Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
com. In the premarket this morning, stock index .
futures and commodities are slightly above fair value. .
So far, it looks like we're going to see .
some buying at the open on Wednesday morning. .
Now, in today's presentation, we're going to do a couple of different things, but we .
were certainly going to start off looking at the VIX. .
The VIX is still on a daily sell signal and a weekly sell signal. .
Of course, both of those are supportive for higher stock prices. .
On a short term basis, things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close .
above $14.59. Now, the Nasdaq hit a new high .
yesterday, and of course, a handful of stocks in the Nasdaq have been responsible .
for most of the gains in the North American stock markets this year. .
I had a question yesterday asking if the volumes of the bull and bear ETFs could .
help indicate possible change in market direction. .
And for the most part, I would say no. .
I would strongly encourage you to watch price action over everything else. .
Price action tells us intention, volume does not. .
You've got a slight decline in the average volume for the triple bulls yesterday. .
And if we look at the triple bears for the .
Nasdaq, you can see the volume was slightly above average. .
So no major change yesterday. .
And I certainly wouldn't spend much time .
looking at the volumes as opposed to the actual price action itself. .
Of course, the bull and the bear ETFs on the TSX look very similar. .
Of course, they have less volatility than the triples in the US. .
Now, one of the things I'm watching .
closely, of course, we're anticipating the end of the summer rally this week or next, .
and you can see that the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq 100 currently trading .
above their 50 day moving average is coming up to the top of the range. .
If we take these three highs here, and I'm .
looking at those highs because they had the most negative reaction .
afterwards, they match up very nicely on this weekly chart to major turning points .
for the Nasdaq over the last couple of years. .
Here we are. .
We're up at the top of the range and we're .
looking for the summer rally to come to an end. .
This is certainly the time and place for that to happen. .
Now, this heat map is a year to date heat map of the S&P 500. .
And you can see, and we've been talking about this, this isn't anything new, but .
you can see most of the gains are from over here. .
They're certainly not from over here. .
And you can see how big these boxes are .
indicating the overall market value of each of these stocks. .
So a handful of stocks have been pulling the market higher this year. .
Now, as of Tuesday night's close, 189 of .
the S&P 500 are still negative for the year. .
And one of the stocks that I watch closely, of course, is Goldman Sachs. .
And we'll take a look at that in a second. .
But you can see that we've got NVIDIA up over 200 %, we've got .
Meta up over 150 %, then we've got Tesla up 138 % in change, we've got Apple up .
nearly 50 %, and we've got Microsoft up nearly 50 % for the year. .
At the same time, and I was shocked to see this, that BlackRock, the big asset .
manager and investment house, is up just a little over 4 % for the year. .
One of the financial stocks that I follow very closely. .
I'm either long or short this stock is actually down 1.78 % for the year so far. .
Nowhere near anything that's a reasonable gain for 2023. .
Of course, the biggest losers in 2023, a .
lot of them are the regional banks in the US, but there are other companies as well, .
such as Advanced Auto Parts, which is down over 50 % on the year. .
Now, looking at the TSX, we're only up a little over 5 % year to date. .
So all of the mutual funds that are .
attached to the TSX that use the TSX as their guidepost are up just a little over .
5 % for the year, less, of course, the actual expenses. .
If we look at a heat map of the TSX, you .
can see how important Shopify is for the gains. .
But look at all this. .
All these banks are negative for the year. .
The railroads are negative for the year. .
Look at all this. .
That is a really ugly heat map if you think that you're in a bull market, which .
is certainly what the major US indices are telling us. .
Right now, or as of Tuesday's close, 84 of .
the 228 stocks on the TSX composite Index are negative for 2023. .
Of course, the big winner on the TSX in .
2023 has been Shopify, up over 88 % as of last night's close. .
The biggest loser on the TSX .
is Telus International down over 50 % for the year. .
Now, yesterday, one of the big winners was the TD Bank. .
We've been watching that stock closely, made a new high for this move, and we saw .
a huge gain for Charles Schwab on a Tuesday up over 12 % on the day. .
Now, let's finish off with a couple of more charts. .
Bitcoin has pulled back over the past .
couple of days, and we're looking at all the Bitcoin related stocks which have .
certainly outperformed the gains in Bitcoin. .
The stocks have done much better than the actual cryptocurrency itself. .
And you can see that as we go through the .
Bitcoin related stocks on the TSX, that they're all pulling back and there's the .
potential for a daily sell signal based on Wednesday's close. .
Okay, folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning's presentation. .
We're anticipating the summer rally to come to an end. .
All good things come to an end if you look .
at stock charts and look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their .
moving averages, when that's going to happen, what the catalyst for that is .
going to be, of course, has yet to be determined. .
Enjoy the rest of your day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .