- Hello, everyone. .
- It's Stephen White side here from the .
- uptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing Television. .
- Well, we made it through month end and we .
- were looking for some selling this
week and we got some selling. .
- In fact, this week was a very sloppy week. .
- Starting on Monday, we had a
bearish reversal day on the DOW. .
- We saw fall through to the downside on
Tuesday, which tells us that Monday should .
- be the high for this
particular move in the market. .
- We continued to see fall through to the .
- downside on Wednesday, and that's
after the market was able to react to the .
- Fed Minutes and to the
Fed Press Conference. .
- We also continued down on Thursday. .
- Now, coming in to Friday, we had the
employment numbers and the market reacted .
- very positively to positive
employment numbers. .
- And that is a little bizarre. .
- Those positive employment numbers
basically tell the Fed that they have no .
- reason to stop raising
interest rates at this time. .
- And so what I would have assumed would
have caused the market to sell off on .
- Friday, caused the market to
actually go up on the day. .
- Now, the DOW and the S&P 500 traded down
to the 200 day moving average and bounced. .
- So that is still a
significant area of support. .
- Now, moving from daily to weekly charts,
the DOW was actually the biggest loser of .
- the four major indices that
we follow, down 1.26 %. .
- Notice how big the bar is. .
- It traded all the way down to the lower
channel line after making a higher high .
- this week, we closed right
at the upper channel line. .
- So certainly the DOW could generate a sell .
- signal this week with a close below
$328.58. Now, the S&P 500 it's still .
- closed above the upper channel line, down
a little over three quarters of a %. .
- Notice where resistance is, the high from .
- earlier this year, just above
where we traded up to this week. .
- So we may be able to test that this week. .
- Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq had
an interesting week, actually an inside .
- week with a double top there up at 323.76.
So it's just we're a whisper away from .
- making a new high for
the Nasdaq this week. .
- Then looking at the semiconductors, they
had an inside week down ever so slightly. .
- And then looking at the Canadian market,
the ishares for the TSX 60 closed down .
- just under half a % after making
a new high for this move. .
- Now, there was a lot of stocks that had
very exaggerated moves this week, .
- including Shopify up
over 26 % on the week. .
- Then we saw Thompson Reuter's
down just under 10 %. .
- We saw Gildan Activewear
down over 10 % on the week. .
- Now, Walgreens was the biggest loser
on the DOW this week, down 8.7 %. .
- The biggest winner on the S&P 500 was .
- Royal Caribbean, up 15.56 %,
followed by Live Nation, up 13.84 %. .
- Then down at the bottom of the list, we .
- had CBS Paramount down
over 27 % on the week. .
- That was a huge move lower, followed
by Estee Lauder down 17.5 %. .
- In both cases, we're still
holding the lows from last fall. .
- We'll have to see if those
lows continue this week. .
- Rubbermaid, on the other hand, have
already broken through the fall lows, and .
- they've broken through the
2023 lows, down 16.79 %. .
- Now, regional banks are still in the news,
and I just want to make something very .
- clear, even though we're
looking at these charts. .
- I have never bought a regional bank. .
- I have no interest in any
of these regional banks. .
- We are watching the regional bank sector
closely because it is a financial crisis .
- that could roll over into other
areas of financial markets. .
- We know that already.
It's already happened, .
- but it could continue to get worse and
pull down the US financial system. .
- So that's why we're watching them closely. .
- I would not buy any of these individually. .
- Now, if you want to be involved in this .
- sector, do it through the ETF
and spread your risk out. .
- Now, the ETF was down again over 10
%, making a new low for this move. .
- If it starts to turn around, if you think
regional banks are going to get saved, if .
- you think that there's light at the
end of the tunnel, then do the ETF. .
- Don't do the individual regional banks. .
- Now, they are incredibly volatile. .
- And on Friday, we saw some huge numbers
that have attracted a lot of people. .
- And the only people that those huge .
- numbers benefit, are the people
that bought on Thursday. .
- And so, for example, Zion was
up nearly 20 % on Friday. .
- The one everybody's talking about is
PacWest, which was up over 80 % on Friday. .
- The only people that benefit from that
are the people that bought on Thursday. .
- Can you imagine buying a regional bank on .
- Thursday after it made a new low and
broke down below the low from March? .
- Can you believe that? .
- But that's the type of
risk you have to take. .
- But that's not the type
of risk we want to take. .
- That would just not be a good thing. .
- Please don't do that. .
- These regional banks are all one press
release away from being worthless. .
- So please don't be buying
individual regional banks. .
- Now, this seems like a very good place to .
- drop in a little tutorial
on the mathematics of loss. .
- This is not something
they teach you in school. .
- Let's say, for example, you had a regional .
- bank that was trading
at $100 two years ago. .
- It's now down $95,
currently trading at $5. .
- It's pretty easy for a high school student .
- to figure out you've lost 95 %
of the value of this particular stock. .
- Now, the problem is how much does the .
- stock have to go up for you
to get your money back? .
- If you ask nine out of 10 people on the
street, they'll tell you, Well, it has to .
- go up 100 % for you to get
your money back, at least. .
- And they're totally wrong. .
- That's not how much it has to go up. .
- 95 %, 100 % isn't going to
get you your money back. .
- In this particular example, it's got to go
up 1900 % for you to get your money back. .
- And that's not something that .
- statistically is going to happen,
maybe not in your lifetime. .
- So a lot of people end up going down with
the ship and the ship never rises again. .
- I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but .
- at one time, the US had a very vibrant
savings and loan industry, .
- and that all dried up when the
savings and loan industry collapsed. .
- And there's a pretty good chance that the .
- regional bank industry is also
going to collapse in the US. .
- And some of these stocks will
just never, ever, ever recover. .
- Let's move on to commodities. .
- It was a negative week for energy
with crude oil down 6.31 %. .
- 62.50 still holding as support. .
- I think the low of the week was 63. .
- So if that breaks, then $50 would
be our next target to the downside. .
- Natural gas down nearly 10 % on the week. .
- If you look at our weekly price
targets, 156 is our next target. .
- The daily target right now is 234. .
- Below that is 156. .
- So we're still holding at the 234 level. .
- We closed at 232. .
- The high of the week was 234.90.
So we're still stuck to the 234 level. .
- Was expecting more of a bounce. .
- We did see some buying in April, but
nothing to take us up to 313 or 391. .
- Still waiting for that to happen. .
- Looking at energy stocks, they were down
on both sides of the border. order, back .
- on sell signals for the TSX
and for the SPY Energy Sector ETF, both .
- down, closing below the lower
channel line this week. .
- Now looking at the mining
sector, starting with copper. .
- Copper was down ever so slightly on the
week, so no aggressive selling in copper. .
- Gold, on the other hand, made a new high .
- for this move, pulling back,
going into the end of the week. .
- We're still stuck to 2,000. .
- Our next target is 2,125. .
- Silver is still stuck to 25. .
- Our next target is 28.
12. .
- Then looking at the mining stocks, the
GDX was up 5.42 %, still stuck to 34.38. .
- And then looking at the XGD.TO, it was
also up on the week, up 4.34 %, still .
- stuck to $20.31.
Let's finish off this weekend's .
- presentation with the
VIX or the fear index. .
- If you're a long term investor, we're
still long term bullish on the market. .
- That would change this coming Friday if .
- the VIX were to close above
$22.38. Now, if you're a short term .
- trader, it's been pretty sloppy
the last couple of weeks. .
- We went on a buy signal, then a sell
signal, this week another buy signal. .
- Coming into Monday's trading action,
we're still on a buy signal. .
- We traded down to the lower channel line .
- on Friday looking for a close below 1685
on Monday to give us a sell signal, and .
- that would turn us
short term bullish on the market. .
- Looking at the price targets, you can see
that we traded up towards the 21.88 level. .
- You can see support at
15.63 is currently holding. .
- Now up at that 21.88 level, that's where
you get the 200 day moving average. .
- You can see it's been a while
since we punched through that. .
- That is currently acting as resistance. .
- Okay, folks, that is all for
this weekend's presentation. .
- Last week was very sloppy. .
- A lot of traders and investors were on the
wrong side of individual stocks, and we .
- saw huge explosions in
the opposite direction. .
- A lot of those stocks I wouldn't
be chasing higher at the moment. .
- Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Next time you'll hear my .
- voice is on Tuesday morning. .