- Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Super .
- Bowl Sunday edition of Stock
Market Timing Television. .
- Not a lot new to ponder this week. .
- The market US markets had an inside week, .
- whether we're looking at the
S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100. .
- So not a lot of damage was done. .
- We'll talk about resistance
later in the presentation. .
- The Canadian market was down on the
week, but no major change range there. .
- We actually closed within
the previous week's range. .
- A couple of things that could
affect the market this week. .
- We've got CPI numbers on Tuesday and then
February options expire on Friday, and .
- either of those could add to
market volatility this week. .
- Now, speaking of volatility. .
- The VIX moved up on the week. It
was up 12% on the weekly chart. .
- We need to close this coming Friday
above 23.03 to give us a new buy signal. .
- Of course, that would tell us that options
traders are getting a little wary of the .
- market and we're starting
to act defensively. .
- On the daily chart, you can see the VIX
generated a buy signal on Thursday. .
- On Friday, we actually moved up to .
- resistance and then pulled back and
actually closed slightly lower on the day. .
- So we're looking for a breakout above 21.
88. .
- On the downside on Monday, we're looking .
- for a close below 18.70 to get us back on
track and tell us that options traders are .
- not that scared of what's
going to happen next. .
- Now, we were watching the US dollar index,
which was up last week, it was up again .
- this week, and we're still
on a sell signal here. .
- But a higher US dollar may not
be helpful for the stock market. .
- Bonds continued to move lower this
week and bond yields were up. .
- The yield on the 30 year bond was up
just under five and a half percent. .
- If that trend continues, that could also
hurt the stock market, a sign that some .
- risk money came out of
the market this week. .
- We saw bitcoin pull back just over seven .
- and a half percent, and we're seeing a
daily sell signal .
- for bitcoin on Thursday and some fall
through to the downside on Friday. .
- Looking at the daily charts, the Ishares
for the TSX 60 still on a buy signal. .
- Similar situation for the Dow diamonds, .
- the SPY ETF, and the
queues for the Nasdaq 100. .
- So we saw some weakness this week, but we .
- did not end the week
on daily sell signals. .
- Now, last week we talked about resistance,
and all the resistance is still holding. .
- Whether you're looking at the Dow, the .
- Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, the SOX
Index, or the TSX 60, we did not punch .
- through or close above any of
those resistance levels this week. .
- Now, not everything is stuck
at resistance at the moment. .
- If we look at the TSX itself, it's
halfway between two price targets. .
- And what we're going to be watching for is .
- if we do get a pullback here, we could
pull back to 20,000, use that as support .
- and that would not break
the nice uptrend line. .
- If we start breaking the uptrend line then .
- the more it breaks, the more we're going
to get long term bearish on the market. .
- Now the S&P 500 is still
stuck to the 4062. .
- 50 level and if we take out last week's .
- high this week, that could be the sign
that we're going to head up and retest. .
- First of all, we'd have to retest the
summer lows before we get to 4375. .
- And again we'll be watching for any .
- pullback because this is
a bullish chart here. .
- We've got a higher low and a
higher high that's bullish. .
- And if we get a pullback, do we hold the .
- nice uptrend line or do
we start to break it? .
- Let's take a look at
weekly commodity prices. .
- We saw copper pull back again back in the .
- channel, so still on a weekly sell
signal, that has not changed. .
- Gold still on a weekly sell signal. .
- Now oddly enough, gold was
just down a $1.30 on the week. .
- So we had a bearish
reversal week last week. .
- We continued to trade lower that's .
- bearish, but we are stuck
at 1875, closing at 1876. .
- 40. .
- And you can see below if we continue
to move lower this week, 1812. .
- 50 and 1750 are the next two
targets to the downside. .
- Now silver continued to move lower this .
- week, so that's not a good sign for gold
and it's certainly not a good sign for the .
- mining stocks if we've got copper,
gold and silver all trading lower. .
- Looking at energy, starting with crude
oil, crude oil was up nearly 7% on the .
- week, but for crude oil that's not that
dramatic and we're still on a sell signal. .
- Things would change this
week with a close above 79. .
- 48. .
- Natural gas has not shown any sign of
upward momentum but it is holding support .
- at 2.34. And so this is the time and place
we look for a turnaround in natural gas. .
- So far we haven't seen
any real indication. .
- The first sign of course, would be a close .
- above that previous week's high
and that has yet to happen. .
- So thinking positive thoughts
for natural gas at the moment. .
- Okay folks, let's finish off this .
- weekend's presentation with
a couple of stocks to watch. .
- We've seen a pullback in some of the major
winners for the past month or so and we've .
- seen a pullback in Apple,
Microsoft and Tesla. .
- So now we're looking to see if we see fall
through to the downside this week and that .
- would certainly be negative for the
markets if that were to happen. .
- I was also going to include shopify in
this list but it actually rolled over on .
- Friday, so got a new
sell signal for shopify. .
- Of course before you take any buy signal .
- or sell signal, you want to check to
see what's happening in the pre market. .
- If it's not trading in the pre market, .
- then go into your brokerage account
and see what the bid and ask is. .
- Just make sure there's not a major .
- discrepancy between Friday's
close and Mondays open. .
- A lot of times stocks can get buy signals .
- and sell signals on misinformation or
misunderstanding or rumors or outright .
- lies, and that can be corrected
overnight or over the weekend. .
- You just want to make sure that things are .
- what's happening on Monday morning is
pretty similar to what happened on Friday. .
- Of course, if it's bidding higher on .
- Monday but not that much higher,
we're not up at the 68.17 level. .
- The fact that it's actually bidding higher .
- on Monday morning is good for
you because you want to sell it. .
- So you're going to get to
sell it at a higher price. .
- So don't stop taking a sell signal because
it's bidding up slightly in the pre .
- market, but certainly ignore a sell signal
if it's up dramatically in the pre market. .
- Okay folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Just a reminder that this educational .
- video has been translated
into the following languages. .
- If you need access to the translated
versions of video, please come to our .
- website and sign up to our
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- That way you'll get access to
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- Unfortunately, due to logistics, the .
- translated versions are not available
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- Have a great time tonight. .
- Don't eat too much, don't drink too
much, and I hope your team wins. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
will be on Tuesday morning. .