- Hey, good morning everyone and
welcome to Friday Morning. .
- It's Stephen Whiteside here from the .
- uptrend.com in the pre market this morning
stock index futures are above fair value. .
- So we are looking for a little buying
at the open on Friday morning. .
- Now yesterday was a very bad day for the .
- stock market and we'll start
off with a couple of charts. .
- US dollar index kept
moving higher yesterday. .
- At the same time bond yields continue to .
- rise across the spectrum
from five year to 30 year. .
- They all moved up on Thursday. .
- Now Thursday was a bad day for the stock .
- market even though the
headline might not tell you. .
- So we are coming up to a
three day long weekend. .
- We are coming up to month end. .
- Both have a bullish bias.
Seasonally. .
- This is also a good time
to be in the stock market. .
- You can see seasonally, we usually get a .
- rally into the first week of June and
then a pullback into the end of June. .
- And of course the end of June is the end .
- of the quarter and then
we get the summer rally. .
- That's historically what happens. .
- So seeing some buying coming into Friday .
- morning before a long
weekend, not that unexpected. .
- Of course we do have the debt ceiling
negotiations hanging over our heads and .
- that could actually crash the stock
market if things do not work out. .
- Now while most of the stock market was .
- going down on Thursday, nvidia was leading
the tech stocks higher once again. .
- And of course this is one of those big cap .
- tech stocks that has been keeping
the market afloat in 2023. .
- And so yesterday we came in already at the .
- top of the panic zones and so we
saw a panic buying yesterday. .
- A lot of that was probably short covering. .
- I think they had over $9 billion worth of
Nvidia stock shorted going into yesterday. .
- And if you were short Nvidia for some .
- strange reason, I have no idea
why you would be short Nvidia. .
- Apparently some people think
the stock is overvalued. .
- Well if it was overvalued on Wednesday
then it is certainly overvalued today. .
- And so here we are making
a new high for Nvidia. .
- Where did we get to? .
- Well, if we look at the weekly chart
from last Friday, we knew that 343. .
- 75 is where the stock topped out in 2021 .
- and then above that was
375 on the monthly chart. .
- Our next price target was 375. .
- We were stuck at 312 50. .
- We got to lock in profits there
and then we popped yesterday. .
- So if you had an order in at 343. .
- 75 or 375, they both got filled
at the open which was up at 385. .
- 23. .
- So congratulations to anyone who locked
in some profits yesterday on Nvidia. .
- I would be a seller of Nvidia if we .
- started to break down
below yesterday's low. .
- Obviously our lower channel line is
currently at 301.76 and you don't want to .
- give up all of those profits
if we're up over 375. .
- So yesterday's low was 366.
35. .
- I would liquidate the remainder of my .
- position if Nvidia started trading below
that level over the next few days. .
- Then looking at the VIX, the VIX pulled .
- back yesterday looking for a
close on Friday below 17.07. .
- Then looking at the Dow, we
made a new low yesterday. .
- We made a new low for the TSX. .
- The S&P 500 came back. .
- Now we had a sell signal
from Wednesday's close. .
- You come in on Thursday morning,
you see we're going to open at 414. .
- 74.
So you can wave off that sell signal. .
- Or if you took the sell signal,
you got to sell at a higher level. .
- So congratulations there. .
- And then of course, the Nasdaq
made a new high yesterday. .
- We saw a big move up for semiconductors. .
- Of course Nvidia being a semiconductor. .
- Now the rest of the market, well, looking .
- at Canadian small caps, they've started
to break down below the March lows. .
- We've got micro caps moving
down yesterday in the US. .
- Mid cap stocks are sitting right
at the lower channel line. .
- So any lower close on Friday would give us
a sell signal for the Ishares for the .
- Russell 2000 and the Ishares
for the microcap sector. .
- We are back on a sell signal
as of Thursday's close now. .
- Big move down yesterday
for Consumer staples. .
- Retail stocks trading
below the March lows. .
- Big down day yesterday for Healthcare. .
- Biotechs back on a sell signal
as of Thursday's close. .
- Big down day for pharmaceuticals. .
- Then we had materials, metals
and mining making new lows. .
- Utilities, big down day for utilities. .
- So you can see that a lot of the market .
- was heading in the opposite
direction of Nvidia. .
- Then looking at the Canadian market, of .
- course it was all about
financials and bank stocks. .
- We had bank earnings out all this week and .
- that's put downward pressure
on the financial sector. .
- Then energy stocks pulled back
yesterday, still on a buy signal. .
- That would change on Friday for
the index with a closed blow 223. .
- 16. .
- Then looking at gold stocks,
they continued to move lower. .
- So did global mining stocks
and material stocks. .
- All made new lows yesterday. .
- We saw a new closing low yesterday
for Canadian real estate. .
- Then we got telecom stocks down 1.77%.
Big down day for the telecom sector. .
- And then last up we had utilities
making a new low for this move. .
- Let's finish off today's presentation
taking a look at commodity prices and .
- copper held the previous
day's low yesterday. .
- I'd get more excited if we closed
above the previous day's high. .
- There's the price of
gold making a new low. .
- The price of silver making a new low. .
- Crude oil pulled back into the channel. .
- A close below 69. .
- 56 on Friday would give us a sell signal. .
- And there's natural gas coming right back .
- down and sitting on the
lower channel line. .
- So any lower close on Friday
would give us a new sell signal. .
- Okay, folks, that is all
for today's presentation. .
- Looking for a higher open on Friday. .
- Going into a three day long weekend.
US. .
- Markets will be closed on Monday. .
- Canadian markets will be open on Monday,
but we're not going to post any charts. .
- Whatever happens to the Canadian market on
Monday is kind of irrelevant since there's .
- not going to be any adult
supervision from the US. .
- Market. .
- And we'll find volumes down
probably about 40% on Monday. .
- Enjoy the rest of the day. .
- Next time you'll hear
my voice is on Sunday. .