Hello, everyone. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from .
theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. .
Let's start off with some housekeeping. .
Us markets will be closed tomorrow and so will the uptrend. .
Yes, Canadian markets will be open, but the volume will be down about 50 % or so. .
And without any adult supervision from the commodity markets, there isn't going to be .
a lot of volatility in the Canadian market on Monday. .
So we'll be back with a video on Tuesday .
morning and charts again on Tuesday evening. .
Now, this is a three day long weekend. .
We saw some buying going into the end of the week. .
We are also coming up to month end, and so .
we expect the market to have a bullish bias coming into month end. .
But this year is a little different. .
This month is a little different with the debt ceiling crisis going on in the US. .
Yeah, they made some progress, but it's minor. .
It's one thing to get an agreement with the White House. .
It's another thing to get it through .
Congress and then get it through the Senate. .
So we'll just have to see how that turns out. .
Looking at the VIX, the VIX had a wild .
week, ended the week slightly higher, still on a weekly sell signal. .
That's supportive for higher stock prices on a long term basis. .
Looking for a close this coming Friday above .
$20.94. On a daily basis, we've had the VIX on a buy signal for the last four .
days, and so we did see some downward pressure during the week for some of the .
areas of the market outside of the chip sector. .
We're looking for a close on Tuesday below $17.21 to give us a sell signal, and that, .
of course, would be supportive for higher stock prices. .
Looking at weekly charts, the TSX pulled .
back 2.17 % on the week and is back on a weekly sell signal. .
The DOW Diamonds did trade through the .
lower channel line but then ended the week back in the channel, down 1 % on the week. .
The S&P 500 closed up a third on the week while the Nasdaq was up 3.53 .
%, being led higher by the chip sector, which was up 8.68 % on the week. .
Now, the big story this week, of course, is AI stocks. .
And we had NVIDIA lead the market higher. .
We've been involved in AI stocks all year. .
We've been talking about how technology has been leading the market higher. .
This is the time and place where we see a .
lot of magazine covers talking about the AI story. .
And this is probably the time and place where the market will reverse. .
I certainly wouldn't encourage anybody to .
jump in chasing AI stocks at this particular time. .
We'd wait for a pullback before we'd get excited. .
Year to date, looking at the US market, .
it's semiconductors followed by information technology, followed by .
communication services, and then the Nasdaq 100, and then the Nasdaq. .
If you're involved in any ETF or mutual .
fund that tracks the Nasdaq, you've been involved in AI stocks all year. .
If you follow any of the technology stocks .
that we cover in our daily videos, then you've been involved in AI stocks as well. .
When we look at a heat map year to date, you can see the big cap stocks that have .
been leading the market higher, and they're all basically AI related. .
So this is the topic we've been talking about all year. .
Now, there are some exchange traded funds. .
We have three in the database. .
There are some more. .
I'm going to look at a couple more, but some of them are very thinly traded. .
My favorite is bots BOTZ. .
It covers 43 global stocks. .
It's performed really well in 2023. .
Then we've got ROBO, which is more to do .
with robotics and industrial applications of AI. .
It's done very well as well. .
Then we've got the Cathie Wood's AI ETF, which is dragging its feet here. .
It is heavily invested in Tesla and it is invested in a lot of things that are .
further away from what you and I would see. .
Stuff in the background that we wouldn't see as consumers. .
It'll probably do well over the long term, but I'm not a big fan of anything Cathie .
Woods does, so it's not one that I would be looking at myself. .
Now, I was just looking at a Forbes .
article talked about the 12 best artificial intelligence stocks to buy in .
2023, and some of them we've been following all year. .
Adobe is not one that I follow on a regular basis. .
It had a big pop this week, probably on the back of NVIDIA's big up move. .
And then, of course, we've been following Alphabet for a long time. .
I switched out of following Alphabet .
myself in my personal portfolio and switched over to Amazon. .
And so far, that hasn't worked out too well. .
But then I make money either if the stock goes up or the stock goes down. .
I really don't care about how far up it .
goes, but Amazon is going up with Alphabet at the same time. .
Then Bidu, not one that I follow. .
It's on a weekly sell signal right now. .
They're all weekly charts that we're looking at right now. .
Then C3AI had a big pop, second week of a buy signal. .
Then we're looking at IBM, and of course, the world has heard about Watson. .
Watson is not something that you and I as .
consumers can get too close to, but corporations can. .
And we're sitting right on the edge of a new weekly buy signal for IBM. .
Now, IBM is really a consulting company .
far more than it's a hardware or software company. .
So the fact that it has Watson .
isn't going to do too much to the bottom line, I don't think. .
Then Micron, so we're back to hardware here, memory and storage. .
Then we've got Microsoft, which is right .
on the front end of consumer use of AI, and it has done really well in 2023. .
Then, of course, NVIDIA making chips for the data centers for artificial .
intelligence and having that big pop this week. .
It ran up to our next weekly and monthly price target and stopped last week and .
then just punched right through the next two weekly targets. .
Then looking at Oracle, Oracle trading back up to the highs from 2021. .
Then we've got Palantir, third week of a buy signal for Palantir. .
Then last up, we've got Tesla. .
Tesla is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close. .
Now, looking at the seasonality of the .
Nasdaq, you can see that coming into the first week of June is very bullish. .
Then in June, we usually get a pullback, .
and then the summer rally starts at the end of June. .
That's historically what happens. .
We'll have to see what happens this year, .
but of course, if you want to get involved in any of the AI stocks, I would certainly .
wait for a pullback before I would jump in with both feet. .
Let's finish off this weekend's .
presentation looking at commodities and starting off with copper. .
Copper came off of its lows, still closed down 1.3,4 % on the week. .
So that put pressure on global mining .
stocks, as did the price of gold, which is back on a sell signal. .
And the price of silver is also back on a weekly sell signal as of Friday's close. .
Now looking at the stocks themselves, US .
gold miners are back on a sell signal as are Canadian gold miners joining silver .
miners on their second week of a sell signal. .
Looking at energy, starting with crude oil. .
Crude oil closed up 1.81 % on the week, .
closing in the channel, looking for a close above $75.13 this coming Friday. .
Then looking at natural gas, it was down .
over 10 %, still holding the recent lows, still, of course, on a weekly sell signal. .
That would change this week if natural gas .
could close above $2.84. Then looking at the stocks, .
Canadian energy stocks were down 0.82 % while US energy stocks were down just over .
1 %, so no joy for the energy sector this week. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
Stock Index futures have started trading Sunday night. .
They're up about 0.4 %, so DOW is up 120 points at the moment. .
Not an overreaction to the debt ceiling negotiations. .
We'll just have to see how that works out. .
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .