- Hello, everyone. .
- It's Stephen White side here from .
- theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well, there was one big news story this .
- week, and that was the Saudi's
cutting oil production. .
- You can see on Monday that
the price of oil spiked up. .
- It hit resistance and
our next price target. .
- Congratulations. .
- If you picked up crude oil recently and .
- put in an order at 75 or at 78.13,
they both got filled on Monday. .
- Your $75 order would have been filled at .
- the open, and the 78.13 order would
have been filled later in the day. .
- We've come up to resistance. .
- We've been treading water for the past
couple of days, and a lot of that has to .
- do with hitting the 200
day moving average. .
- That's where we topped out previously .
- several times over the
past six months or so. .
- Here we are, once again, waiting to see if .
- we can break out above the
200 day moving average. .
- Now, that move up in crude oil helped the
TSX move up on the week, and it was up .
- just 1.02 % on the week, sitting
right on the upper channel line. .
- So we need to close this coming Friday .
- three cents higher than we closed
on the past Thursday. .
- Now, while a spike in crude oil prices can
be beneficial for the Canadian stock .
- market, it can also put a
lid on the US stock market. .
- And looking at the S&P 500
ETF, look at how small that bar is .
- compared to the bars from
the previous weeks here. .
- And you'd have to go back quite a
while to find a bar that small. .
- So very quiet week for the S&P 500,
closing down just 20 cents on the week. .
- So nothing going on there. .
- We did have an inside week for the
Nasdaq 100 and a little more volatility. .
- It was down just under 1 % on the
week, so not a major move there. .
- There was a major move for the .
- semiconductors, but all it did was
unwind the gains from the previous week. .
- So we didn't close below
the previous week's low. .
- Maybe we would have if it was a five
day week, but it was a four day week. .
- And so for this particular ETF, we're .
- looking for a close below
191.19 this coming Friday. .
- If we look at some daily charts of the
major chip companies, you can see Advanced .
- Micro Devices rolled over on Wednesday and
on Thursday, it stayed on a sell signal. .
- So that's already on a sell signal. .
- Intel, on the other hand, peaked on
Tuesday and had a pullback .
- on Wednesday and very small pullback on
Thursday, just down two cents on the day. .
- So it's still holding its gains. .
- It's one of the best performing stocks and .
- it's certainly not a stock
I've ever recommended. .
- But over the past couple of months, it's .
- outperformed just about
every other semiconductor. .
- And so it's having its time in the sun. .
- On Monday, we're looking for a close below .
- $30.93. Not expecting
that to happen on Monday. .
- We may see a sell signal for NVIDIA with a .
- close below
265.62. And then looking at Marvell, third .
- day of a sell signal there, making a
new low for this move on Thursday. .
- And then Taiwan Semiconnectors,
inside day on Friday. .
- So we're on a sell signal here. .
- Notice the high that we made in March is
a lower high than we had in February. .
- So that could turn out to be a
very bearish sign going forward. .
- Looking at the VIX on the week, the VIX .
- continued to move lower,
down 1.6 % on the week. .
- This coming Friday, we're going to need to .
- see a close above $24.72 to tell us that
the mood in the option pits has changed. .
- Now, if you're trading on Monday, we'll be .
- looking for a close above
$21.14. If that doesn't happen on Monday, .
- of course, that upper channel line is
going to continue to move lower daily. .
- Now, the big story this week
is going to be bank earnings. .
- They're starting to come out this week, .
- and of course, banks are
still in the doghouse. .
- The SPY Bank ETF was down 2.32
%, so still holding above the low from a .
- couple of weeks ago,
but there's nothing going on there. .
- Looking at Canadian banks,
they perform better. .
- They traded up to the upper channel line, .
- so they did not see as big
a sell off as US banks did. .
- But they're still in the doghouse and down
a little over a third of a % on the week. .
- Now, one bank you need to keep
an eye on is the TD Bank. .
- It's still on a weekly sell signal,
ended the week down just under half a %. .
- You may have seen these headlines that TD .
- Bank is now the world's
most shorted vendor. .
- And of course, this is because
of their exposure in the US. .
- And short bets against TD Bank are
now worth a whopping $3.7 billion. .
- So there's a lot of institutional money .
- out there betting that TD Bank has
probably shown up at the wrong time at the .
- wrong place trying to invest more
money into the US banking sector. .
- What worked over the
past four trading days? .
- Well, it was gold stocks. .
- And so there's the GDX trading up
towards the top of the panic zones. .
- There's an open gap just above
us that could get hit this week. .
- And that might be a catalyst
for a top in the GDX. .
- We ran up to our next price target. .
- We're looking at the weekly chart here in .
- 34.38. We hit that closed at
34.43 on Friday. .
- So right at our next price target. .
- Congratulations. .
- If you are long GDX and you had an order .
- in to get filled at 34.38,
it got filled this week. .
- Then looking at the weekly right side .
- chart, you can see that we've had a couple
of very strong weeks, four in a row. .
- And so we're certainly well
above the upper channel line. .
- And the first sign something new is going .
- to happen is a close below
the previous week's low. .
- And that's certainly not anything
we're contemplating here. .
- Now looking at a daily chart of the GDX,
you can see we made a new high on .
- Wednesday and we continue to
close higher on Thursday. .
- So that's still looking very bullish. .
- On Monday, we're looking for a close below
31.99. Not expecting that to happen. .
- And of course, that lower channel line is
going to continue to move higher daily. .
- Looking north of the border at the XGD, .
- you can see we're moving up towards
the top of the panic zones. .
- We hit our price target of $20.31.
And next target above that is $21.88. And .
- you can see the weekly right
side charts looking very strong. .
- We've taken out the high
from a couple of months ago. .
- Now, looking at a daily chart of
our price targets, it's also at 20. .
- 31.
Notice that we ran up and then on .
- Wednesday and Thursday, we traded
above it, but we're still stuck to it. .
- So we haven't broken away just yet. .
- If we can break away, then 21.88
would be our next price target. .
- And looking down on Monday, we need a .
- close below 19.19. Not expecting
that to happen on Monday. .
- And of course, if it doesn't happen on .
- Monday, that lower channel line is
going to continue to move higher daily. .
- What didn't work this week? .
- Well, if you're watching the videos during
the week, we were talking about some of .
- the major resistance out there
that the market had got stuck at. .
- And one of the areas we were
looking at were the Transports. .
- And so for the week, they
moved down on the week. .
- You can see that it was
actually an inside week. .
- So nothing new to tell. .
- It was a pause week, a week of indecision. .
- Now we're looking for a breakout or a
breakdown of the previous week's range. .
- That's what we're looking for this week. .
- Fedex is still holding this sector up. .
- It made a new high this week. .
- It's had quite a nice run
over the past couple of months. .
- UPS is still on a weekly buy signal. .
- It pulled back 2.79 % on the week. .
- Certainly not tracking and moving with the
same speed that FedEx is, but it's still .
- on a weekly buy signal,
so no change there. .
- But looking at some of the other stocks in .
- the transportation index, you've got
American Airlines was down on the week. .
- It was down over 5 % on the
week, having an inside week. .
- Again, a week of indecision. .
- Nice big drop for CH Robinson. .
- It was down 6.7 % on the week. .
- Inside week for Delta
Airlines, down on the week. .
- Then we've got Matson making
a new low for this move. .
- Then we've got Norfolk Southern
having an inside week. .
- Then we've got an inside
week for United Airlines. .
- None of these charts look very bullish. .
- We're looking to see if
the transports are going to take out the .
- high or the low from the
previous week's range. .
- That's the next thing we're looking for. .
- If we do break down, that's probably going .
- to be a very bearish sign for
the overall stock market. .
- Now, looking at the Canadian .
- transportation sector, obviously, much
smaller selection of companies, and these .
- are all local as opposed to a lot
of the US companies are global. .
- We've got a Cargo Jet making a
new closing low for this move. .
- We've got Air Canada closing lower on the .
- week, nearly 3 % having an inside week,
so still on a weekly sell signal. .
- Then both the major railroads, Canadian .
- National and Canadian Pacific, are
still on a weekly sell signals. .
- Obviously, both of those companies are
holding up fairly well, but they are still .
- on a weekly sell signals,
so no change there. .
- Okay, folks, that is all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Thank you very much for
your time and attention. .
- Hope you're having a wonderful weekend. .
- And for this week, we'll just
be watching the bank stocks. .
- That's going to be the major catalyst for
big moves in the stock market this week. .
- Thank you very much for
your time and attention. .
- And the next time you come you'll hear
my voice is on Tuesday morning. you.. .