- Hello, everyone, and welcome to this .
- weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing Television. .
- My name, of course, is Stephen
Whiteside from theuptrend.com. .
- I'll try to keep this
as brief as possible. .
- There's a lot that you could say, but
it's really not going to change anything. .
- We really need to give the market time
to figure out what it wants to do next. .
- Now, we are coming into month end and .
- month end usually has
a bullish bias to it. .
- We're also coming into quarter end and we
may see some quarter end window dressing .
- this week that could help push
up the stock market indices. .
- Now, when we look at the seasonality
charts back in February, we were expecting .
- the VIX to spike in the month of
March, and that certainly happened. .
- Historically, after that spike, we move
down until at least the end of April. .
- That's usually bullish
for the stock market. .
- We were expecting the S&P 500 and the TSX
to both sell off in the month of March. .
- Now, historically, we're looking for a .
- move up to at least the end of
April, if not into early May. .
- Now, that may not happen this year because .
- there's a lot more going on than
usually happens around this time. .
- This time of year, we're looking at
corporate profits and corporate outlooks, .
- but there's a lot more on the table this
year with the Fed trying to fight .
- inflation and the Fed's also
trying to avoid a banking crisis. .
- Now, the market's been focused on the
problem with US regional banks over the .
- past couple of weeks, but the global
market has been focused on .
- Credit Suisse, which has been devolving
over the past couple of years. .
- And if you look at who's in control, you
can see on the weekly Who's in control .
- chart that the pros really haven't had any
interest in this stock in quite a while. .
- And so the company was saved this week. .
- The stock certainly wasn't. .
- The stock was down
another 57 % on the week. .
- So that is a banking crisis that just .
- might move from one bank to another
with UBS picking up Credit Suisse. .
- Now, of course,
Credit Suisse has been a problem for a .
- while, but the market didn't care about
it until the regional banking crisis. .
- And so now we're living with several
banking crisis going on at the same time. .
- Now, Deutsche Bank was
down on the week over 5 %. .
- It's been down the last
three weeks in a row. .
- Now people are concerned about that bank. .
- The US regional banks
have somewhat stabilized. .
- There's no guarantee that
we're not going to head lower. .
- But Fifth Third, for example, actually .
- closed slightly higher on the
week inside week for that stock. .
- It doesn't mean the crisis is over. .
- It just means it's stopped
for the present time. .
- Now, when I look at Citigroup, you can see
it's coming down again to the $40 level, .
- which has acted as major support
over the last couple of years. .
- If that breaks, that's going to be a very .
- ugly sign that we're heading
back down to the COVID lows. .
- Then we're looking at CIBC,
which has some US exposure. .
- It's coming down to the
53.flypaper58 level. .
- It's still a couple of dollars
away, but could hit it this week. .
- And that would be a big breaking point for
that stock if it was to take out that low. .
- The Royal Bank is holding up fairly
well still in the Fly Paper channel. .
- The TD Bank, which has the largest US .
- exposure, is starting to break down below
those recent lows from back in 2022. .
- And then we've got Bank of America, which
has broken down below those lows and it .
- traded down to just above the
open gap from back in 2020. .
- The top of that gap is at 26.30. The low .
- this week was 26.32. So we got two cents
away from the top of the open gap. .
- That's not filling the gap. .
- We haven't even touched the gap yet. .
- But you can see that there are some orders .
- in just above that open gap that people
are trying to pick the bottom here. .
- And there's certainly no evidence
that we have a bottom yet. .
- Bank of America still closed
down 2.44 % on the week. .
- Now, we've had some upward momentum here, .
- and it's mostly in the technology sector
being led higher by the semiconductors. .
- So the gains that we've seen
lately are incredibly narrow. .
- There's not a lot going on in the upside. .
- We've also had gold shoot up over the past
couple of weeks, and that has also taken .
- gold stocks to the top
of the winners list. .
- So we've got gold, we've
got semiconductors. .
- What's not working? .
- Anything financial dividends, preferred
shares, anything out there is all heading .
- in the other direction,
whether it's US banks or regional banks. .
- Now, if the global economy is going to
slow down, there's going to be less need .
- for crude oil, and that is certainly
reflected in the current price of crude .
- oil, which made a new low this week
before recovering and closing up 2.75 %. .
- Still trading and closing
below the lower channel line. .
- Did not close above the previous week's .
- high, so no sign of anything
new happening in crude oil. .
- Moving on to the VIX, and the weekly VIX .
- is still on a buy signal,
which is negative for stocks. .
- That would change this
coming Friday below 1975. .
- Now, looking at it weekly chart of the .
- price targets for the VIX, one thing
that's bullish here is we made a high back .
- here, and now we've made
a series of lower highs. .
- So this is certainly could be the start of .
- something if the VIX wants
to move lower from here. .
- On the daily charts, we did have that day .
- where the VIX came down,
gave a sell signal. .
- We talked about waiving off those signals .
- because we thought that
anything that was coming up ahead of the .
- Fed meeting or during the Fed meeting was
probably going to reverse fairly quickly. .
- And that's exactly what happened. .
- Now, on Friday, we closed at 2170, and you .
- can see that 21 59 is the
lower channel line there. .
- So if we're going to see more
negativity, we need to close above 2564. .
- If we're going to see some buying going .
- into month end, we need
the VIX below 21 59. .
- Let's finish off this weekend's .
- presentation and we'll look at the
daily index ETF charts that we follow. .
- Starting with the iS shares for the TSX .
- 60, we closed right at the
lower channel line on Friday. .
- Looking for a close on Monday above
29.99 to give us a new buy signal. .
- And of course, if that doesn't happen, .
- that upper channel line is going
to continue to move lower daily. .
- Similar situation for the DOW Diamonds. .
- We're looking for a close above 324.85.
We did get a buy signal on Tuesday. .
- We waived that off going into the Fed .
- meeting and still waiting
for reconfirmation. .
- The next close above the upper
channel line would do that. .
- And then looking at the SPY, we're
still on a sell signal here. .
- Again, we had the buy signal on Tuesday,
we waived that off, .
- and now we're looking for a close on
Monday above 397.06. Now, what is working? .
- Well, the Nasdaq was on a buy
signal coming into this week. .
- I had an inside day on Friday looking for
a close on Monday below $300.57. If that .
- doesn't happen, that lower channel line is
going to continue to move higher daily. .
- Then looking at semiconductors using the .
- XSD ETF, we were down 2 % on
Friday, still on a buy signal. .
- Things would change for the semiconductors
on Monday with a close below 197.40. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Stock index futures have started
trading on Sunday night. .
- So far, they're above fair value. .
- Asian markets haven't opened yet. .
- So far, we know that there hasn't been any
new bombshells to go off over the weekend. .
- We may see the start of
a major banking crisis. .
- We've had some little blips so far. .
- Generally, what happens is everybody wants .
- to share good news, but nobody
wants to share bad news. .
- When there is bad news out there,
other people with bad news like to share .
- it at the same time so
they get some cover. .
- They're not the only ones that screwed up. .
- That could be what happens here. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- I'm really not .
- interested in taking on any new
positions for the next couple of days. .
- We'll just wait and see what happens at .
- month end and see which way the
market wants to take us next. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning. .