- Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here from the .
- uptrend.com in the Premarket this
morning, things are fairly mixed. .
- We've got Dow futures higher, while the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading lower. .
- Commodities are also mixed, with gold .
- slightly lower, while natural gas
and crude oil are slightly higher. .
- On Thursday morning, .
- let's start off looking at the VIX and the
VIX that traded in the channel yesterday. .
- We need to close below $20.36 to
give us a sell signal on Thursday. .
- The US dollar index pulled back
into the channel on Wednesday. .
- No change in trend there. .
- The 30 year bond made a new low yesterday. .
- We also saw selling in emerging market and .
- junk bonds, and we saw
upward pressure on yields. .
- 30 year yield moved up slightly, while the
five year yield moved up more .
- aggressively, making a
new high for this move. .
- So again, it's shorter term rates over .
- longer term rates, which is
negative for the stock market. .
- Now, gold moved up yesterday
looking for a close above 1852. .
- 90 on Thursday to give us a buy
signal for the price of gold. .
- Silver moved up, but just
to the lower channel line. .
- Looking at the S&P 500, it was down
yesterday, made a new low for this move. .
- The Nasdaq getting pretty
close to making a new low. .
- Both of them are down in the pre market .
- and both of them are down in the pre
market, probably because of Tesla. .
- Now, Tesla needs to close below 196. .
- 73 on Thursday to give us a sell signal. .
- We are trading below that level in the pre .
- market this morning, looking
for support at the 187. .
- 50 level.
So because of the size of Tesla and the .
- fact that it's not in the Dow, it's in the
Nasdaq 100 and the SP 500, it is putting .
- downward pressure on those
two indices, but not the Dow. .
- Now, another stock that's down in the .
- Premarket this morning
is Silver Lake Capital. .
- Looking across the bottom of the screen, .
- you know this is dead money and it's not
something that you should ever go near. .
- You can see that at the top left hand .
- corner of the screen, the
stock was trading at $110. .
- It's currently trading just
above $9 at the moment. .
- So no change in trend for that stock, but .
- it is down sharply in the
pre market this morning. .
- Now, another stock that people are
talking about this morning is snowflake. .
- And snowflake is down over $10. .
- And that should take us down to
make a new low for this move. .
- Certainly no change in
trend for snowflake. .
- Now, looking at the Dow, it
made a new low yesterday. .
- It is up in the Premarket this morning .
- because of one stock,
and that is salesforce. .
- Salesforce ended yesterday on a buy
signal, but this morning it is popping and .
- it is trading above our
projected trading range. .
- That's a huge move up for any stock. .
- Obviously, you're going to see some short
covering at the open, which is going to .
- take the stock up and
we'll have to see what happens next. .
- I would certainly not want to jump
in to salesforce at these numbers. .
- I would fade this trade as I
recommended you fade Nvidia last week. .
- And Nvidia has not been able to make a .
- move above that high from
when the stock gapped higher. .
- So Salesforce is going to pop. .
- It's, helping the Dow outpace the Nasdaq
and the SP 500 in the pre market this .
- morning, but it's not
something I would chase. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation .
- looking at the Canadian stock market and
we'll break this up into three parts. .
- The first part is the TSX itself
is still on a sell signal. .
- The Ishares for the TSX 60 were up $0.05 .
- yesterday in the premarket this morning,
the TSX 60 futures are trading lower. .
- The ishares Canada ETF in New
York is also trading lower. .
- So not expecting any fall through
to the upside on Thursday. .
- Now, Wednesday's market action
was all about commodity stocks. .
- And we saw base metals scream higher .
- yesterday, right back up to the
high from a couple of weeks ago. .
- We saw money go back into mining stocks, .
- into gold stocks, and
into the energy sector. .
- Now, there are a lot of buy signals in the .
- commodityrelated stocks from
Wednesday's trading action. .
- I would strongly encourage you to be very .
- conservative, very restrained in
your purchases at the present time. .
- Previously, we looked at the seasonality .
- chart for the VIX, and the VIX tends
to spike during the month of March. .
- The Canadian market goes
in the opposite direction. .
- Historically, you can see here,
this is where we are right now. .
- And from this point on, we see some
selling in the month of March. .
- That's what the seasonalities tell us. .
- Absolutely no guarantee that's
what's going to happen this year. .
- But the fact that you know that should
cause you to be a lot more restrained .
- until we see a major bottom
in the Canadian stock market. .
- Now, typically what happens is we get a .
- nice up move in February, which
coincides with RRSP season, and then .
- seasonally after that happens,
they don't have any money left to buy .
- stocks in the month of March,
and we get a pullback. .
- It doesn't happen exactly
that way every year. .
- It hasn't happened exactly that way this
year, but that's the seasonal tendency. .
- So don't be overly aggressive with these .
- new buy signals because they
may not last very long. .
- We're still looking for
crude oil to participate. .
- It's still treading water
here in the channel. .
- Natural gas, on the other hand, has .
- started a new uptrend and let's hope it
can continue to move higher from here. .
- Now, the banking sector is really
holding the Canadian market back. .
- The Royal Bank rolled over yesterday, so .
- on Tuesday, ahead of earnings,
we had a buy signal. .
- Then you come in on Wednesday morning and
see what the market is doing, what's .
- happening in the premarket, and
you don't take that buy signal. .
- You either sit on your short position or .
- just sit in cash and wait
for the next opportunity. .
- Now what happened yesterday in the Royal .
- Bank isn't happening
today for the TD Bank. .
- Looking at how it's trading in New York, .
- last time I checked it was up $0.70,
which is a dollar in Canadian currency. .
- And so we're heading up into the channel
at the open on Thursday morning. .
- Who knows how the day is going to end? .
- It could end like the bank of
Nova Scotia did the other day. .
- And the Bank of Nova Scotia made a new low .
- yesterday before recovering
going into the close. .
- The first sign something new is going on
that's going on here is if we start .
- closing above the top of
the big down day or back into the open .
- gap, that would be the first
sign something new is happening. .
- We certainly don't have that type of
information on Thursday morning, so no .
- reason to get excited about the
bank of Nova Scotia just yet. .
- Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation. .
- Have a great day. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Friday morning. .