- Hello, everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here from .
- theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing, Television. .
- Well, this week was all about
getting what you expect. .
- We were expecting a bullish bias going .
- into month end and quarter end,
and that's exactly what we got. .
- We were also looking at the seasonal .
- charts and the market pretty well
played through the seasonal tendencies. .
- We were expecting a peak in the VIX in the
middle of the month and then for the VIX .
- to decline into month end, and
that's exactly what happened. .
- We were expecting the S&P 500 to make a
bottom in the middle of the month and then .
- run up into month end,
and that's what happened. .
- And we were expecting the TSX to do .
- something similar, and that's what
happened, sometimes you get what you .
- expect, but unfortunately,
there's no guarantee that that's going to .
- happen the next time we're
looking at those seasonal charts. .
- Now, going into April, it looks
like we've got four aces. .
- The seasonal tendency is to the upside in
the month of April, but of course, we've .
- got a lot of stuff going on and the
market could easily go either way. .
- The Fed is still trying
to fight inflation. .
- It's also trying to keep
banks from collapsing. .
- Now, with the Fed having to fight two .
- fires at once,
I think the stock market believes it has .
- leverage over the Fed in which
it can cause the Fed to pivot. .
- And a pivot for the Fed means that they .
- stop doing what they say
they were going to do. .
- It doesn't mean they're
going to decrease rates. .
- Maybe they'll just pause,
or maybe they will. .
- Instead of raising rates, they'll
say they're going to decrease rates. .
- If they do that, that's quite a message to .
- the market that the financial
crisis is much worse than we know. .
- And so as the stock market is going up, .
- remember, it's buy the
rumor, sell the news. .
- So if the Fed does decide to pivot, that .
- does not mean the stock
market is going to go up. .
- In fact, I think it's highly likely to go
down if the Fed does pivot as the stock .
- market is already pricing that
information in. .
- Now, we've been talking about
how this market is very thin. .
- Most of the gains are from a handful of .
- stocks, and it's easy to spot the handful
of stocks on this particular graphic. .
- This is a heat map, a 30 day
heat map of the S&P 500. .
- You can see where all the money is. .
- The size of the rectangular squares is
the value of the company, and you can see .
- who's winning Apple, Microsoft,
Google, Amazon, Tesla. .
- These are all meta. .
- These are all the big winners and you
can see all the smaller companies. .
- Again, this is the S&P 500, so there's no
real small companies here, .
- but certainly they can be
small compared to, say, Apple. .
- But you can see where all the winning
has been over the past 30 days. .
- Looking at the Canadian market,
it's more concentrated. .
- The mining stocks over here, the .
- technology stocks over here,
and then a spattering of gains. .
- While there's a lot of the Canadian market
is involved in financials and you can see .
- the financials have not been
winners over the last 30 days. .
- That is certainly no news to anybody. .
- But here we are. .
- We're seeing the market make
gains on the back of really a handful of .
- stocks or sectors, and that's not
necessarily healthy going forward. .
- Now, as we've mentioned many times the
Nasdaq has been leading the market higher. .
- It's been leading the market
higher from a lower point. .
- So it's not that impressive just yet. .
- But over the past couple of months,
it's been quite impressive. .
- We still have a ways to go before
we get to the summer highs. .
- Now, that's a little different
than the Semiconductors. .
- And we've been talking about the
semiconductors leading the Nasdaq higher. .
- They've broken out above the summer highs. .
- And so the next target to the upside is .
- this pivot point here from
back in the spring of 2022. .
- Now, if I didn't know what was going on
and I wasn't watching the market every day .
- and I just pulled up the weekly fly paper
channel, I basically look at these charts .
- and just say, Hey, the market
is in neutral at the moment. .
- It hasn't shifted into first gear. .
- It hasn't shifted into reverse. .
- It is in neutral. .
- And that's true for the
DAO and the S&P 500. .
- The Nasdaq is starting to poke its
head out above the fly paper channel. .
- It certainly hasn't broken away from it, .
- unlike the semiconductors, which
broke away from it a while ago. .
- And you can see the high we made
right at the start of 2023. .
- We haven't taken that high out yet. .
- So that's going to be something that's
going to come up over the next few days. .
- And if we can take that out, what happens .
- at this high from back
and the start of 2022? .
- So we've got a couple of resistance points .
- for the semiconductors, and we'll have
to see how the market deals with that. .
- If they can slice through those areas of .
- resistance, that's a bullish
sign for the overall market. .
- And then looking at the TSX,
we're in the channel, so it's neutral. .
- Unfortunately, money has come out of the .
- energy sector, but a lot of it has gone
into gold stocks, so that's neutral. .
- Unfortunately, the weight of the financial
sector has been a burden on the TSX. .
- Now, we did see money come back into
the financial sector this week. .
- We did see some daily buy signals,
certainly no weekly buy signals so far. .
- So for the XLF, we were up just a tick .
- under three and three quarters %, closing
just above the previous week's high. .
- That could turn out to be
bullish going forward. .
- And then banks, inside
week for banks, up 3.23 %. .
- Inside week for regional banks,
just up over three quarters of a %. .
- Then we saw nice big gains for the broker .
- dealers and for the insurance
stocks, which were up over 4 %. .
- Still having an Inside Week, and so you .
- can see that the financial crisis is more
focused on the regional banks and the .
- banks, but not really the broker
dealers and the insurance companies. .
- But again, we're seeing some daily buy
signals, certainly no weekly buy signals. .
- Looking at Canadian financials, we did .
- close above the previous
week's high up 2.93 %. .
- Canadian banks up 3.06 %. .
- Again, closing above the
previous week's high. .
- That could be the start of something
we'll just have to wait and see. .
- Now, the best performing Canadian
bank stock was National Bank. .
- Of course, it has very little US
exposure, up 4.32 % on the week. .
- In the US, the best performing financial
on the S&P 500 was First Republic. .
- Now, First Republic was
up over 13 % on the week. .
- But when a stock has fallen from over $200 .
- down towards $10, it's very hard
to see a 13 % gain on the chart. .
- So it looks like an inside week for .
- First Republic, and of course, an
inside week is a week of indecision. .
- Now, the worst performing financial on
the S&P 500 was Citizens Financial. .
- It was only down 2.35 %. .
- Again, having an inside week. .
- Now, the risk on button has been flipped. .
- Everybody seems to be happy. .
- Does that mean that gold
is going to stop going up? .
- It got stalled around 2000 and it
pulled back just $12 on the week. .
- Gold stocks, on the other hand, continued
to move higher heading towards those highs .
- from early 2023 on both
sides of the border. .
- Then looking at the cryptocurrencies, we .
- only follow two and that's
Bitcoin and Ethereum. .
- Both of them had positive week. .
- So that's part of the risk on trade. .
- And then we've got the US dollar index .
- which had an inside week
closing slightly lower. .
- So if the financial world was about to .
- stumble, we would expect gold
to continue to move higher. .
- We would expect money to
flow into the US dollar. .
- That's not happening at the moment. .
- So we've got a lot of conflicting
signals here and what we need to do is .
- just follow the money and the
money is going up at the moment. .
- Now, the VIX has come down. .
- It is back on a weekly sell signal, which .
- of course, is supportive
for higher stock prices. .
- That would change this coming Friday if
the VIX were to close above .
- $24.93. On a daily basis, we made
a new low for this move on Friday. .
- Things would change on Monday for the VIX .
- if we closed above $22.92. Of course, if
that doesn't happen on Monday, that upper .
- channel line is going to
continue to move lower daily. .
- We're sitting right at 1875,
closed at 1870 on Friday. .
- This is the bottom of
the range for the Vicks. .
- That does not guarantee a reversal right
away, but it's certainly telling us .
- probably don't have a lot
further to go for the VIX. .
- That may tell us that we don't have a lot
further to go on the upside for the stock .
- market, but we'll just
have to wait and see. .
- Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- There is a lot of danger in the air at the .
- moment, but we're here to follow the
money and the money is going up. .
- The VIX is coming down, so we're going
to continue to follow the money. .
- If we're wrong and the market starts to .
- roll over, we want to
be wrong for one bar. .
- And so if you're a long term investor,
that one bar is one weekly bar. .
- If you're a trader, you want
to be wrong for one day. .
- And so if the market starts to reverse, if .
- the VIX starts to go up, then we
need to take action at that time. .
- But we've got a falling VIX, and for the .
- most part, we've got a market that wants
to move higher, not all sectors, but the .
- market is showing that
it wants to go higher. .
- And we may see the bank stocks start to
come back over the next couple of weeks. .
- So just follow the money. .
- Don't worry about the news or people
talking about market crashes. .
- We're not seeing that at the moment. .
- Even though you can feel
that, we're not seeing that. .
- So yes, April can be a rainy month. .
- It's slippery when it's wet out there, and
we're just going to watch the money and .
- follow it and not worry about all
the other stuff that's going on. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning. you.. .