P 500
currently trading above their five day .
- moving average has come right
down to the bottom here. .
- So there's no guarantee we can
cluster down here for a week or so. .
- There's no guarantee that you're going to .
- get an immediate return, but we are
very oversold on a short term basis. .
- We are not oversold on
a longer term basis. .
- So yeah, we could certainly get a bounce .
- this week and get some sort of
Christmas rally into year end. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- I am betting that we are going to
continue to move lower into 2023. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- If you run out of gift ideas, you can .
- always donate blood and
give the gift of life. .
- If you've got some time over the Christmas
holidays, I'm sure there's some blood .
- donors clinics somewhere near
you and holiday schedule. .
- We're going to do a regular
schedule this week. .
- I'm not sure when. .
- I'm going to post a video next weekend and
then the week between Christmas and New .
- Year's, I think we'll publish just on the
Wednesday and then we'll do a weekend .
- update on the following on
the New Year's weekend. .
- But I'm not sure that we're going to be .
- around much over the week between
Christmas and New Year's. .
- Okay, folks, thank you very much
for your time and attention. .
- Of course, if you have any
questions, please send me an email. .
- And next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning. .
- Thank you. .