• Hello, everyone, and welcome to this .
• weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television. .
• My name, of course, is Stepen Whiteside from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• And in this weekend's presentation, we're going to focus a little more on the .
• Canadian market than we usually do in the weekend presentation. .
• Of course, we will start off looking at the US market, and we saw bond yields .
• reverse from previous highs that we saw last fall, and they've pulled back. .
• They're still on a buy signal, but the .
• trend has not changed, but the momentum to the upside certainly has. .
• Looking at the US dollar index, it collapsed this week, breaking down below .
• the 2023 lows, while the euro broke out above the 2023 high. .
• So a pullback in the US dollar, of course, makes US exports cheaper around the world, .
• and that can be good for the US stock market. .
• Now, the VIX was down over 10 % on the week. .
• Right now, we're looking for a close this .
• coming Friday above 17.18 to tell us that long term investors are .
• starting to think twice about owning stocks. .
• On the daily chart, if you're watching the .
• market on Monday, a close above 1488 would tell us that short term investors are .
• starting to get concerned about the direction of the stock market. .
• Now, if we look at the daily Fly Paper channel chart, you can see the top of the .
• Fly Paper channel is starting to break down below $18. .
• We can see moves up into the Fly Paper .
• channel can really affect the market on a short term basis. .
• If we're going to see a longer term trend .
• change happen, we would need the VIX to start breaking out above 18. .
• You can see back here in March, we had .
• that for a few weeks before that we started to come back down. .
• So we're really looking for a move up .
• above 18 dollars to tell us that longer term investors are starting to be .
• concerned about the direction of the stock market. .
• When we look at the seasonalities and we're looking at the futures contracts .
• here, the market often peaks in the third week of July. .
• So wouldn't be surprised if the market was going to end the summer rally this week. .
• That doesn't guarantee a huge pullback in the market. .
• It just means that upward momentum is going to start to dissipate and we .
• shouldn't look for the market to be able to move much higher from here. .
• That, of course, is looking at historical .
• information and historical data, that doesn't guarantee anything at all. .
• That's just usually what happens. .
• Then it's been pretty good over the past 15 years. .
• 100 % of the time, the market peaks around July 19th. .
• Now, looking at the DOW, the DOW has run up to resistance. .
• Once again, we closed just above the 34,375 level. .
• Looking at a weekly chart here, and you can see that we haven't been able to .
• really break out above that level in over a year. .
• Then looking at the S&P 500, we made a new high this week. .
• We traded up just below the 4531.25 level. .
• Got as high as 4527.76. So very close to our next price target. .
• Then looking at the Nasdaq continuing to .
• move higher up over three and a half % on the week. .
• Now, you've probably heard me say this many times. .
• If you've watched my daily videos, I .
• always tell you to look for the first close below the previous bar. .
• That's the first sign that something's happening. .
• That's not a guaranteed sell signal. .
• It's just a time to reconsider what's going on. .
• If we go back to the start of this rally and we are looking at a weekly chart here, .
• the first time we closed below the previous week's low is right here. .
• Then the next week we reversed, then the .
• next week we came down, didn't close below the previous week's low, and the market .
• did continue to trade lower but did not close below the lower channel line. .
• We bounced off the lower channel line and moved up. .
• And since that time, we have not closed below the previous week's low once. .
• Yes, we've closed lower, we've had inside .
• weeks, but we haven't closed below the previous week's low. .
• Then depending on what chart you're looking at, it really doesn't matter. .
• These are bars. So if this was a daily chart or an hourly .
• chart or a monthly chart, we look for the same thing. .
• That is the first clue that something .
• might be happening and the market might be starting to change direction. .
• And so far, we certainly haven't seen that for most of the major US indices. .
• Now, we are still stuck at 15,000 for the Nasdaq 100. .
• We're looking at the indexes themselves, not the ETFs. .
• We're still stuck at 15,000. .
• We traded below that this week, and now .
• we're looking to see if we can break out and move up to 16,250. .
• And if you look to the left, way to the .
• left, you'll see that's where we peak back in late 2021. .
• Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian market. .
• And we'll start off by looking at a couple of monthly charts. .
• The TSX has been stuck to 20,000 for a long time now since last year, and .
• really haven't been able to break away from it. .
• I tell people to look two lines up, two .
• lines down anytime they're looking at one of these charts. .
• And so if we look two lines down from here, that takes us back down to 1,750. .
• And that's where we peaked back in 2019. .
• And of course, if you look two lines up, .
• that takes us up to 22,500, which would be just above where we peaked in late 2021. .
• Those are our price targets. .
• If we're going to break down and pull back, that's down to 17,500. .
• If the bull market is going to continue or we're going to break out, .
• then 22,500 would be the top of our projected trading range. .
• Now, when you're looking at the TSX 60, the numbers are a little different. .
• If we pull back from where we are now, down two lines, I'd be back down to 1,000. .
• Of course, two lines up takes us up to 1,500. .
• And then looking at the ishares for the .
• TSX 60, two lines down takes us down to $25. .
• Two lines up takes us up to $37.50. Those are your long term price targets. .
• Now, if we look at the weekly charts, the .
• TSX traded and closed just slightly above the upper channel line. .
• That's technically a buy signal. .
• I would personally be interested in buying the Canadian market if it broke out above .
• the previous highs that we saw back in April and back at the start of the year. .
• That would be more convincing. .
• There's the TSX 60 closing just below the upper channel line. .
• Midterm charts are back on a buy signal. .
• Small cap charts are back on a buy signal, .
• and microcap stocks are back on a buy signal. .
• Looking at the sectors, consumer discretionary still on a buy signal. .
• No joy for consumer staples. .
• Looking at energy stocks, we actually .
• traded up through the upper channel line this week, but then pulled back. .
• Still closed higher on the week, certainly not in sync with the price of oil. .
• Financials are back on a buy signal. .
• Banks are back on a buy signal. .
• We'll take a look at some of those stocks in a few minutes. .
• Gold stocks were up big time this week, up over 7 %, still not on a weekly buy .
• signal, but certainly lots of daily buy signals. .
• And that's a pretty bullish chart. .
• You can see that we recently put in a .
• higher low and a higher high, and that's usually a bullish sign, no guarantee. .
• But certainly when you're looking and .
• comparing one chart against another, it's a very bullish chart. .
• Compare that to income trusts, and you can .
• see that we recently put in a lower high and a lower low. .
• So that's a more bearish looking chart if you were to compare the two of them. .
• Then looking at health care, nothing going on there. .
• There's only a handful stocks in the TSX Healthcare Index these days. .
• Then looking at global mining, back on a .
• buy signal, we've got base metals back on a buy signal. .
• Inside the channel for industrials, we're .
• still on a weekly buy signal, no trend change there. .
• And then InfoTech, looking very similar to the Nasdaq. .
• Of course, this particular sector is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks. .
• Some of our Canadian InfoTech stocks not doing very well. .
• That is also true in the US, in which the .
• Nasdaq is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks. .
• Then looking at materials, trading up into the channel, no buy signal there. .
• Looking at real estate, we're back on a buy signal. .
• Looking for a close above 309.34. We .
• closed at 310.47. Then looking at telecom stocks, they were down on the week. .
• We'll take a look at those in a minute. .
• Then utilities were up, made a new low for .
• this move, and then reversed, but still on a weekly sell signal. .
• Let's look at some individual stocks in .
• the winner on the TSX this week was Laurentian Bank, up over 27 %. .
• Then the market showed some interest in Canadian Western Bank, up over 5 %. .
• Td Bank was up 3.71 % on the week, third week of a buy signal. .
• Then Bank of Nova Scotia was up 2.14 %, still no weekly buy signal just yet. .
• And the Royal Bank back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close. .
• Looking at what didn't work, while .
• insurance companies didn't really perform in sync with banks, Intact Financial was .
• the biggest loser, just down 1.58 %, still on a weekly buy signal. .
• And we saw a small pullback for Sun Life, still on a weekly buy signal. .
• Now looking at technology, of course, .
• Shopify is the big elephant in the room and it was up over 10 % on the week. .
• Then looking at Celestica, up over 5 %, making a new high for this move. .
• And then anything Bitcoin related did well. .
• So Hut 8 and Bitfarm were both up on the week. .
• Constellation Software was up 1.44 %, and .
• it's another big behemoth in the tech sector. .
• What didn't work? .
• Telus International down over 30 % on the week. .
• The market hasn't liked this stock for quite a while now. .
• Some other stocks, the market's watching closely. .
• The telecom stocks are all down this week. .
• We saw Bell, we saw Rogers, and we saw Telus all trade lower on the week. .
• And of course, all of them have already .
• been on weekly sell signals for a few months now. .
• Let's finish off this week looking at commodity prices. .
• And we've got copper back on a weekly buy signal. .
• Gold was up on the week. .
• Silver was the big winner. .
• So the industrial metals, copper and silver, did very well on the week. .
• Crude oil was also higher up 2.42 % back on a weekly buy signal. .
• And unfortunately, natural gas pulled back just 1.56 % on the week. .
• Still on a weekly buy signal, still have not got the pros to take control. .
• You'd think with all this heat and people using air conditioners, there'd be more .
• demand for natural gas, which would push up the prices. .
• But that's not what's happening at the moment. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
• Stock index futures have started trading .
• on Sunday night and so far they're just down slightly. .
• So no major selling in the premarket on Sunday night. .
• I always end my presentations asking you to donate blood. .
• Why not meet me halfway? .
• At least find out what your blood type is. .
• I was at a party on Friday night and some .
• of the people I was talking to had no idea what their blood type was. .
• It's rather important if something ever happened to you and it was an emergency .
• and they gave you the wrong type of blood because they didn't know what your blood .
• type was, that could cause really, really bad problems. .
• So you want to know what it is. .
• You want to make your family aware of what your blood type is. .
• Luckily, I have the most common blood type, so I'm more than likely to get the .
• right type of blood if something ever happened to me. .
• But you could find out that you could be a local celebrity if you have a rare blood .
• type and the blood bank in your area is really looking for that type of blood. .
• You could be a local celebrity, so you should at least meet me halfway. .
• If you're not willing to donate blood, at least find out what your blood type is. .
• Okay, folks, again, that's all for this weekend's presentation. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .