Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
It's Stephen White side here from the uptrend.com. .
In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. .
So far it looks like we're going to see a little selling on the last day of May. .
Now we do realize that automatic money is hitting the market. .
The market also realizes that. .
So while we can see a bullish bias at month end, if the market wants to go .
lower, that bullish bias can help dampen any downward pressure. .
We're still dealing with the debt ceiling that has not been resolved yet. .
Now, yesterday looks like a market top. .
We saw some bearish reversal signals and .
some significant symbols such as the semiconductors. .
We saw NVIDIA pulled back after making a new high. .
Broadcom had a big update yesterday and .
then reversed going into the close, closing lower on the day. .
So a big bearish reversal day for Broadcom, Microsoft, Meta. .
These stocks all had bearish reversal days .
on Tuesday, and that may mark the top for this move in the market. .
We'll just have to wait and see. .
Now, the Nasdaq is nowhere near a sell .
signal coming into Wednesday's trading action. .
Our next mathematical target was 359.38. Couldn't get there yesterday. .
That doesn't mean that we can't get there. .
It's just we didn't get there on Tuesday. .
There's the S&P 500. .
It did hit our next target before pulling back at 421.88. Closed at 421.18, a lot of .
people are looking to see if the market can move out above and hold above 420. .
Now, we're often talking about the fact that the S&P 500 is market cap weighted, .
and that's why we watch the big cap stocks the most to see where they're going .
because they'll pull or push the rest of the market. .
So we know that Apple is a much more .
significant waiting and a much more significant company in the S&P 500 than, .
say, UPS, even though it's a household name or visa. .
These stocks are much smaller when you look at them based on market cap than .
Apple or Microsoft or Google or Amazon or Tesla, which are much bigger companies. .
Now, if we looked at the S&P 500 equally weighted, so every stock in the S&P 500 .
was given equal representation, the market would look much different. .
So this is how it looks when it's market cap weighted. .
This is how it looks when it's equally weighted. .
And as you can see, when you put all the .
S&P 500 stocks side by side, the market isn't doing very well at the moment. .
Now, when we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20 .
day moving average, what's really spooky is the fact that even .
though the Nasdaq is hitting new highs right now, only 52.47 % of the Nasdaq 100 .
% and 51.51 % of the Nasdaq itself are above their 20 day moving average. .
We can see that the TSX is weakest. .
We're seeing a lot of pressure on the TSX .
with banks having issues at the moment, and we've got gold stocks down sharply. .
So that's certainly putting pressure on the TSX. .
The DAO 30, only a third of the stocks in .
the DOW 30 are above their 20 day moving average. .
So it's really spooky, the fact that the Nasdaq is hitting new highs and only 52 % .
of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 20 day moving average. .
Well, what worked and what didn't work yesterday? .
Well, on the S&P 500, it was consumer discretionary. .
It was the big winner followed by technology stocks. .
And as you can see, we had the big pullback going into the close. .
And then real estate, those were the big winners. .
The big losers were consumer staples. .
Energy, which rolled over yesterday on both sides of the border. .
And then health care stocks made a new low for this move. .
Looking at the Canadian market, we were down across the board yesterday. .
So it was energy stocks were the big .
losers in percentage terms, followed by materials making a new low for this move. .
And then we saw health care pull back. .
Then looking at gold stocks, they made a new low yesterday. .
Financials were down a little over 1 %. .
Banks were down over 1 %. .
And when we look at the banks, we've got Bank of Montreal still on a sell signal. .
We've got Bank of Nova Scotia trading in the channel yesterday. .
A close below 66.10 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal. .
Then looking at CIBC, we're looking for a .
close below 56.21. No change in trend for the National. .
It reported earnings this morning, so .
we'll have to see how the market reacts to that. .
Then the Royal Bank, no change in trend there. .
A new low for this move for the TD Bank, still on a sell signal, no change there. .
Let's finish off this morning's .
presentation with a quick look at commodities. .
And there's crude oil rolling over yesterday back on a sell signal. .
Down again in the pre market this morning, that's also true for natural gas, still on .
a sell signal, looking to see if the recent lows will hold. .
Then looking at copper, copper moved up into the channel yesterday, pulled back .
going into the close, closing lower on the day. .
Now we had a reversal for gold. .
It's still trading below the lower channel line, so no change there. .
It's up 40 cents in the pre market last time I checked this morning. .
Silver had a bullish reversal day on Monday. .
Little pullback yesterday, still trading below the lower channel line. .
And then let's finish off with lumber. .
Of course, a couple of years ago, lumber .
was screaming, and now it's been screaming to the downside. .
So no change in trend for lumber. .
Bacon prices should be getting lower right now. .
We're seeing live hogs down at the very bottom of the chart at the moment. .
And then hamburger meat, on the other hand, should be getting expensive going .
into barbecue season, so that is unfortunate. .
Okay, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
Looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning. .
Have a great day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .