• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are very quiet. .
• DOWfutures currently unchanged while the .
• Nasdaq is slightly higher in the premarket on Thursday morning. .
• Let's start off this morning's presentation doing a recap of the month of .
• May, and we can start off looking at the S&P 500. .
• Nothing new here. .
• All the big cap tech stocks were the winners for the month of May, and you can .
• see the majority of the S&P 500 actually closed lower for the month. .
• T hat's a problem we've been dealing with for a while now. .
• There's the DOW pulling back into the channel down 3.38 %. .
• S&p 500 closed up just under half a % and is back on a monthly buy signal. .
• Joining the Nasdaq, which was up nearly 8 % on the month. .
• Then looking at the Sox or the chip sector, which has been on a buy signal for .
• six months now, was up 14.3 % for the month. .
• Looking at the Canadian market, and this .
• chart isn't as helpful, this particular heat map is not based on the month of .
• May's trading, but the trading for the last 30 days. .
• You can see the tech stocks where the winners over here. .
• You can see that one bank actually .
• is positive, but that's based on 30 days for the month of May. .
• It was actually down on the month, so .
• not as much fun in the Canadian market, which was down. .
• The I shares for the TSX 60 were down .
• 5.32 % for the month, still on a monthly buy signal, so no change in trend there. .
• Now, we've been quite concerned about banks in the financial sector in 2023. .
• US Bank stocks were down just a tick under 7 % for the month. .
• Regional banks continue to move lower, down 8.65 %. .
• So they're not getting as much media .
• attention, but they're continuing to move lower. .
• Canadian financials were down 5.37 % while .
• Canadian banks were down 6.45 % for the month. .
• So in both cases, still on monthly sell signals. .
• Now, what worked well in the US on the S&P 500, it was NVIDIA, which was up 36.34 %. .
• What didn't work on the S&P 500 was Advanced Auto Parts. .
• It's been on a monthly sell signal for a while now, down .
• 41.93 % and actually just right down at the lows from back in early 2020. .
• What worked in Canada? .
• Well, it's hard to notice on the chart, but we do have BlackBerry back on a .
• monthly buy signal up 38.07 % for the month. .
• The big loser, Canopy Growth, which was down 35.43 %. .
• The TSX is decommissioning the Canadian Cannabis Index. .
• You can still, of course, trade the ETFs. .
• You've got the Horizons Marijuana Life ETF, which was down 9.94 % for the month. .
• And then in the US, Alternative Harvest, which was down 9.34 % for the month. .
• Now, if you're following marijuana stocks .
• and you're still looking to play them on the long side, you really need to just .
• narrow your focus quite a bit in your expectations. .
• We should have found support at the $10 .
• level, and we're now trading at $3.10. So that area of support has broken. .
• You need to just eliminate all this previous trading action. .
• This market is probably never going to come back into that range. .
• If we look at the weekly fly paper channel, you can see that we're coming .
• down to the $7 level, and that's really your trading range. .
• So if you're looking up in any of these charts, and if they do start to turn .
• around and you do start to get buy signals, the stuff over at the left is .
• just a dream that will never happen again for this particular sector. .
• The sector is probably just going to get .
• eaten up by drug companies, and you'll never have to worry about how the highs .
• from 2020, 2021, those will never come back into play. .
• Looking at gold, gold was down over .
• $35 for the month, still on a monthly buy signal, no change there. .
• Crude oil was down .
• 9.14 % for the month, still on a monthly sell signal, no change there. .
• Now, moving from monthly charts to daily .
• charts, of course, we're still waiting to see if the debt ceiling can get resolved. .
• In the news this morning, we've got Salesforce out with earnings. .
• Now, Salesforce is still on a buy signal here, making a new high yesterday. .
• Looking for a close on Thursday below .
• 208.60. So far, we were trading down not as low as 208. .
• 60. We're trading down to 21106. .
• Last time I checked, of course, that .
• number is going to be different when you check out Salesforce in the premarket. .
• Our next price target was 225. .
• We hit that yesterday. .
• So chitchat, ng, congratulations. .
• You got to lock in some profits at 225 before the pullback. .
• Now, I always like to look at the midterm .
• chart to see if there's any difference between the right side and the midterm. .
• Right now, they are very close together. .
• So we'll have to see how Salesforce makes out on Thursday. .
• Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a .
• buy signal that's supportive for lower stock prices. .
• If we get a close below 1728, that would open up the market to go higher from here. .
• Looking at the US dollar index, we made a new high for this move. .
• At the same time, bond prices moved up nicely again on Wednesday, giving us a buy .
• signal for the 30 year bond and a sell signal for bond yields. .
• Then looking at the price of gold, gold .
• moved up yesterday, looking for a close above .
• $2,002.90. That would give us a new buy signal on Thursday. .
• Gold stocks moved up on both sides of the .
• border, but not enough to give us a buy signal. .
• Then we saw crude oil move down yesterday, 1.88 % for the day and energy stocks also .
• moved down over 2 % on the TSX, 1.76 % on the S&P 500. .
• Then looking at the iS shares for the TSX 60, new low for this move on Wednesday. .
• Looking at the DAO, the DAO closed .
• slightly lower yesterday, still on a sell signal. .
• S&P 500 pulled back to the upper channel .
• line for the SPY, we're looking for a close below 413.92 on Thursday. .
• Then we've got the QQQ's still up in the .
• sky well away from any potential sell signal on Thursday. .
• Then looking at the chip sector, you can .
• see the big reversal that we had and we did make a new high. .
• We did run up and tag 212.50. So .
• if you had an order in up there, that got filled. .
• And of course, if we look back, you can .
• see we previously peaked back at the 212.50 level a few months ago. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation looking at a stock that came up .
• during a one on one tutorial on Wednesday, and that's Ambarella. .
• It collapsed yesterday but did not give us a sell signal. .
• So we're looking for a close below $70.57. .
• And you can see that it actually opened below that level yesterday and traded .
• below that but did not close below that level. .
• It closed at 72.32. So even though it was .
• a big down day, not enough to give us a sell signal. .
• Now, if we go back to when this trade started, and of course, it's the first .
• close above the upper channel line, gives you a buy signal. .
• And then we're looking for the first close .
• below the lower channel line to totally kick us out of a trade. .
• Now, while we're waiting to be kicked out, .
• we want to try to take some money off the table. .
• 68.75 would have been far too close to use as a price target. .
• So then you look up $75 and 81.25, those would have been your next two targets. .
• That would be your playing field. .
• $75, is that a legitimate target? .
• Well, there's lots of support over here. .
• And so, yeah, that's a legitimate target. .
• So you would have put an order in to sell .
• half of your position at 75, then you would have put an order in to sell half .
• your position at 81.25. Any history at that level? .
• Yes. .
• So that's certainly a legitimate target to the upside. .
• And then, of course, you could have put .
• another order in up there at $87.50 once the $81.25 order was filled. .
• It doesn't look like we're going to get up to that level. .
• You did have a chance to lock in profits .
• at $75 and then $81.25. Now you're just sitting with a partial position looking to .
• see if the market will recover or if we do go down and close below the 70. .
• 57 level. .
• That's the number we're looking for on Thursday. .
• And if we close below that level, then you .
• get to sell the remainder of your position after already locking in profits. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• I see the futures have slipped a little .
• bit, but it's not going to get anybody overly excited. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning. .
• And on Friday morning, we're going to take .
• a closer look at the Canadian stock market. .