- Good Morning, everyone, and
welcome to Tuesday morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com. .
- In the premarket this morning,
things are fairly quiet. .
- Stock index futures are
slightly below fair value. .
- DOW futures currently down 60 points. .
- So far, it looks like we're going to have
a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning. .
- Now, sometimes markets can be highly .
- correlated, and that means that
they move in sync with each other. .
- The market that we watch the closest for .
- correlation is the correlation
between the S&P 500 and the VIX. .
- We expect if the VIX is going down
that the S&P 500 will be going up. .
- If the VIX is going up, we
expect the S&P 500 to go down. .
- Now, another area of the market that has a
strong correlation is the correlation .
- between the US dollar index and the
stock market and the price of gold. .
- Now, not all correlations,
they're not guaranteed. .
- Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. .
- Now, when we go back to the month of
February, we had a nice big move up in the .
- US dollar index, and we're
seeing the start of that now. .
- The US dollar index has been on a buy
signal for a couple of weeks now. .
- If we can continue to move higher from
here, the last time that we rallied like .
- this, we saw the S&P 500 pull back sharply
through the month of February into March. .
- We also saw the price of
gold pull back as well. .
- Now, so far, the price of gold
has already started to pull back. .
- It's down again in the
premarket this morning. .
- So that correlation is working. .
- What hasn't started yet is the
move down in the stock market. .
- So no guarantee that the US dollar index .
- is going to be able to continue
to move higher from here. .
- But if it does, we may see a negative .
- effect on the stock market and a continued
negative effect on the price of gold. .
- Now, the VIX traded in the channel on
Monday, a close above 1807 would give us a .
- buy signal, and we would expect
that to be negative for stocks. .
- Now, once again, it was technology
stocks leading the market higher. .
- I didn't notice it that much on the
Nasdaq 100, up just a third of a %. .
- It was more visible looking at the chip
sector with the stocks .
- trading higher and the spider,
Semicondactor ETF up over 1 % on the day. .
- Looking at the S&P 500, we
barely moved yesterday. .
- Our next mathematical target on the SPY is
421.88. On the index itself, it's .
- 421.75. What the market is really
watching right now is not that number. .
- They're watching the big round number of
4200 or 420 on the SPY. .
- The market is having trouble
with that level at the moment. .
- If it can punch through it, and we got .
- pretty close to it yesterday,
we can get up to 4,218. .
- 75 on Tuesday. .
- Looking at the DOW Diamonds, we traded
down into the channel, dipped below the .
- lower channel line but
did not close there. .
- On Tuesday, we're looking for a close .
- below 332.32 to give us a new
sell signal for the DOW Diamonds. .
- Now, Nike continued to lead the DOW lower .
- yesterday, but we also saw
Walgreen Boots put in a new low. .
- Now, this was an interesting move. .
- We're looking for support at 31.25.
The high of the day was actually 31.27, .
- and we closed at 3,1.19. So the stock is
really trying to hold on to that 31.25 .
- level, even though we made a new low
yesterday intraday. .
- We, of course, care about where things .
- close and it closed right up at that
level of the 31.25 area of support. .
- Now, the Canadian market
didn't trade on Monday. .
- On Friday, we traded up .
- closing just above the lower channel line
looking for a close on Tuesday above .
- 31.36. Now, US bank
stocks were up yesterday. .
- Canadian bank stocks
pulled back on Friday. .
- Canadian banks start reporting earnings .
- this week, so that could add to the
volatility in the banking sector. .
- On Friday, Canadian energy stocks
ended the week on a buy signal. .
- On Monday, we saw a small pullback in US
energy stocks down less than half a %. .
- Still waiting for a buy signal
for this sector in the US. .
- Looking at gold stocks on the TSX, they .
- traded up on Friday, filling the open
gap and then closing higher on the day. .
- On Monday, we saw the GDX pull
back, having an inside day. .
- So a day of indecision for gold
stocks in the US on Monday. .
- Let's finish off today's
presentation looking at commodities. .
- The price of copper is
trying to hold support here. .
- It's been on a sell signal
for a few weeks now. .
- Then we had an inside day for the GLD
and the SLV and the USO on Monday. .
- So no change in trend for gold or silver. .
- And the price of crude oil is still
on a buy signal here treading water. .
- We need a close on Tuesday below 62.99
to give us a sell signal for the USO. .
- Looking at gasoline, new high
for this move on Monday. .
- And then looking at the natural gas, big .
- pullback on Monday, trading back
down to the upper channel line. .
- Looking for a close on Tuesday below .
- $6.71. Okay, folks, that is all
for this morning's presentation. .
- So far, it looks like we're going to see
a quiet open at 9:30 Tuesday morning. .
- Have a great day. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Wednesday morning. .