• Hello, everyone, .
• and welcome to this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing, Television. .
• Of course, my name is Stephen Whiteside. .
• I'll be your host this weekend. .
• Now, looking at the weekly charts, it .
• looked like it was a fairly quiet week for the market. .
• A couple of standouts, of course, .
• technology stocks, especially the chips, led the markets higher. .
• Otherwise volatility was very quiet and the VIX is down near long term support. .
• We may not see the VIX push any lower from this point as options traders probably .
• don't want to sell options for any cheaper than they're selling for right now. .
• Starting off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we were down 1.29 % on the week. .
• This coming Friday, if we were to close above$21.27, then we would go from a .
• position of being long term bullish to being long term bearish on the market. .
• Looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you .
• can see we traded up into the channel on Friday. .
• On Monday, we'd be looking for a close .
• above $18 and 14 cents to give us a new daily buy signal. .
• And if that were to happen, then we'd become short term bearish on the market. .
• As I mentioned, we've come down to support at the 15.63 level. .
• That is both daily and weekly support. .
• Now, I don't think that's going to break at the present time. .
• I really don't think that what's going on in the world is going to let options .
• traders to sell options for less premium than they're selling for right now. .
• But it could happen. .
• And if it does, if we do sell you start .
• breaking the recent lows, then 12.50 is our next target to the downside. .
• Looking up on the VIX, .
• I'd be quite concerned if the VIX started trading above the 200 day moving average. .
• Of course, if the US were to default on its debt, then I certainly would expect .
• the VIX to be up over the 200 day moving average. .
• Looking at weekly charts, starting with the DAO Diamond, you can see we traded .
• down to the lower channel during the week but did not close below it. .
• We actually closed up just under a third of a %. .
• Then what was the drag on the DOW this week? .
• Well, it was Nike was the biggest loser on the DOW. .
• Looking at the S&P 500 new high for 2023. .
• Our next mathematical target is 421.88. .
• Then 437.50, which is not only a weekly target, it's also a monthly target, and .
• we'll take a look at that in a few minutes. .
• Before we get to 437.50, we'd have to take .
• out the high from last summer at 431.73. Now, what worked on the S&P 500? .
• Well, the biggest winner in percentage .
• terms was Co America, which was up just under 20 % on the week. .
• But of course, that does not change its overall trend at all. .
• Looking at the triple Qs, a new high for .
• 2023, we've taken up the high from a year ago and now looking to see if we can get .
• up to 343.75. That's our next mathematical target to the upside. .
• Now, the biggest winner on the Nasdaq this .
• week was the chip maker, Marvel, up 13.31 %. .
• And of course, the chip sector was the big winner this week, up 8.63 %. .
• You can see that we traded up getting .
• close to the upper channel line, looking for a close this coming Friday above .
• 196.03 to give us a buy signal for the SPDR Semicondactor ETF. .
• Now looking at the Russell 2000, we're .
• still trading in the channel, trading water here. .
• We were up nearly 2 % on the week, still looking for a close on the IWM above .
• $180.36. And as you can see, we're still trailing along the 175 level. .
• We entered this level about a year ago and .
• have been stuck in a range between 160, 250 at the bottom and $200 at the top. .
• And if you work your way back here, you can see that a year ago we hit the 175 .
• level and basically haven't moved anywhere in a year. .
• So at least we haven't been going down. .
• But obviously it's been hard slog for .
• anything but the big cap tech stocks over the last year. .
• Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we .
• dipped into the channel down a little over half a % on the week. .
• Looking at what worked, Tourmaline was the big winner. .
• It was up 8.47 %. .
• The biggest loser was Barrick, down 7.19 % on the week. .
• Just a couple more weekly charts here. .
• In the US, the biggest winner in percentage terms on the week .
• were the regional banks up 7.81 %, certainly no change in trend. .
• And regional banks do not make up very much in the US market. .
• That's why we watch the semiconductors to .
• see what role they're playing in the US market. .
• In the Canadian market, we saw gold stocks pull back. .
• We talked about Barrick a minute ago. .
• The iShares for the TSX Global Gold Index were down 4.9 % on the week. .
• No weekly sell signal just yet, but lots of daily sell signals. .
• And energy stocks came back, certainly no change in trend on the weekly charts. .
• There are buy signals on some of the daily charts, but in the US, we're up 1.43 %. .
• Now, let's finish off this weekend's .
• presentation taking a look at some long term price target charts. .
• Typically, if you take a look at a monthly .
• chart in our database, it's going to look like this. .
• It's a monthly right side chart, so it's .
• based on the same code algorithms as the daily and weekly Right Side Charts. .
• So that's not an issue. .
• What I've done this weekend is I've .
• actually replaced those with longer term monthly price target charts. .
• So again, this is based on the same .
• formulas for our daily and weekly price targets. .
• Unfortunately, these algorithms take a lot of historical data to work. .
• So I'd say about at least 30, maybe 40 % .
• of the symbols in the database cannot produce these charts. .
• So obviously, the stocks that were the high flyers that were the new stocks .
• during the pandemic, there wouldn't be enough historical data. .
• But when you look at a stock like Shopify or PayPal, you'd think there'd be enough .
• historical data, but unfortunately there isn't. .
• So that's why I don't post these on a regular basis. .
• Now, just as an example, we're looking at .
• the DOW Transport, and you see that we punched through our monthly target of .
• 17,500, and we also dip through our monthly area of support here at 12,500. .
• And why is that? .
• Why didn't these mathematical targets hold the market in check? .
• Well, up at the top, what we were seeing was panic buying. .
• So that's the time and place you look for selling opportunities. .
• Down at the bottom, we saw panic selling. .
• That's the time and place you look for buying opportunities. .
• You're going to see this in a lot of charts, but we do use the mathematical .
• targets to take money off the table or to look for new buying opportunities. .
• Now, right now, we're looking at the SPDR ETF for the S&P 500. .
• Remember, on the daily and weekly charts, .
• our next target, 437.50, was actually two targets away. .
• So we are coming up to another major target for the S&P 500. .
• For the Nasdaq 100, it's 375. .
• That would be our next monthly target. .
• Now, one of the reasons I'm posting these charts this weekend is you can actually go .
• and save these charts to your hard drive if you remember, and keep them for the .
• rest of the year because these numbers are good for years. .
• Obviously, you won't have the updated .
• data, but the actual numbers themselves are good for years from now. .
• Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, you can see we're at 175 .
• right now, closed at 176.10. Our next target is 200, then 225. .
• Still, the market has no interest at the present time of taking those midcap stocks .
• up anywhere near those previous highs unlike the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. .
• Looking at the iShares for the Microcap .
• sector, you can see we're sitting just above $100. .
• If you look here, this is a real easy example of the mathematics of loss. .
• Let's just take... I won't go right up to the top here, but .
• let's just say that we hit 150 and we've come back down to 100. .
• So that's a 33 % loss. .
• Now, to get that money back, you're not looking for a 33 % gain. .
• You're looking for a 50 % gain to go from 100 up to 150. .
• And we'll look at a couple more of those examples in a minute. .
• Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX .
• 60, 31, 25 has been an important number for a long time. .
• We closed at 31, 16 on Friday. .
• So that's our monthly target. .
• If we can take out the highs back in late .
• 2021 and early 2022, then 34, 38 would be our next target. .
• Now, we don't have as wide of coverage of ETFs in the Canadian market. .
• So if we look at the TSX Composite Index itself, you can see that we're up over .
• 20,000 and our next mathematical target is 21,250. .
• Then looking at the TSX 60 itself, we're stuck here at 1,250. .
• If we can take out .
• the highs from back in late 2021, we're looking for a move up to 1375. .
• Now, as we get away from those big cap .
• stocks, when we're looking at small cap or the microcaps in the venture exchange, .
• we're nowhere near going back to those previous highs. .
• Just like in the US, investors in Canada .
• have no interest in those small cap, microcap stocks. .
• Now, over the last year, the market has .
• been led higher by a handful of tech stocks, and some of those tech stocks have .
• come up to their next monthly price targets. .
• So absolutely no guarantee that these .
• price targets are going to hold any stock in check. .
• You can see for Apple, our next monthly price target is $175. .
• You can see back here in late 2021, we did poke our head slightly above it. .
• And if we can take out those highs, then $200 might come into play. .
• But on Friday, we closed at .
• $175.16. We also took some money off the table at the $175 level. .
• Then looking at Meta, $250 is our next price target. .
• We got as high as 248.69 .
• and closed at $245.64. So $250 is our next monthly price target. .
• For Alphabet, it's 125. .
• We got as high as $125.97 before pulling back and closing at $122.76. .
• Then looking at Microsoft, $312.50, we closed above that at 3 1834. .
• Of course, closing above it's not the same .
• as breaking away from it, but that's where we're at at the moment. .
• Then for Netflix, our next monthly target is 375. .
• We got as high as 375.87 before pulling back, closing at 365.36. .
• Then we're looking at NVIDIA at 31250, and we closed on Friday .
• at 312.64. Then Tesla, Tesla is not acting very well over the past couple of months. .
• Tesla dropped from... .
• I'm just going to use the price target, so .
• I'm not going to look at the ultimate high or the ultimate low. .
• But if we went from 375 down to 125, we .
• lost 66 % of its value from that point to this point. .
• To regain that, you don't have to gain 66 .
• %, you actually have to go up 200 % to go from 125 to 375. .
• So that's another example of the mathematics of loss. .
• Of course, if you bought Tesla way back here, you're still fairly happy or not as .
• happy as you were when Tesla was way up here. .
• It all depends on when you got into Tesla, but our next monthly target for Tesla is .
• $187.50. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
• The stock index futures have opened for trading on Sunday night. .
• So far, they're fairly quiet. .
• Stock index futures are slightly below .
• fair value, but there's obviously no big news out over the weekend .
• that has put any level of excitement into Sunday night's futures trading. .
• So we'll just have to wait and see how .
• things work out between now and the open at nine o'clock and 30 Monday morning. .
• The next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .
• We will be posting US stock charts on Monday night. .
• Canadian markets will be closed on Monday. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• And again, next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .
• Stephen Whiteside .