• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• Today is Tuesday, July fourth. .
• US markets are closed, Canadian markets are open. .
• Canadian markets were closed yesterday. .
• US markets were open for a half day. .
• I was going to do an update tonight, but I'm really going to leave it. .
• There isn't too much we can gain from what's happened in the markets yesterday .
• and today, so we won't do an update tonight. .
• We'll do one on Wednesday night and .
• that'll get everybody back up to date with the markets back open on Wednesday. .
• I guess the biggest thing that happened in the month of June was Apple's valuation .
• got up over three trillion for the first time. .
• Apple doing incredibly well at the moment. .
• We are looking for our next price target, which is up there at 200. .
• We haven't broken away from 187.50 just .
• yet, but it is looking like the market wants to go there. .
• If we can punch through 200, then 212.50, 225 come into play. .
• Now, if there is a pullback during the summer, it wouldn't be unreasonable to .
• expect the market to try to find support at 175. .
• If that were to start to break, that would be a negative sign for the overall market. .
• And if you look two lines down from 175, that takes you back down to 150. .
• And then if we start to head two lines .
• lower than that, you've got 137.50 and 125 come into play. .
• But right now, as of July fourth, we are still looking higher for Apple. .
• And the first sign that something new is .
• happening is a close below the previous week's low. .
• And we're certainly not seeing that right now. .
• Next up, let's take a look at the VIX or the Fear Index. .
• And it is still on a weekly sell signal, .
• and that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Things would change for our weekly VIX .
• chart if we were to close above $17.91 this coming Friday. .
• So since late March, the market has .
• basically been in a no fear situation looking at the weekly charts. .
• And that is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• It doesn't guarantee that everything is going to go up. .
• There's different sectors in the market that have not done well in 2023. .
• But what it does tell us when the VIX is on a weekly sell signal is that investors .
• are still willing to look for opportunities. .
• So if they get kicked out of one stock, they're willing to go find another stock. .
• If they're kicked out of a sector or an .
• ETF, they're willing to go look for another sector, another ETF. .
• They're willing to buy the dip. .
• When the VIX turns around and generates a .
• weekly sell signal, we know that that tone of the market has started to change .
• and investors are less likely to look for new opportunities at that moment. .
• They're less likely to buy the dip once the VIX gets on a weekly buy signal. .
• Now, the same is true on a daily chart, but of course, a shorter term time frame. .
• And we went through the whole month of June with the VIX on a sell signal. .
• And that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• I was looking for a more significant .
• pullback in the month of June, and we did not get that at all. .
• And you can see the VIX was on a sell signal through the whole month. .
• And so things would change on Wednesday if .
• the VIX were to close above $14.23. Now, reviewing the month of June, .
• the TSX was up just under 3 %, the DOW was up a little over 4.5 %, and then we get .
• the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up close to 6.5 % for the month. .
• The big winners in North America were the US Transports and US Homebuilders. .
• Those were the big winners in North America. .
• What didn't work? .
• Well, Canadian Marijuana stocks were down nearly 4.5 %, and then we had Silver .
• miners down over 3.5 % for the for the month. .
• Now, seasonality. This is a seasonality chart of the Nasdaq. .
• And for the major indices, they're all fairly similar. .
• I was expecting a more significant pullback in the month of June. .
• We didn't get that. .
• We did get the run up into the end of the month. .
• And historically, we do get a summer rally during the month of July. .
• If we go back over the past few years, you can see there's July in the middle here. .
• Here's the month of July for 2018, for 2019, for 2020, for 2021, we had a .
• dip, but by the end of the month, we were still trading higher. .
• And then in 2022, that was last year, we did get a couple of pullbacks in the month .
• of July right at the start and then into the second week. .
• But then from there on, we kept moving higher. .
• So the seasonality for the month of July is historically very bullish. .
• And we're coming in on a very bullish quarter end, month end. .
• And so it'd be interesting to see how things end this week. .
• Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, and we're still looking at weekly .
• charts here, our next target is 3,125, which is a very important target .
• because that's where we found resistance several times during 2023. .
• Then looking at the DOW Diamond's, we've driven up to the 343.75 level. .
• We closed at 343.85 on Friday. .
• And of course, this level has been holding us in check for the past year. .
• If we can start breaking out above the .
• highs from last fall, then we're looking for a move up to 359. .
• 38 as our next possible target. .
• The SPY is starting to break out above the .
• 437.50 level, but it hasn't broken away from it just yet. .
• Our next target is 453.13 on the weekly charts. .
• Then the Nasdaq has been staring at 375 for a few weeks now. .
• If we can take out 375, then 406.25 comes into play. .
• Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, .
• 187.50, we closed at 187.27 on Friday, so that area of resistance is still working. .
• If we can start breaking out above that, then $200 certainly comes into play. .
• That is a big round number. .
• As you look, you can see several times .
• over the past year where we've run into the $200 level and reversed. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation looking at commodity prices. .
• Crude oil was up on the week, inside week .
• for crude oil, looking for a close this coming Friday above 73.12. Looking at .
• natural gas, we're just down five cents on the week. .
• Then looking at the price of copper, we are down 1.47 % on the week. .
• So still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. .
• Gold bounced off $1,900 and end of the week just down 20 cents. .
• So maybe we'll find support at 1900. .
• We'll just have to see. .
• Of course, the first sign of something new is if we close above the previous week's .
• high and then inside week for the price of silver. .
• Now we're halfway through 2023 and the .
• stock market is still dealing with the same themes it was dealing with at the .
• start of the year, whether that's central banks fighting inflation by raising .
• interest rates that is still going on around the world. .
• We're also watching countries fall into recession. .
• It hasn't happened in North America yet, .
• but it'll probably happen at some point in the not so distant future. .
• And then, of course, we're still watching China implode internally, and that has not .
• had much effect on the stock markets either. .
• So it's not about what's going on, it's .
• about how the market reacts to what's going on. .
• And that's why we talk about Following The Money and not following the news or .
• people's projections of what could happen in the future. .
• We're just here to follow the money and to .
• fight our way through all of that market noise that is going on. .
• Because if you had a fall of those themes, which were all very bearish, .
• you certainly wouldn't be participating in the market today. .
• Okay, that is all for today's presentation. .
• I was going to do an update on Tuesday night, and then I thought better of it. .
• We don't need to deal with what's happened on Monday or Tuesday. .
• Markets are thinly traded. .
• The pros are on holidays at the moment. .
• Some of them will be coming back tomorrow. .
• I'm sure some of them are taking the whole .
• week off, but we'll wait until we get Wednesday's data. .
• We'll print that on Wednesday night and .
• we'll make decisions on what to do next based on Wednesday night's data. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
• Next time I'm donating blood is going to .
• be tomorrow morning at 10 AM at Yonge & Bloor. .
• So if you're in the neighborhood, stop by, say hello, go for a coffee. .
• Otherwise, have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .