- Good morning everyone, and
welcome to Thursday Morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here from the .
- uptrend.com in the pre market this
morning, things are fairly quiet. .
- We've got stock index futures
slightly above fair value. .
- The market is waiting for employment
numbers to come out at 830. .
- And then we've also got some other .
- economic numbers coming out
between 8:30 and 10:00 A.m .
- that could add to pre market volatility. .
- Let's start off today's presentation,
looking at weekly charts. .
- I just printed these off this
morning to see where we are sitting. .
- The DOW is up just a third
of a percent on the week. .
- The S&P 500 is up zero point 84%,
so getting close to 1% gain so far. .
- The high from earlier
this year was up at 4195. .
- 44.
So as we get closer to 4200, we know that .
- there is resistance up there as the
recent high did not retest the 4195. .
- 44 level. .
- So, so far we're still
heading in that direction. .
- We'll have to see what the market does
if it can get back to that level. .
- Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq
continues to lead the market higher. .
- And as you can see, we're getting
very close to the high from 2022. .
- Looking at the Russell 2000,
we're up nearly 2% on the week. .
- Not sure if you saw this headline the .
- other day, but Apple is now worth more
than all of the Russell 2000 put together. .
- Now Apple is not my friend at the moment. .
- For the last couple of weeks,
we've been trying to hit 175. .
- That's our next price target. .
- We've got as high as 174.
59. .
- And remember, what we call price targets,
the rest of the world calls resistance. .
- And resistance is holding
Apple in check at the moment. .
- Looking down on Thursday, and Apple has .
- traded in the channel for
the past couple of days. .
- We need a close below 170. .
- 45 to kick us out of the remainder
of our Apple position on Thursday. .
- Then looking at the Canadian market, the .
- TSX is down 0.6%. So a
little over half a percent. .
- And that has a lot to
do with mining stocks. .
- And the Venture Exchange is down
just a tick, under 1% for the week. .
- Now, we've seen a lot of pops and
drops over the last couple of weeks. .
- That tells me that investors are on edge. .
- They're not willing to put money into
stocks ahead of earnings reports. .
- One that was a real mystery on Tuesday
was Home Depot, which led the DOW lower. .
- And then on Wednesday, complete
reversal and it led the DOW higher. .
- So investors really squeamish right now. .
- And that is a sign, of course, of a .
- possible recession, of
possible bank failures. .
- There's all kinds of stuff going on. .
- And of course, there could be a black
swan out there that we're not aware of. .
- Looking at technology stocks, again, .
- they're leading the market
higher on Wednesday. .
- And we see that semiconductors came back a .
- couple of days ago and they
had a big update on Wednesday. .
- Now, when we look at the winners and .
- losers from Wednesday, it was the
regional banks were the biggest winners. .
- And look down, see how far you have to get
on our list of ETFs before we get to a .
- Canadian sector that
moved up on Wednesday. .
- So Regional Banks, the big winners on .
- Wednesday, up over 7% on the day, being
led higher by Comerica, the top performing .
- stock on the SP 500, and
the second was Zion's. .
- Both back on buy signals
as of Wednesday's close. .
- Canadian Western Bank, the only real .
- regional bank in Canada, has been on a
buy signal for a couple of weeks now. .
- So no change in trend there. .
- And then looking at the SPDR Bank, ETF .
- back on a buy signal, spider
Financials back on a buy signal. .
- Then looking at Canadian banks, no change. .
- We were on a buy signal. .
- Then it reversed and we're
still on a sell signal. .
- And the Canadian financials are
also still on a sell signal. .
- Now, we recently talked about the TD Bank. .
- It was in the news,
the media was reporting that the TD Bank .
- was the biggest shorted
bank stock in the world. .
- That was April 5. .
- So we don't know exactly when they
put on those short positions. .
- I just concerned that when somebody sees a .
- headline like this that they also
might want to short the TD Bank. .
- And of course, anytime we talk about
shorting, what we're talking about is .
- we're coming off the
top of the panic zones. .
- The early warning signal has gone off the .
- chart, has start to turn
color from blue to red. .
- We get a sell signal on
the right side chart. .
- That is when you short a stock down
here is when the public shorts a stock. .
- Why? .
- Because now they've got enough
psychological support to help them .
- psychologically pull the
trigger and short a stock. .
- Now, April 5 was right in here and that's .
- when the news reports came out and the
stock started to move up from that point. .
- So a lot of times it's buy
the rumor, sell the news. .
- And if the news was that there were
billions of dollars of TD Bank stock .
- shorted, that that was the news and you
buy the rumor and you sell the news. .
- And if the news was that the stock has
been shorted, how do you sell that? .
- Well, you buy the stock, you do
the opposite of the news story. .
- And that's exactly what happened so far. .
- Let's finish off looking at commodities. .
- We've got the USO back on a buy signal,
we've got Gasoline back on a buy signal. .
- That's rather unfortunate
as we get towards the summer, we don't .
- want to see gasoline prices rising
going into the summer, do we? .
- Now, natural gas is also on a buy signal, .
- so no change in trends for
gasoline or natural gas. .
- We've got a big move up though in
crude oil back on a buy signal. .
- That should help the energy stocks, which .
- were up yesterday, but still on a sell
signal for the Ishares for the TSX Energy .
- sector and the SPDR ETF
for the US energy sector .
- both up nicely on Wednesday, but
not enough to give us a buy signal. .
- Now the price of gold has
been coming down this week. .
- It is sitting just below 2,000. .
- You can see that this is where
the recent lows were put in. .
- If we look at what the pros and the public
are doing, nobody really wants gold to .
- move away from $2,000, but it
is starting to slip below it. .
- The price of silver a little more
committed to trading below $25. .
- As you can see, the pros gave up control a .
- few days ago and so silver traders more
comfortable with the silver below 25. .
- When we look at the price of gold and
silver, they both declined quite a bit .
- from the start of February
into late February. .
- And what was going on at that time? .
- Well, the US dollar was rising and
look at what's going on right now. .
- The US dollar has started to move up. .
- So that could be the reason that precious .
- metals have been pulling back
over the last couple of days. .
- And of course, with precious metals .
- falling, it's harder to see
gold and silver stocks rise. .
- And so there's the GDX making
a new low for this move. .
- There's the XGD also making a new
low for this move on Wednesday. .
- Okay folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation. .
- Have a great day. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Friday morning. .