- Good morning everyone
and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
- It's Stephen White side
here from the uptrend.com. .
- In the premarket this morning, stock
index futures are down across the board. .
- So far it looks like we're going to see
a little selling on the last day of May. .
- Now we do realize that automatic
money is hitting the market. .
- The market also realizes that. .
- So while we can see a bullish bias at
month end, if the market wants to go .
- lower, that bullish bias can help
dampen any downward pressure. .
- We're still dealing with the debt
ceiling that has not been resolved yet. .
- Now, yesterday looks like a market top. .
- We saw some bearish reversal signals and .
- some significant symbols
such as the semiconductors. .
- We saw NVIDIA pulled back
after making a new high. .
- Broadcom had a big update yesterday and .
- then reversed going into the
close, closing lower on the day. .
- So a big bearish reversal day
for Broadcom, Microsoft, Meta. .
- These stocks all had bearish reversal days .
- on Tuesday, and that may mark the
top for this move in the market. .
- We'll just have to wait and see. .
- Now, the Nasdaq is nowhere near a sell .
- signal coming into
Wednesday's trading action. .
- Our next mathematical target was
359.38. Couldn't get there yesterday. .
- That doesn't mean that we can't get there. .
- It's just we didn't get there on Tuesday. .
- There's the S&P 500. .
- It did hit our next target before pulling
back at 421.88. Closed at 421.18, a lot of .
- people are looking to see if the market
can move out above and hold above 420. .
- Now, we're often talking about the fact
that the S&P 500 is market cap weighted, .
- and that's why we watch the big cap stocks
the most to see where they're going .
- because they'll pull or push
the rest of the market. .
- So we know that Apple is a much more .
- significant waiting and a much more
significant company in the S&P 500 than, .
- say, UPS, even though it's
a household name or visa. .
- These stocks are much smaller when you
look at them based on market cap than .
- Apple or Microsoft or Google or Amazon or
Tesla, which are much bigger companies. .
- Now, if we looked at the S&P 500 equally
weighted, so every stock in the S&P 500 .
- was given equal representation, the
market would look much different. .
- So this is how it looks
when it's market cap weighted. .
- This is how it looks when
it's equally weighted. .
- And as you can see, when you put all the .
- S&P 500 stocks side by side, the market
isn't doing very well at the moment. .
- Now, when we look at the percentage of
stocks currently trading above their 20 .
- day moving average,
what's really spooky is the fact that even .
- though the Nasdaq is hitting new highs
right now, only 52.47 % of the Nasdaq 100 .
- % and 51.51 % of the Nasdaq itself
are above their 20 day moving average. .
- We can see that the TSX is weakest. .
- We're seeing a lot of pressure on the TSX .
- with banks having issues at the moment,
and we've got gold stocks down sharply. .
- So that's certainly putting
pressure on the TSX. .
- The DAO 30, only a third of the stocks in .
- the DOW 30 are above their
20 day moving average. .
- So it's really spooky, the fact that the
Nasdaq is hitting new highs and only 52 % .
- of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading
above their 20 day moving average. .
- Well, what worked and what
didn't work yesterday? .
- Well, on the S&P 500, it
was consumer discretionary. .
- It was the big winner followed
by technology stocks. .
- And as you can see, we had the big
pullback going into the close. .
- And then real estate, those
were the big winners. .
- The big losers were consumer staples. .
- Energy, which rolled over yesterday
on both sides of the border. .
- And then health care stocks
made a new low for this move. .
- Looking at the Canadian market, we
were down across the board yesterday. .
- So it was energy stocks were the big .
- losers in percentage terms, followed by
materials making a new low for this move. .
- And then we saw health care pull back. .
- Then looking at gold stocks,
they made a new low yesterday. .
- Financials were down a little over 1 %. .
- Banks were down over 1 %. .
- And when we look at the banks, we've got
Bank of Montreal still on a sell signal. .
- We've got Bank of Nova Scotia
trading in the channel yesterday. .
- A close below 66.10 on Wednesday
would give us a sell signal. .
- Then looking at CIBC, we're looking for a .
- close below 56.21. No change
in trend for the National. .
- It reported earnings this morning, so .
- we'll have to see how the
market reacts to that. .
- Then the Royal Bank, no
change in trend there. .
- A new low for this move for the TD Bank,
still on a sell signal, no change there. .
- Let's finish off this morning's .
- presentation with a quick
look at commodities. .
- And there's crude oil rolling over
yesterday back on a sell signal. .
- Down again in the pre market this morning,
that's also true for natural gas, still on .
- a sell signal, looking to see
if the recent lows will hold. .
- Then looking at copper, copper moved up
into the channel yesterday, pulled back .
- going into the close,
closing lower on the day. .
- Now we had a reversal for gold. .
- It's still trading below the lower
channel line, so no change there. .
- It's up 40 cents in the pre market
last time I checked this morning. .
- Silver had a bullish
reversal day on Monday. .
- Little pullback yesterday, still
trading below the lower channel line. .
- And then let's finish off with lumber. .
- Of course, a couple of years ago, lumber .
- was screaming, and now it's
been screaming to the downside. .
- So no change in trend for lumber. .
- Bacon prices should be
getting lower right now. .
- We're seeing live hogs down at the very
bottom of the chart at the moment. .
- And then hamburger meat, on the other
hand, should be getting expensive going .
- into barbecue season,
so that is unfortunate. .
- Okay, that's all for this
morning's presentation. .
- Looking for some selling at
the open on Wednesday morning. .
- Have a great day. .
- Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Thursday morning. .