- Good Morning, everyone.
Welcome to Tuesday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend. .
- Com.
In the premarket this morning, things are .
- looking a little gloomy
for Tuesday morning. .
- Stock index futures are down across the .
- board, being led lower by the the Nasdaq,
DOW futures currently down 255 points. .
- Let's start off today's
presentation looking at the VIX. .
- The VIX traded up above the upper channel .
- line on Friday before pulling back and
actually closing lower on the day. .
- The VIX trading in the channel, of
course, is in the neutral zone. .
- We're looking for a close above .
- 20.55 on Monday, and I'm pretty
sure we're going to get that. .
- Whether we get a breakout above 21.88,
of course, is yet to be determined. .
- Now, if we look at the mid term chart, you .
- can see we're looking for a close above
22.20 on Tuesday. .
- Then above that, to break out above the .
- fly paper channel, we really need to start
trading above 23.50. Now, looking at this .
- chart, here's where the VIX started
to break down back in October. .
- And if I just hold my mouse up .
- there, we'll take a look at
what happened to the DOW. .
- And that's the same time that the .
- DOW started to break out
above the Fly Paper channel. .
- Now, it was the DOW that led the market .
- higher and it made a high in early
December right at this point here. .
- And then basically, we've been
treading water ever since. .
- Now, the rest of the
market didn't do that. .
- In fact, the rest of the market not only
played catch up to the DOW but had a big .
- sell off into the end of the year before
coming right back. .
- When we look at the DOW Diamonds, you can
see we dip through the lower channel line .
- on Friday, still looking for a close on
Tuesday up below .
- 337.26. Now, when we look at the other
major indices, you can see .
- they trailed the DOW up and then had a
nice more significant .
- sell off into the end of the year and
then a more significant rally into 2023. .
- That rally looks like it's
coming to an end of the day. .
- We've got the QQQ's looking for a close on .
- Tuesday below
$300.26. We do have the Semiconductors .
- back on a sell signal
as of Friday's close. .
- That's not a good sign for the QQQ's. .
- Then looking at the Canadian market, the i .
- shares for the TSX 60 are now back on
a sell signal as of Friday's close. .
- Big reason for that was the sell
off in crude oil on Friday. .
- Canadian Energy stocks ended the day back .
- on a sell signal down at the recent
lows from a couple of weeks ago. .
- We were down 3.55 % in Canada
and US energy stocks were down 3.56 %. .
- They started to dip a little below the .
- recent lows, so wouldn't be surprised
if we continue lower on Tuesday. .
- Weakness in Energy stocks joins other
commodities already on sell signals. .
- Gold stocks have been on a sell
signal for a couple of weeks now. .
- We've got
the GDX making a new low on Friday, and .
- we've got the X GD also
making a new low on Friday. .
- Now, I'm keeping a close eye on bank
stocks to see if they break down. .
- That, of course, would be a negative
overall indicator for the market. .
- We've got US bank stocks dipping below
the lower channel line on Friday. .
- Canadian bank stocks ended the day with an .
- inside day, so a day of
indecision for Canadian banks. .
- And of course, we can finish off here with .
- a couple of things that
could affect the market. .
- US Dollar Index made a new high for this .
- move on Friday before
closing, unchanged on the day. .
- And then looking at the bond .
- market, the XBB made a new low on Thursday
while the TLT, while emerging .
- markets and junk bonds all made new
lows on Friday before recovering. .
- Now, bond yields have continued to rise. .
- That, of course, can put
pressure on the stock market. .
- The 5 year is leading .
- the bond yields higher than we've
got the 10 year and the 30 year. .
- So it is the 5 year that is leading
the yields higher at the moment and short .
- term rates over long term
rates, banks don't necessarily like that. .
- Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation. .
- Looking for some selling at the open. .
- We've been anticipating
selling for the past few weeks, and .
- it looks like it's actually
going to take place on Tuesday. .
- Enjoy the rest of your day. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice .
- is on Wednesday morning. .