- Good Morning, everyone, and
welcome to Tuesday morning. .
- It's Stphen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com. .
- In the premarket this morning, stock index .
- futures are mixed, but once again, it's
the Nasdaq leading the market higher, S&P .
- 500 following behind while the DOW is
slightly lower and the TSX is also .
- slightly lower in the
premarket on Tuesday morning. .
- Well, yesterday the
Canadian market was open. .
- I didn't post any charts or anything. .
- I made these by hand this morning. .
- I don't care what happens in the Canadian
market when the US market is closed. .
- There's no adult supervision and
it's usually very thinly traded. .
- So I'm not going to make any decisions .
- based on anything that happened
in the Canadian market on Monday. .
- The TSX closed up 47 points. .
- The TSX 60 closed up $2.13. The TSX 60 is .
- actually trading down $1.30 in
the premarket this morning. .
- Technically on Bay Street, when the US
markets are closed, it's .
- usually a golf day, and it was
certainly a golf day yesterday. .
- If you look at the volume for the ishares .
- for the TSX 60, you can see last week they
were up around 4 million shares a day. .
- Yesterday was 177,000. .
- Usually I tell people you're going to
see 40 %, 50 % reduction in volume. .
- Yesterday was much worse than
what I would usually expect. .
- Again, I don't make any decisions based on .
- anything that happened in the Canadian
market when the US market is closed. .
- Now, we are coming up to month end. .
- That's usually bullish for the market. .
- If the market is not in a bullish mood, it .
- will at least dampen some of the
negative pressure on the market. .
- Now, seasonally, we've looked at this .
- chart a few times, but coming
into June is usually bullish. .
- We usually get a top
the first week in June and then a .
- pullback, and off that pullback,
you get the summer rally. .
- That's historically what
happens on average. .
- Of course, average doesn't mean exactly .
- what's going to happen, but that's what
the market is expecting to happen. .
- Now, one thing that could throw the .
- seasonalities off this year
is the debt ceiling debate. .
- Yes, they have made some progress, but
they haven't got it through Congress just .
- yet, so we'll have to wait and see how the
market reacts to whatever happens next. .
- Of course, this morning is still all about .
- NVIDIA, which is popped in
the premarket this morning. .
- It's trading up over $400 and taking a .
- bunch of the other AI stocks
and related companies with it. .
- I thought I'd throw in a
life lesson this morning. .
- I've always told people to follow
the money and ignore the news. .
- One topic that I've been following
closely is what's going on in Argentina. .
- I have some previous employees
who live in Argentina. .
- They are Argentinian .
- and I'm in contact with them all the time,
and they're having a hell of a time. .
- You can see the headline on this .
- particular video, Argentina on the brink
of collapse as inflation hits 109 %, .
- interest rates are up near 100 %,
it's pretty ugly down there. .
- And so when .
- you're reading the news or listening to
the news and hearing what's going on, you .
- would automatically, I think, assume that
the stock market would not be doing well, .
- but the stock market is actually
hitting all time highs at the moment. .
- So don't try to line up the news with what
is actually going on in the market, it's .
- more important to follow what's going
on in the market and not the news. .
- Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal, so
there's still some tension in the market .
- and outside of NVIDIA and
the big cap tech stocks. .
- The rest of the market isn't
doing that well at the moment. .
- Tuesday, we're looking for a close on the
VIX below 17.21 to .
- tell us the market wants to get
more bullish going into month end. .
- Now, the US dollar index
is still in an uptrend. .
- We know that that can be negative for
gold and negative for the stock market. .
- And for some of the stock
market, it certainly is. .
- Bonds are still on a sell signal. .
- I watched the 30 year bond,
the futures contract. .
- A lot of the market watches
the TLT or in Canada, the XBB. .
- Now, of course, falling bond prices puts
upward pressure on bond yields, and that, .
- of course, helps the Fed accomplish
what they want to get done. .
- Then looking at crude oil, we had an
inside day on Friday, still on a buy .
- signal unlike natural gas, which has
rolled over back on a sell signal. .
- Then looking at energy stocks, just
trading water here both .
- in Canada and the US, we're both still
on buy signals but not going anywhere. .
- Then the Nasdaq made a new high on Friday. .
- We saw chip stocks continue to move higher
on Friday, and you can see we're up .
- trading back at the highs
that we saw back in February. .
- Everybody's watching NVIDIA. .
- I watch AMD. .
- It's a stock that I trade,
either long or short. .
- Then looking at the rest of the market,
looking at midcaps and the iShares Russell .
- 2000 or the iShares Microcap
for those little stocks. .
- They're not going anywhere right now. .
- It's still all about the
big cap tech stocks. .
- You can see that in the regional banks, .
- they're just treading water
here on a buy signal. .
- If we can move up 10, 12 % from here,
we'd get up into the Flypaper channel. .
- To get there, we'd have to get
through the 50 day moving average. .
- And so far, we have not
been able to do that. .
- That is also true for
the big banks in the US. .
- It's also true for the broker
dealers and the insurance company. .
- So nothing really going on
in the rest of the market. .
- Then looking at Canadian
financials, we're on a sell signal. .
- We moved up on Friday, we
moved up a little yesterday. .
- That's also true for Canadian
banks, still on a sell signal here. .
- Making a new low on Thursday, and there's .
- the Royal Bank making
a new low on Thursday. .
- This is a pretty ugly chart. .
- You can see we recently put in a lower .
- high, and now we're
putting in a lower low. .
- We should have found support at the 124 .
- level, which acted as support previously,
but unfortunately it broke down this time. .
- So that's a pretty negative chart for the
biggest bank in Canada, and that might not .
- be a good sign for the
markets going forward. .
- Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation. .
- We do have the Nasdaq leading
the markets higher this morning. .
- We've got the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 up .
- nicely while the DAO and the TSX are
trading slightly lower on Tuesday morning. .
- For the Canadian market, we've got crude .
- oil and natural gas down slightly
while gold is up $16 this morning. .
- So we may see some money go back
into the mining sector on Tuesday. .
- Now, I've been trying
to get people to donate blood for the last .
- 10 years, and today we're going to
start rewarding people for doing so. .
- So check your email later today and you'll .
- see the new program that we're rolling out
to thank people for those people who've .
- taken up the cause and have donated
blood over the last 10 years. .
- Again, that's all for this
morning's presentation. .
- Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Wednesday morning. .