- Hello everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here from the .
- uptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well, to summarize things, things are
still looking fairly bullish, but the .
- market has run into a wall of resistance
and we do have a couple of things that .
- have started to break that
we need to keep an eye on. .
- So let's take a look at those. .
- Let's start off this weekend's .
- presentation with the two
most important numbers. .
- Starting off, looking at the VIX. .
- If you're a lonlong-termlong-termg
term investor, write this number down. .
- As long as the VIX does
not close above 23. .
- 42 this coming Friday, we will remain
long term bullish on the market. .
- Now, if you're trading the market and .
- watching it daily on Monday, we want to
make sure the VIX does not close above .
- 20.10. Close above 20.10 would be the
first sign that something new is happening .
- and in this case, that something new
would be negative for the market. .
- Now the next line in the
sand is going to be 21. .
- 88. .
- We ran up to that level a couple of weeks
ago and reversed, and I would be more .
- concerned on a short term basis if we
start breaking out above 21.short-term88. .
- Now, next up, I want to talk about
resistance and the S&P 500 was able to .
- break through resistance
but not break away from it. .
- So it still stuck to the 4062.50 level,
but it certainly made a higher high. .
- So from a bullish point of view, you've .
- made a higher low and a higher
high that is very bullish. .
- When we move on to the TSX and the TSX 60,
you can see we've run into resistance when .
- we were at this level a
couple of months ago. .
- So we're up at the 1250 level. .
- We closed just a dollar
and change above it. .
- So we have not broken away just yet. .
- But the TSX is looking fairly bullish. .
- We're nowhere near the upper channel line .
- and things are turning up
for both the channel lines. .
- And you can see we're still projecting
higher levels on the panic zone chart. .
- So of course, we're going to be looking
for a new early warning signal up there. .
- And if we get that, then we're going to be .
- looking to see if this nice
uptrend line holds if it breaks. .
- If we start trading below the uptrend
line, then we would expect a run down to .
- the recent low from a
couple of months ago. .
- Now looking at the Dow, the
Dow has been dealing with 34. .
- 375 for months now and has still not
been able to break out above it. .
- The Nasdaq 100 moved up to the
1250 level and stopped on a dime. .
- And the Russell 2000 actually moved up to .
- 2000 and stopped on a dime,
closing just below it. .
- So you can see that a lot of the market
has run into major areas of resistance. .
- Whether you're looking at the TSX 60, the
Dow, the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000. .
- Now, running into resistance
doesn't mean a lot. .
- It tells us that we're probably going to
stop there, which has happened and now we .
- need to see how the market
reacts to that resistance. .
- You can see that back .
- a few months ago, back in the late summer,
that this is the time and place where the .
- market turned around and so we'll have to
see if it does it again this week, .
- otherwise we've got our
next targets to the upside. .
- And you can see just as an example on the .
- Russell 2000 that 2125 is our
next target to the upside. .
- Is that a legitimate target? .
- Well, guess what, we hit it back in
March of this year and reversed. .
- So yeah, that's a legitimate target to the .
- upside if we can continue
to move higher from here. .
- So as far as most market participants are .
- concerned, things are still looking
very bullish in early 2023. .
- Now here's something that you need to keep
an eye on and from a bullish point of .
- view, the US dollar index actually made a
new low this week and so the market has .
- been moving in sync
with a lower US dollar. .
- But on Friday we had a big move up and the
US dollar index actually closed on a new .
- buy signal and the pros are
just about to take control. .
- Now we had a buy signal back at the
start of January which quickly reversed. .
- It only lasted a couple of
days and then it was over. .
- That could happen again, we'll
just have to wait and see. .
- But you can see that while the US dollar .
- index was going up, some of the foreign
currencies such as the British pound and .
- the euro got hit hard and they
are back on sell signals. .
- Now even with the Fed meeting this
week, the bond market barely moved. .
- The 30 year bond was
down ever so slightly. .
- Still on a weekly buy
signal here, no change. .
- Now what didn't work this week? .
- While the biggest loser was probably the
price of gold, down 3.41% on the week we .
- were trying to get to $2,000,
that was our next price target. .
- But we had a huge move down and when I say .
- huge, the first thing you look for is
a close below the previous week's low. .
- Well, in this particular case, not only
did we close below the previous week's .
- low, you can go back three weeks and
you can see we closed below that low. .
- So that's quite a massive
move for the price of gold. .
- We're still on a buy signal here that .
- would change this coming Friday
with a close below 1837. .
- Ten of course, on the daily charts we are .
- back on a lot of sell signals
for the gold miners in the US. .
- You can see we traded back into the .
- Channel, that's also true north
of the border with the XGD. .
- Also trading back in the channel. .
- Now, energy stocks didn't fare
any better than gold stocks. .
- The price of crude oil was
down 6.46%, and the US. .
- Gold stocks were down 5.78%. In
Canada, they were down 5.72%. .
- So in both cases, notice that looks like
we put in a lower high there in the US. .
- And a lower high here in Canada. .
- So there's a high lower
high, another lower high. .
- So that's a very bearish chart pattern. .
- Now, what worked well in the US. .
- It was retail stocks, followed by
transports, both having nice big weeks. .
- And in Canada, it was Infotech,
followed by financial services. .
- Those were the big winners
north of the border. .
- Now, we're almost done. .
- I just want to take a look at one
last set of charts for Tesla. .
- Back at the start of January,
we were looking at Tesla. .
- Tesla making a new low. .
- And we're looking at a daily chart here. .
- And we were contemplating if Tesla broke .
- 100, which of course,
is a big round number. .
- On this particular day, we made
the low, and it was 104.64. .
- So what was going to happen next? .
- Will we make a lower low? .
- Would we break down below 100? .
- If we were going to break
down below 100, then 93. .
- 75 and 62. .
- 50 were the next targets to the downside. .
- Now, if the market was going
to turn around, then 156. .
- 25 and 187. .
- 50 would be our next
targets to the upside. .
- We'll move ahead a month.
And what happened? .
- Well, we got a buy signal in Tesla,
and we ran up, and we got to 156. .
- 25.
So congratulations. .
- You got to lock in some profits there.
Then. .
- If you had orders in at 187. .
- 50, well, congratulations. .
- You got to lock in some profits there. .
- If you still have shares left in Tesla, I .
- put an order in at 199, and I'd
also put an order in at 218 75. .
- And of course, you're just going to leave
those orders in place, and you're either .
- going to get filled up there or
we're going to get kicked out. .
- And on Monday, we would
need a close below 150. .
- 716 to kick us out. .
- And if that didn't happen on Monday, of .
- course, that lower channel line is
going to continue to move higher daily. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Things are still looking fairly bullish, .
- but the market has run
into a wall of resistance. .
- What we do next is yet to be determined. .
- We'll have to come back this time next .
- weekend to see how the market handles
running into a wall of resistance. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- The next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning. .