• Good morning everyone and welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the pre market this .
• morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading above fair value. .
• So so far it looks like we're going to see some buying at the open. .
• We do have us. Employment numbers coming out at 8:30 and .
• that could add to the pre market volatility. .
• Well debt ceiling seems to be fading away as a major issue for the market. .
• It and yesterday we saw the VIX come down hard. .
• I think new closing low for the VIX .
• yesterday, that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Chips came back and moved up leading the market higher on Thursday. .
• Of course you've got the queues making a new closing high. .
• You've got the S&P 500 making a new .
• closing high and we closed right at the 421 88 level, closed at 421 82. .
• Now if we can keep going from here then .
• 429 69 would be our next target to the upside for the spy. .
• Looking at the overall market you can see the spy made a new closing high yesterday. .
• If we look at the S&P 500 based on equal .
• weighting, remember this is market cap weighting. .
• So Apple and Tesla have a huge responsibility for yesterday's high. .
• When you give every stock in the S&P 500 equal weighting, it looks more like this. .
• And yesterday was an interesting day for the overall us. .
• Stock market. We had 74 new 52 week highs. .
• At the same time you had more than double the number of 52 week lows. .
• And if we're looking year to date a .
• similar statistical anomaly, we had 121 new year to date highs. .
• At the same time we had over 300 new year to date lows. .
• So you can see what the overall market is .
• doing compared to what is happening on the headlines. .
• Now. .
• While most of the market's attention is focused on what's moving up, we should .
• probably take a look at what's moving down and US. .
• Retail is not doing well at the moment. .
• Yesterday's big disaster was .
• Dollar General which was down nearly 20% on the day. .
• It was already on a sell signal coming into yesterday's trading action. .
• So it's joining Big Lots, Dollar Tree and .
• Target all getting crushed over the past couple of months. .
• So that's not a good sign for the overall economy. .
• If the stocks that probably should be able to make it through a recession. .
• The discount retailers are having a hell of a time at the moment. .
• Now moving on to the Canadian market, if we look at the seasonality chart you can .
• see that we should be peaking right around now. .
• And so to see the market moving up the .
• first day of the month, second day of the month, remember we get that automatic .
• money that comes in and traders usually like to trade with that, not against it. .
• So here we are, we should be peaking now .
• and then the month of June is historically not a good month. .
• Now there's an argument to be made to say that the TSX has already gone through that .
• decline, so maybe the seasonality is off a bit this year. .
• But the TSX made a new low on Wednesday, made a slightly higher low on Thursday. .
• We see the TSX 60 moved up yesterday, filled the gap. .
• Then we saw more money go into mid cap, .
• small cap and micro cap stocks on Thursday. .
• And that could be a good sign going forward if we look at what worked and what .
• didn't work yesterday, well, it was materials and energy were the big winners, .
• while infotech and utilities were the big losers yesterday. .
• Now when we look at materials, that really .
• means anything that's mined out of the ground. .
• And so the materials index was up yesterday. .
• We saw base metals up, we saw the Global Mining index up, we saw gold stocks up .
• nicely right into the channel, trading right up to the upper channel line. .
• So there could be buy signals in any of these sectors on Friday. .
• If we look at major gold stocks, .
• Agnico Eagle traded into the channel, we've got Barrick trading up to the lower .
• channel line, then we've got Kinross trading into the channel, we've got .
• Wheaton trading right up to the upper channel line yesterday. .
• So there could be buy signals in any of those stocks on Friday. .
• And then looking at Teck Resources, .
• Teck traded right up to the upper channel line and closed just below it. .
• So we're looking for a slightly higher .
• close on Friday to give us a buy signal for Teck . .
• Now, energy stocks moved up yesterday, .
• they are not on a buy signal at the moment. .
• We saw crude oil move up nicely yesterday, it's up again in the pre market now. .
• Unfortunately, natural gas is continuing .
• to move lower and it's lower again in the pre market on Friday morning. .
• So we've got Cenovus trading up into the channel, we've got Imperial Oil trading up .
• into the channel, and we've got Suncor trading up into the channel. .
• So any of those stocks could generate a buy signal on Friday. .
• Now, looking at the financial sector, when .
• we look at the panic zone charts, you can see that the overall financials have not .
• broken down below the previous low, unlike bank stocks. .
• So bank stocks still looking fairly weak .
• right now, would certainly consider buying any of them if they started to move up. .
• Now in the financial sector. .
• The TSX itself is doing very well at the moment. .
• It's had a very nice year so far. .
• Some of the regional banks have come back over the past few days. .
• We've got Canadian Western and Laurentian coming back nicely. .
• Laurentian had a huge big update .
• yesterday, so I guess they surprised Laurentian investors on Thursday. .
• Then we've got insurance companies, so we've got SunLife, we've got Great West, .
• we've got Fairfax, we've got Industrial Alliance, all still on buy signals, unlike .
• Manualife, which is still on a sell signal. .
• Had an inside day on Thursday. .
• Looking at the banks themselves. .
• Bank of Montreal trying to hold the lows from back in March. .
• Then the Bank of Nova Scotian and CIBC holding up fairly well. .
• They're both on sell signals, but they haven't been hit too hard. .
• Then looking at the National Bank, which has come down sharply over the past couple .
• of days, and the Royal Bank, which broke down below the March lows a while ago. .
• And then we're looking at the TD Bank. .
• And the TD Bank is trying to hold the March lows at the moment. .
• Last up technology stocks, and some of them aren't doing well. .
• The overall technology sector, which is .
• heavily weighted to shopify, is holding up okay. .
• But Nuvei had an inside day yesterday after making a new low for this move on .
• Wednesday, trying to hold the lows from early March. .
• Then we're looking at Payfare, which had .
• an inside day on Thursday after making a new low on Wednesday. .
• And then Telus International made a new low on Thursday. .
• Now looking at a couple of the winners. .
• Celestica. .
• There was a time when Celestica was the Shopify of the Canadian stock market, and .
• it was a stock we used to talk about every day. .
• Boy, times have changed. .
• Celestica, if you had a bought it just .
• above $15, you've had several opportunities to take money off the table. .
• We ran up to the highs from back in February and started to fade. .
• So once we got up to the $18 level, we started to pull back. .
• Been down the last four days in a row. .
• Looking at Open Text after the big pop, I wouldn't have chased it. .
• It's still on a buy signal here. .
• No change in trend. .
• BlackBerry, which had a big month in the month of May, still on a buy signal. .
• That would change on Friday with a close below 699. .
• Then looking at Coveo, it apparently is an .
• AI stock now, and so it's had a nice run over the past couple of days. .
• And then looking at shopify. .
• Shopify popped at the start of May. .
• Not something I would have chased. .
• It's been on a sell signal for over a week now. .
• So no change in trend there. .
• Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
• US employment numbers came out. .
• They're very strong. .
• And the stock market is continuing to trade higher this morning. .
• I'm not sure why it's good for the stock .
• market, because it's telling the Fed that they still haven't done their job yet. .
• They still haven't slowed down the overall economy. .
• And so that tells me they probably want to continue to raise interest rates. .
• But on Friday morning, the stock market doesn't seem to care. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday. .