• Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are mixed. .
• The DOW and the TSX are trading slightly .
• higher, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are trading slightly lower. .
• Commodities are higher in the premarket on Thursday morning. .
• Now, the reason we're seeing weakness in .
• the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq this morning is a couple of those .
• big cap technology stocks that we follow closely are pulling back off of earnings, .
• but in both cases, not enough to give us a sell signal. .
• Last time I checked, we had Netflix trading right around $449. .
• We're looking for a close on Thursday below $440 and 54 cents. .
• Tesla currently trading around $280. .
• We're looking for a close below .
• $274.24. Now, in both cases, if we don't get sell signals on Thursday, those lower .
• channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Now, yesterday we talked about Bitcoin. .
• Bitcoin had pulled back. .
• It is back on a sell signal. .
• Pros are giving up control. .
• That is no guarantee that Bitcoin is going to continue to move lower from here. .
• Last time I checked, it was trading .
• slightly higher in the premarket this morning. .
• Those Bitcoin stocks that we looked at .
• yesterday, they were trading in the channel for the most part. .
• If you go through them and look at the Hut .
• 8, for example, both in New York and Toronto, still trading in the channel. .
• In the channel is neutral, looking for a .
• close below the lower channel lines on Thursday to give us absolute sell signals. .
• Of course, I hope you've locked in some profits along the way. .
• Now, this is about the third time I've tried to get through this presentation. .
• Apparently, I want to be really chatty .
• this morning, and so I've tried to cut things down as much as possible. .
• The VIX traded higher yesterday, .
• still at the lower channel line looking for a close on Thursday above .
• $14.45. We did put in a bullish reversal day yesterday looking for a move higher. .
• We're seeing that in the pre market this morning. .
• The pros are starting to take control. .
• So if we've got a bullish reversal day in .
• the VIX, that could help mark the end of the summer rally. .
• If we're looking at the Nasdaq here, the .
• queues, and you can see we're down just nine cents yesterday. .
• We're down over two dollars last time I checked in the premarket. .
• And so if we're going to move down from here, you've got to expect all the levels .
• of support port on our price target chart to hold, but the .
• market may want to head down to the Flyaper Channel. .
• Now, today, if we were to move down to the .
• Flyaper Channel, that would be a 13 % decline. .
• As time passes, that Flyaper Channel is going to continue to move higher. .
• Now, just about every chart has open gaps in the chart and the market will probably .
• want to go back and fill those at some point. .
• If we were going to get a more severe .
• decline and let's say we went back to the high hs from back in January, that would .
• be a 20 % decline approximately from where we are right now. .
• Of course, time is going to pass. .
• The Flyaper Channels are going to move higher. .
• Each stock has an open gap that could be a potential target on a summer pullback. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• We might have to wait to September or October for those gaps to get filled. .
• When you're looking at the Flyaper Channel, you can see the thinner .
• the channel, the more volatile the stock over the long term. .
• You can get a shorter term look at .
• volatility by looking at the average true range. .
• And you can see the bars have been fairly small over the past few weeks. .
• So you've got dramatic long term volatility, much .
• smaller short term volatility looking at NVIDIA. .
• If NVIDIA went back down and filled the .
• open gap from where we are right now, that would be a 33 % decline. .
• And then looking at Meta, you can see it's got a nice open gap here and over here. .
• Those gaps could get filled at some point, .
• but that is not a concern on Thursday morning. .
• Now looking at Tesla, you can see that we've got the .
• Flyaper Channel just coming up to the 230 level. .
• So if we were going to pull back, you have to assume that the market is going to want .
• to try to hold support here at the 240 level. .
• If that broke down over the next couple of weeks, you're going to find the .
• Flyaper Channel is going to be up at that level as well. .
• So that could certainly be a place where Tesla traders would want to find support. .
• Now for the overall, the vast majority of .
• investors in the stock market, and I'm not talking about short term traders, I'm .
• talking about investors the question is, did 2023 really happen? .
• Because we've watched a handful of stocks .
• move higher and most people, if they've got a broadly .
• based mutual fund or an ETF, they are participating in this. .
• But when we look at the overall market and .
• we look at the big cap stocks that the markets are based on, most of .
• them haven't moved since the start of the year, whether you're looking at a stock .
• like Boeing or Coca Cola or IBM 3M is in anywhere near where it started 2023. .
• Then you look at Caterpillar. .
• Caterpiller has had an amazing run since the end of May, but where did it get to? .
• It's back at where it was at the start of the year. .
• Now, when we look at the Canadian market, which has not done as well as the US .
• market because it's only got one big cap tech stocks, which is Shopify. .
• When you look at those big stocks that are in the TSX 60, you've .
• got BCE, you've got Canadian Natural Resources, the Railroads, look at them. .
• They haven't done anything all year. .
• Then looking at Imperial oil, or you're .
• looking at Loblaws for groceries, or you're looking at insurance with Manulife, .
• or you're looking at banking with the Royal Bank, or you're looking at mining .
• with Teck, these stocks are where they were at the start of the year. .
• So for the average investor, nothing's really happened in 2023. .
• It's just those handful of big cap stocks. .
• And I'm concerned at what's going to happen to the market when those big cap .
• tech stocks start to pull back, which they will at some point. .
• History tells us that's what's going to happen. .
• And if we get a major pullback in those stocks for whatever reason, the rest of .
• the market probably won't do very well over the coming six months. .
• Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
• Looking for a pullback at the open, but .
• probably not enough to really scare investors. .
• And I don't think we'll get a lot of .
• overall damage from Thursday's trading action. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning. .