- Good Morning, everyone, and
welcome to Thursday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend. .
- Com. .
- In this presentation, we're going to take
a closer look at the Canadian market. .
- Of course, we can start off
looking at what's ahead of us this .
- morning, and we do have some economic
numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning, .
- which could add to the
premarket volatility. .
- Now, ahead of these numbers, the .
- stock index futures are
trading above fair value. .
- DOW, futures currently
up about 100 points. .
- The US markets are on a sell .
- signal, and so the Canadian US markets
are moving in sync at the moment. .
- We can start off today's presentation
taking a look at commodities. .
- The price of wheat spiked through the top
of the panic zones back in early 2022. .
- About a year ago when the war started in .
- Ukraine, wheat prices have
come all the way back. .
- We are currently on a sell signal and
we're currently in a bear market. .
- The price of wheat
is certainly not part of the inflation .
- equation at the moment, and neither is the
price of lumber, which had a nice big run .
- up in January and gave up all
of those gains in February. .
- Looking at the price of crude oil, we're
currently on a sell signal trying to hold .
- 71.88. Now, you'll notice a lot of energy
stocks look very similar to this where we .
- put in a high in January
and a lower high in February. .
- So that's a bullish chart
pattern on a short term basis. .
- Now, we're looking to
see if we can hold the recent lows. .
- 71.88 is our mathematical target, but
we certainly dipped below that level. .
- And there's a low back in December that
the market will be watching closely. .
- Now, natural gas. .
- Last time we talked about natural gas, we
talked about it holding 2.34. .
- And over the last couple of days,
it's come down to that level. .
- And yesterday it closed above it at .
- 2.44. The pros don't look like they want
to be sellers at this point, but it .
- doesn't look like they
want to be buyers either. .
- So to get natural gas off the floor, we .
- need the pros to come
back and take control. .
- And that has not started just yet. .
- Inside date for the price of copper
yesterday, third day of a buy signal. .
- Unfortunately, gold and silver are
going in the opposite directions. .
- For the price of gold, if things were to .
- turn around on Thursday, we're
looking for a close above 1878. .
- Otherwise, the market is trying to
hold the 200 day moving average. .
- In the premarket this morning, we are
trading slightly below that level. .
- So this might not be the day
that crude oil turns around. .
- We might have to go down to
1812.50 to find support. .
- And you can see the pros
are down at the bottom of the .
- chart, but they have not started
to turn around just yet. .
- Now, we recently had a bullish reversal .
- day both in the price of gold
and the price of silver. .
- For silver, we're looking for a
close above 22.38 on Thursday. .
- Not expecting that to happen, but there's .
- that bullish reversal day off of support
at .
- 21.25. So if we take that out, then a move
down to $20 would not be unreasonable. .
- Looking at the Canadian .
- stock market, starting with the
TSX, the TSX, so a big caps. .
- The TSX 60, midcaps,
small caps all on sell signals right now. .
- What's not really selling off at the
moment is the venture exchange, which has .
- held up very well
over the past couple of days. .
- You can see it looks like we put in a
lower high there .
- on Tuesday and Wednesday we came down,
but we're still on a buy signal. .
- Cannabis stocks are down at the December
lows and we might find some support here. .
- Then looking at consumer
discretionary, of course, if you're going .
- into a recession, consumer discretionary
should be losing and consumer staples .
- should be winning and that's
what's going on right now. .
- Then looking at energy stocks, again,
here's a lower high from last week. .
- That's bearish.
Now we're putting in a lower low. .
- Of course, this is a short term analysis. .
- Of course, taking up this low would .
- certainly be a lot more significant,
but that is a bearish chart pattern. .
- So not looking for a lot of love for the
energy sector over the next week or two. .
- Then we're looking at financials. .
- They're back on a sell signal. .
- Canadian banks are back on a sell signal. .
- Then looking at the gold sector, which is .
- sold off during the month of February, not
expecting a change there anytime soon. .
- We are starting to break down below
265.63. If we continue, then 250 .
- would certainly be our next
target to the downside. .
- There's the global mining index making a
new low for this move on Wednesday today. .
- Then we've got
industrials and industrials on a sell .
- signal, but there's really no
downward momentum at the moment. .
- And InfoTech, of course, we've been
following Shopify and Shopify is on a sell .
- signal right now and that's not
helpful for the infotec sector. .
- Then we've got real estate holding up .
- fairly well and telecom stocks
holding up fairly well at the moment. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation
taking a look at the TSX volume leaders. .
- When we look at the top 10 list, there's
only two that are possibly winners here. .
- Manulife is currently ranked at nine, and .
- then we've got
Sun Life currently ranked at five. .
- Otherwise, everything else
doesn't look very healthy. .
- There's Suncor. .
- Suncor made a higher high last week before .
- pulling back, so we're on our third
day of a sell signal for Suncor. .
- And then we've got Enbridge making a new .
- low, breaking down below
the December lows. .
- So that's not very bullish. .
- Then we've got Manulife
holding up fairly well up here. .
- We're looking for a close
on Thursday below 26. .
- 14 to give us a sell signal. .
- Yesterday was an inside day for Manulife. .
- Then we've got Crescent Point making a .
- lower low last week and
making a lower low of this week. .
- So that's a bearish chart pattern. .
- Then we've got Barrick making
a new low on Wednesday. .
- Then we've got Canadian Natural Resources
again, another stock putting in a lower .
- high last week and now
a lower low this week. .
- Then we're looking at Cenovus ,
similar situation for Cenovus . .
- Then we've got BCE holding up. .
- We're on a buy signal right now, sitting .
- right on the edge of a
new daily sell signal. .
- Then we've got Kinross
making a new low yesterday. .
- Then we've got Sun Life back
on a sell signal as of Wednesday's close. .
- As you can see, we hit
68.75. If you had an order in up there .
- that got filled, we are
back on a sell signal. .
- If you want to give the stock a little
more breathing room, you can always move .
- over to the mid term chart and give it
another day or two to see if it'll hold. .
- We're looking for a close
on Thursday below $66. .
- That would certainly give us a new sell
signal on the midterm chart for Sun Life. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this morning's presentation. .
- Not a lot of things to get excited about
on Thursday morning. .
- We'll see what volatility .
- and market direction the US
economic numbers give us after 8:30, but .
- I'm not looking for a lot of new buy
signals from Thursday's trading action. .
- Have a great day, folks. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Friday morning. .
- You. .