• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen White side here from the .
• uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. .
• Well, it's Sunday evening. .
• Stock Index futures have started to trade. .
• So far, they're trading down below fair value, but not by too much, so they .
• haven't been overly spooked over the weekend. .
• Commodities are mixed. .
• We've got crude oil higher while gold is lower on a Sunday evening. .
• Now, Friday turned out to be an incredibly interesting day. .
• It all started off with some very .
• impressive employment numbers out of the US. .
• Some of the previous numbers reported this year were also revised higher. .
• That sent the stock market heading sharply higher. .
• It wasn't that big a deal at the open, but .
• the market certainly continued higher throughout the day. .
• So there's the DAO Diamond's back on a buy signal. .
• There's the iShares for the TSX 60 closing one penny above the upper channel line .
• right at the bottom of that open gap from a couple of weeks ago. .
• And we also saw quite wide participation on Friday. .
• There's the iShares for the Russell 2000 .
• popping up, closing above the previous high from a couple of weeks ago. .
• So that's back on a buy signal. .
• We've got microcaps back on a buy signal. .
• Now in 2023, the story, of course, has .
• been all about the big cap technology stocks. .
• So it was quite interesting on Friday to see all boats rise. .
• That could be the start of something new. .
• But on Friday, I think stock market investors forgot .
• what story was being told, what movie they were watching right now. .
• What happened on Friday was a bit like .
• watching the sound of music and right in the middle of the movie, aliens attack. .
• That's what happened on Friday because the .
• Fed is still in charge and they want to fight inflation. .
• And what they want to see is the economy slowing down. .
• They don't necessarily have to run us into recession, but they want to see evidence .
• that inflation is pulling back and the economy is slowing down. .
• And the numbers they saw on Friday aren't going to help that story at all. .
• So I'm not sure how much further the stock market can go up from here. .
• Some people are talking what happened on Friday is a blow off top. .
• Only time will tell. .
• We've been looking at the seasonality charts for the past few weeks about the .
• TSX, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, and they all tell us basically the same thing. .
• Historically, markets peak in the first .
• week of June and then pull back into the third week of June. .
• Is that what happened on Friday? .
• Was that the peak, the seasonal peak? .
• Seasonality charts, they're averages, basically. .
• What you don't see here is the one year .
• where the stock market had a huge move up in the month of June, and you also don't .
• see that one year where the stock market had a huge pullback in the month of June. .
• This is all averaged out, so it just gives .
• us an indication of historically what could happen. .
• But of course, this year is different than .
• previous years in a lot of ways, and we never had AI before to deal with, .
• and big cap tech stocks leading the market higher. .
• That doesn't happen all the time. .
• But here we are in 2023, .
• ending the first week of June, and this is what we're expecting on a seasonal basis. .
• Now, looking at the VIX, if you're a long .
• term investor, the VIX has continued to move lower. .
• It was down 18.66 % on the week. .
• And so we would go from being long term bullish to being long term bearish if the .
• VIX were to close above $20.57 this coming Friday. .
• If you're trading the market, then on .
• Monday will remain bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above .
• $18.48. And you can see the upper channel line is starting to curl down. .
• So if we don't close above that level on .
• Monday, when we come back here on Tuesday, that upper channel line will be lower. .
• Now, what happened this week? .
• Is it the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning? .
• We don't know. Only time will tell. .
• But it is certainly quite interesting to see how the market overreacted on Friday. .
• Now, moving on to the weekly ETF charts. .
• Starting off with the SPY, it was up 1.88 % on the week. .
• Heading towards our next daily price .
• target of 429.69. The high on Friday was 428.74, so pretty close to it. .
• Then our next daily target is 437.50, which is also our next weekly target. .
• Just below that is the high from last summer at 431.78. So to get .
• to 437.50, we've got to get through 431.78, and that's only a couple of .
• dollars away from where we closed on Friday. .
• Looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq does not have that target. .
• That target was already taken out a couple of weeks ago. .
• And so here we continue to move higher. .
• Our next daily target is 359.38. And if we .
• can take that out, our next daily and weekly target is up there at 375. .
• And you can see that we peaked just below that level back at the start of 2022. .
• Looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we traded up to the lower channel line, so .
• we're up 0.43 % on the week, certainly no major change in trend. .
• We did make a new low and reverse off that. .
• So we'll have to see if that new low can hold. .
• Of course, we've been watching the chip .
• sector, which had a huge move up for the previous two weeks. .
• This week it was very quiet down a little over half a %. .
• And then NVIDIA, the big winner from the .
• previous week, was up just under 1 % on the week after making a new high. .
• And it did trade up above 400, then came .
• back and closed at 393.27. So it looks like $400 is acting as resistance. .
• Now, the financials were all up across the board. .
• No new buy signals for US financials or US .
• banks or regional banks or broker dealers or insurance companies. .
• They were all up nicely on the week, but certainly no long term changes in trend. .
• That is also true for Canadian financials and Canadian banks. .
• In both cases, they made new lows for this move and banks certainly made a new low. .
• They are still holding the lows from October of last year. .
• Those haven't broken just yet. .
• Next up, let's take a look at commodity prices. .
• We saw a copper move up this week at 1.24 .
• %, still trading and closing below the lower channel line. .
• Gold was up 0.33 % while silver was stronger up 0.16 %, no change in trend. .
• You should be able to find bacon on sale while hamburger meat and the rest of the .
• beef products are going to be quite expensive this summer. .
• Then looking at lumber, things are fairly quiet inside week for the price of lumber, .
• still on a sell signal, no change there, and no change in trend for the energy .
• sector with crude oil down 1.16 % and natural gas down another 10 % this week. .
• Natural gas still in a long term downtrend. .
• Let's finish off this weekend's presentation with a little life lesson. .
• If you've been with us for any length of .
• time, in fact, if you've been with us for all of the 23 years we've been doing this, .
• you know that I believe that news is noise. .
• All we're really here to do is follow the money and ignore everything else. .
• Now, I do keep up on the news because I have a public persona. .
• Reporters call here and ask me for my .
• opinion on things, and I want to have something intelligent to say to them. .
• So I do keep up, but I would never use .
• news as a catalyst to move my money in or out of the market. .
• Now, here's a perfect example out of today's news. .
• I watch what's going on in Argentina because we have previous employees that .
• live there and they're going through some economic hell at the moment. .
• It's just probably the worst in the world, except there might be a couple of African .
• countries going through a worse economic crisis at the moment. .
• If you go to Google and just type in .
• Argentina economy, here's the type of headlines you're going to get. .
• And really, the big thing is that .
• inflation is up at 100 %, interest rates are at 100 %. .
• This economy is falling apart. .
• People can't afford rent. .
• There's thousands of people sleeping in the airport in Buenas Ares. .
• And it's just a horrible, horrible, horrible, horrible human tragedy. .
• What does that mean for you and I as investors? .
• Well, Argentina is the best performing market in the world at the moment. .
• Year to date, the market is up 74 %. .
• Now, how do you match that up .
• with the news headlines that we just talked about and the reality? .
• The reality on the street is they're dealing with 100 % inflation. .
• Their currency is worthless. .
• The US dollar is the currency of choice for anybody there, not .
• condone by the government or the banking system. .
• But if you want to go there and you want .
• to buy something, it's best to do it in US dollars than it is in local currency. .
• And with all that economic crisis, with all those negative headlines, we are .
• talking about the best performing stock market in the world in 2023, up over 74 %. .
• So that's the end of today's Life lesson. .
• That's all for this weekend's presentation. .
• Stock index futures are down slightly on .
• Sunday night, so nothing's overly spooked the market at all. .
• I'm not totally convinced that Friday was the start of anything new. .
• I think Friday may be the end of the current up move in the market. .
• It might have been a blow off top. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• Only time will tell. Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. it. .