Hello, everyone. .
It's Stephen White side here from theuptrend. .
com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. .
Well, it's Sunday evening. .
Stock Index futures have opened. .
With all that going on in Russia this .
weekend, stock index futures are pretty firm. .
DOW futures currently up 45 points. .
So far, the stock index futures are not .
reacting to what's going on in Russia at all. .
Maybe they know more than the rest of the .
world does, but that's the current situation. .
Now, I'm very concerned about the weakness .
in financials, and we saw interest rates rise around the world this week. .
They went up in Canada, they went up in the UK, they went up in Australia. .
So we are seeing pressure on interest rates. .
And of course, we're still looking for a recession, which I guess everybody is just .
trying to push out as far as humanly possible. .
But you can see US financials pulled back, .
Canadian financials pulled back, and it's really sad to see this lower high here. .
And then we started to pull back. .
Now, what we have to worry about is do we hold support here? .
We came down a couple of weeks ago at the .
end of May and retested the areas of support from back in March. .
And now, let's see what happens this week, .
see if we can find some support or if we keep going. .
Now, regional banks were the big losers on the week in the US, .
and of course, we're not looking to invest in US regional banks. .
We are just looking at it as an indicator, .
hoping that there is not a financial crisis caused by regional bank failure. .
That is still a possibility. .
Now, looking at the seasonality chart, we .
had selling all week, and that basically lines up with the seasonality I would have .
expected it to start a lot earlier than it did this week. .
But from here to the end of the month, it's usually positive. .
And of course, coming into month end is .
usually bullish, coming into long weekends, and we do have some holidays .
coming up on both sides of the border, which usually has a bullish bias. .
So we'll just have to see what happens. .
Now, the VIX is still very bullish. .
If you're a long term investor, we're going to remain long term bullish on the .
market as long as the VIX does not start closing above 18.57 this coming Friday. .
If you're trading the market, we're going to remain short term bullish .
on the market as long as the VIX doesn't close above 14.59 on Monday. .
And of course, if that doesn't happen on .
Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
Now, I saw this chart this week. .
This is from JP Morgan. .
It's a squeeze indicator, and they're .
looking at market sentiment, and we're very overbought at the moment. .
And last time we were this overbought was back in January. .
And if we look at the fly paper channel chart and we go back to that peak in .
January, you can see how much of a sell off we got. .
And if we map that out over on the .
right-hand side, you see that takes us down towards 400. .
Mathematically speaking, you can see we .
start going down two lines 421, 414.06, a lot of support. .
Well, it was previous resistance, which on .
the way back down should be expected to act as support. .
So that would certainly be a legitimate target to the downside for a pullback. .
Of course, if we keep going below that, then that's a stronger indication that the .
market is going into a longer term downtrend. .
And of course, if we start breaking 400, .
that is certainly going to be a huge signal to the market. .
Now, this is a heat map of the S&P 500 year to date. .
And if you look at what's been working, .
these are the stocks we talk about nearly every day, those big cap tech stocks. .
Notice the rest of the market not really participating. .
And look at how big these squares and rectangles are. .
That's the market cap. .
That's the overall value of the shares of the company that are trading. .
And you can see that if you just take .
Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these are huge components of the market. .
And if they start to roll over, they're .
just going to crush everybody else out there. .
So that is certainly a major concern that .
this market is still very thin on the way up. .
There's just not that many stocks really participating right now. .
Now, looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day .
moving average, as you would expect, the Nasdaq is leading. .
64 % of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 50 day moving average. .
It comes down a bit when you look at the S&P 500. .
It comes down more when you look at the .
DOW 30, and it comes down a lot more when you're looking at the TSX. .
Of course, the TSX is being weighed down by a lot of weak commodity stocks at the .
moment, but also the banking stocks are not doing well. .
So Canadian market doesn't have the diversification that the US market has. .
Now, when we look at a weekly chart of the major ETFs that we follow, you can .
see the queues had an inside week, but then when you look at the semiconductors, .
they were down over 4.5 % on the week and closed below the previous week's low. .
So that's a bearish sign. .
It looks like semiconductors may have .
peaked this week, but we're not seeing that in NVIDIA. .
Nvidia was down on the week just 1.13 % .
and certainly did not close below the previous week's low. .
Nvidia made a new high this week with a very small pullback. .
Looking at the S&P 500, it also had an inside week. .
Inside weeks, of course, are weeks of indecision. .
The market is waiting for additional informationbefore it makes a bigger move. .
And of course, in the S&P 500, you've got Tesla still holding up fairly well. .
Tesla traded up into that open gap. .
It traded above the open gap, which of course is now closed. .
But you can see that that gap area has .
acted as an area of resistance for the market. .
Next up, we're looking at the DOW. .
And of course, in 2023, the DOW is trailing the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. .
We pulled back this week, closed below the previous week's low, and once again, we .
failed to break out above 343.75. This is an area of resistance .
that's been in place for a year now, and that looks like it's the top for this .
particular move, but we'll just have to wait and see. .
What's not working on the DOW in 2023? .
Well, the biggest loser has been 3M .
followed by Walgreens, followed by Chevron. .
What's been working on the DOW? .
Well, of course, let's just point at Apple. .
Apple made a new high this week at 187.56. Our next price target was 187.50. So .
chitchat, you got to lock in some profits up there. .
Congratulations. .
Now looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, .
we've been on a sell signal for five weeks now. .
We made a new closing low this week and you can see we're breaking down below .
29.69. Our next price target and the next potential area .
of support is at 28.91. You can see that it acted as support earlier in the year. .
What's working on the TSX? .
Well, once again, we have to go back to .
technology with Shopify being the big winner in 2023, followed by Open Text. .
Open Text is looking pretty Bearish right now. .
We've been down three weeks in a row. .
It looks like we've put in a top, waiting for a sell signal with a close below 52. .
68. This coming Friday. .
Then our next winner for 2023 is Kominko. .
Looking like it put in a top two weeks .
ago, and we'll have to see if we can continue to move lower from here. .
Now looking at the losers for 2023 on the .
TSX 60, Nutrien has been the big loser, followed by Cenovus, .
followed by Pembina Pipeline which put in a new low for 2023 on Friday. .
Let's finish off looking at commodities and starting off with energy. .
We had crude oil down just under 3 % on the week, so no change in trend there. .
Natural gas was up on the week and is back on a buy signal as of Friday's close. .
Then looking at the metals, we had a .
reversal in copper, so still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. .
A lower low for gold and a lower low for gold and a lower low for silver. .
So no help to the mining stocks from commodity prices this week. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
Thank you very much for your time and attention. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .