• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com with this weekend's edition of Stock .
• Market Timing Television, the Canadian edition. .
• Let's start off this weekend's .
• presentation looking at a couple of daily charts. .
• The TSX certainly ended the week on a .
• bullish note, we are coming up to not only our next daily target of 20,625. .
• This was a major area of resistance back in April and into May, .
• and you can see that this week's activity actually generated a weekly buy signal. .
• I wouldn't be too excited about taking it. .
• As I mentioned, we're coming up to the next daily and weekly price target, and .
• that level has held us in check all through 2023. .
• It looks like we might be coming to the end of the summer rally, and we'll look at .
• that in a little more detail in a few minutes. .
• If we can take out the 2023 highs and .
• let's say that commodity started to push higher, then .
• we're looking at an opportunity to move up to 21,875. .
• And as you can see, that's where we peaked out in early 2022. .
• Let's move from daily and weekly charts to some monthly charts. .
• And if you're feeling like things aren't .
• going well in 2023, that is certainly true for the average investor. .
• The TSX is only up 6 % so far this year. .
• And you can see by looking at the monthly .
• chart, we're not really trending on a long term basis. .
• It's still bullish, but we're really not going anywhere. .
• The DOW is just up 6.28 %, so the average .
• Canadian, the average US investor, not really feeling the love this year. .
• When we look at the TSX 60, we're looking at gains a little less than the overall .
• TSX at 5.57 % so far, and you can see we're still in the channel. .
• Now, when we look at midcap stocks, so you .
• take the TSX composite, you take out the TSX 60, the stocks you're left with .
• have been performing better than the overall market, up 7.81 %. .
• Then looking at small cap stocks, we're up just under 3 % for the year. .
• Then looking at the microcap stocks in the Venture Exchange, we're up 8.13 %. .
• No love here. .
• We're still on a monthly sell signal. .
• And as you can see from the peak to the .
• trough, which was about a 50 % decline, we really haven't recovered that much. .
• Now, what's been working? .
• Well, InfoTech technology, Big Cap .
• technology stocks have done very well in 2023. .
• So far, the TSX Information Technology index is up over 40 % so far. .
• A lot of that has to do with Shopify, not .
• the only winner in this index, but certainly when you look at the market cap .
• of Shopify compared to some of the Bitcoin stocks which have done incredibly well in .
• 2023, we're looking at Shopify, we're up over 84 % for the year so far. .
• Now, the Nasdaq 100 is up over 41 %, .
• and of course, we're looking at the Nasdaq 100 here. .
• The Nasdaq composite, which has over 2,500 stocks, is up over 34 %. .
• In both cases, a lot of the gains come from a handful of big cap stocks, .
• including NVIDIA, which is up over 200 % so far this year. .
• We've got Meta up over 144 % and then Tesla up over 111 %. .
• Now, Meta and Tesla ended the week with bearish reversal signals. .
• This is a possible time and place where .
• the summer rally could be coming to an end. .
• Now, Tesla has had a couple of has had a .
• previous bearish reversal signal a couple of weeks ago. .
• You can see the Pros are starting to give up control. .
• They have not abandoned buying Tesla, but they are certainly giving up control. .
• Previously, when we had bearish reversal .
• signals, it marked the top for these particular moves in .
• Tesla, and that could be the case, right, that this is starting right now. .
• Once again, that the next leg down for Tesla has started. .
• Of course, if Meta and Tesla are putting .
• in bearish reversal signals, we're also seeing the Nasdaq 100 put in a .
• bearish reversal signal and semiconductors put in a bearish reversal signal. .
• I think the summer rally is coming to an end right now. .
• We'll just have to wait and see if that is true. .
• We certainly don't have a lot of weekly sell signals to deal with. .
• Now, one of the reasons I think the summer rally is coming to an end for the TSX .
• itself, if we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 20 day .
• moving average, you can see that this index is up at the top of the range here, .
• and this is where things start to slow down. .
• If we overlay the TSX itself .
• over the index, you can see in this particular example where the index peaked .
• and then it took a couple of weeks for the actual TSX to peak. .
• That's also true here. .
• Took another week or so before the TSX peak. .
• But it's very hard for a market to continue to move higher from here. .
• It certainly does not guarantee that all sectors are going to pull back. .
• We could see gold or crude oil spike up .
• this week and take the energy sector higher or the gold sector higher. .
• There's not a guarantee that .
• all the market is going to turn around, but it's usually what happens. .
• And if you've been with me for any length .
• of time, I always say that the air is getting pretty thin up here. .
• It's just harder to make money up at these levels. .
• You're probably not going to see the .
• overall market to be able to move much higher from here at this present time. .
• Now, when the index is down below 20, of .
• course, that's when we look at low risk opportunities. .
• When it's above 80, that's when we consider the market to be high risk. .
• Again, no guarantees, we could continue to move higher for the next week or so. .
• It's not a complete... .
• The fact that you get to point A, something happens. .
• It's just general indication that the air is getting thin. .
• It's going to be harder to make money in .
• the overall market for the next couple of weeks. .
• Now, the only thing that can really help .
• the Canadian market right now is commodity prices. .
• And if we look at copper, we saw copper pulled back into the channel this week. .
• Copper had an inside week or a week of indecision. .
• With copper trading higher over the past .
• couple of weeks, the Pros have not taken control on the weekly chart, so I don't .
• have a lot of hope for copper at the present time. .
• Similar situation for gold. .
• Gold is still trading in the channel, so we have not seen a buy signal. .
• We need to close above last week's high .
• this week to give us a new weekly buy signal for the price of gold. .
• The Pros have turned around, but they .
• still have not taken control, unlike silver. .
• Now, silver has been on a buy signal for the past two weeks. .
• It's having trouble up here. .
• It's put in a bearish reversal signal. .
• It closed below 25. .
• The Pros have taken control. .
• They've been in control for a while now, but really not going anywhere. .
• We were hoping we could start moving up above 25 and take a run at the highs from .
• a couple of months ago, but that isn't what's happening. .
• Now, a lot of people are looking at the fact that this is a very bullish chart. .
• You can see we made a higher low here, then a higher low, then a higher low. .
• We made a higher high, higher high. .
• And so this channel is looking very bullish to a lot of people. .
• But we're looking at price targets, and .
• so far, $25 has been a roadblock for the price of silver. .
• Hopefully, if we can start moving higher from here and continue, 28.12 would be our .
• next target if we can take out the highs from back in April. .
• Then looking at the energy sector, crude oil was up on the week. .
• Moving from a weekly chart to a daily .
• chart, you can see we're stuck at the 200 day moving average. .
• That does not guarantee .
• that the market is going to reverse here, but we had trouble dealing with the 200 .
• day moving average back in April, and so far that's held us in check. .
• If we can continue higher from here, then 78.13 is certainly a legitimate target. .
• That's where we peaked out back in April, just above that level. .
• And then if we can take out the highs from April, then 81.25 would certainly be a .
• reasonable target to the upside for the price of oil. .
• Now, looking at natural gas, we've been building a base for a long time here. .
• We're still trading in the channel. .
• We need another close this Friday above .
• 2.76. You can see the Pros are getting very close to taking control. .
• Last time they took control is back here, .
• and you can see that natural gas took off like a rocket. .
• If we start continuing to move higher from .
• here, then 4.69 would certainly be a legitimate target. .
• That doesn't seem like a lot, but that would be about a 70 % increase from where .
• we are right now if natural gas can continue to move higher from here. .
• With the heat waves going across the world at the moment, you would imagine that .
• natural gas is in high demand at the moment. .
• I know supply is high, but demand is also high at the same time. .
• Now, lumber isn't as important to the .
• Canadian stock market as it used to be, but you can see we had an inside week. .
• We're still on a weekly sell signal here right down at the 2023 lows. .
• And you've probably heard a lot about the .
• price of wheat with what's going on with Russia and Ukraine. .
• Yeah, we're up over 5 % on the week, but .
• we didn't take out the high from four weeks ago. .
• So nothing exciting going on for wheat. .
• We're still on a weekly buy signal here, no change in trend. .
• Now, the Fed is... .
• We're coming up to another Fed meeting. .
• Everybody's expecting the Fed to raise interest rates. .
• Once again, they're trying to fight inflation and you can see the price of .
• gasoline is starting to break out heading towards the highs from early 2022. .
• And so if we're trying to fight inflation, gasoline would be a great place to start. .
• And that's not working out so well right now. .
• Let's finish off looking at the fear index and looking at a weekly chart of the VIX. .
• Fairly quiet trading this week, inside week for the VIX. .
• Long term investors can remain bullish on .
• the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $16.79 this coming Friday. .
• Now, if you're a short term investor or trader, short term investors can remain .
• bullish on the stock market as long as the VIX does not close above $14.27 on Monday. .
• Now, the upper channel line is pretty flat right now, so that number, you could .
• probably use that number for most of this week. .
• Heads will turn, the talking heads will .
• turn if we start to break out, if the VIX starts to break out above 18 dollars. .
• And you can see back earlier in the year, we had a couple of runs at breaking out .
• above the fly paper channel, that didn't work. .
• We recently ran up to the bottom of the fly paper channel and that reversed. .
• So the market is pretty comfortable with .
• the VIX trading below the top of the fly paper channel. .
• If we start to poke out above it, that's when investors are going to get very, very .
• nervous about the direction of the stock market. .
• And we're certainly not there. .
• We're down at a recent low. .
• So this is what we need to look for. .
• It's not what's happening yet. .
• The VIX is on a weekly and a daily sell .
• signal that is still bullish for the market. .
• We saw reversal signals in the market on Friday and this week, and we'll need to .
• see if there's follow through to the downside. .
• If there's follow through to the downside, the downside and the VIX starts to move .
• up, then we'll start to get bearish on the stock market. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .