Godo Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
com. .
In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. .
Commodities are mixed with crude oil lower while gold is higher on Wednesday morning. .
There is a lot of individual stock action .
happening this morning as the market reacts to a whole slew of earnings. .
But the main focus today, of course, is going to be the Fed. .
The market believes that the Fed is going to raise by 25 basis points. .
If they do anything but that, there's .
going to be extra volatility this afternoon. .
We always expect volatility to expand .
after 2 PM on Fed Day, and we certainly believe that's going to be the case today. .
Looking at the fear index, we've been .
treading water for the past couple of days in the channel that is neutral. .
We are still technically on a sell signal .
which is supportive for higher stock prices. .
That could change on Wednesday if the VIX .
were to close above $14.20. If we want the market to continue to move .
higher, we need the VIX to start breaking down below 13.55. Now, the media is still .
focused on the great run that the DOW is having at the moment. .
They'd probably be better off looking at .
the DOW Transports, which have had an amazing run since the start of June. .
S&p 500 closed slightly higher yesterday. .
The Nasdaq closed slightly higher. .
The Nasdaq is still trading in the channel. .
So there's a technical mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday. .
Then looking at the Russell 2000, still trading above the upper channel line, and .
the Semiconnectors are looking very similar to the overall Nasdaq. .
Then we see gold and silver stocks moved up nicely on Tuesday, and we've got gold .
continuing to trade higher on Wednesday morning. .
We'll take a look at that a little later in the presentation. .
Inside day for US Financials, we saw the .
US Bank stocks make a new high before reversing. .
We saw our regional banks make a new high before reversing. .
A lot of that volatility had to do with a couple of regional bank stocks. .
Pacwest was down over 27 % on Tuesday. .
So you come in this morning, you check what's going on in the premarket, you know .
that technically we're back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
But you look at the premarket activity and guess what? .
We're up nearly 30 % in the premarket. .
So you can waive off that sell signal or .
you can take that sell signal and sell it into this up move that we're seeing in the .
premarket, which doesn't take out Monday's high. .
It just brings us back to where we were trading on Monday. .
Then the other stock in this equation is Banc of California. .
It was up over 7 % yesterday. .
Big up move for this stock. .
If you were trading this stock, if you .
were coming into yesterday's trading action and you were long this stock, .
if you've ever been to, had any of our training sessions here, we would have had .
orders in at 14.06 and 15.63, and both of those would have got filled yesterday. .
So you would have got a filled up at 15.63. And of course, the stock came back .
and closed at 14.62. So congratulations to anyone trading Bank of California. .
Looking at those big cap technology .
stocks, we expect some trend changes from today's activity. .
There's lots going on in the pre market. .
There's a possibility of a new buy signal for Alphabet on Wednesday. .
Amazon is trading lower in the premarket, so not expecting a trend change there. .
Apple is fairly quiet this morning. .
Had an inside day on Tuesday, and of .
course, an inside day is a day of indecision, a pause day, and they .
certainly are pausing ahead of the Fed meeting. .
Then we've got Meta trading below the lower channel line. .
It traded higher yesterday, but still on a sell signal. .
We've got Microsoft trading up to the upper channel line on Tuesday. .
It is down in the premarket this morning, .
so not expecting a buy signal on Wednesday. .
We've got Netflix, very quiet trading on .
Tuesday, still on a sell signal here, so no change in trend. .
Then NVIDIA looking just like the SOX Index itself, trading up to the upper .
channel line, so possibility of a buy signal. .
And then we've got Tesla still on a sell signal, no change there. .
Looking at crypto, we still have both Bitcoin and Ethereum on sell signals. .
Yesterday was an inside day. .
So a lot of the markets were pausing on Tuesday ahead of the Fed meeting. .
And then the two big cap crypto stocks that we have in our database, Coinbase, .
still on a buy signal that would change on Wednesday with a close below 95. .
And then we've got Marathon .
on a sell signal as of Tuesday's closing just below the lower channel line. .
Let's finish off looking at commodities. .
And when we look at the GLD, we're still on a buy signal here trading higher. .
We've got Palladian, we've got Platinum, .
and we've got Silver all still on buy signals. .
That's helping the overall mining sector. .
Looking at gold stocks, still on a buy signal for the GDX. .
Silver stocks, still on a buy signal for the SLV. .
Then moving over to the energy sector. .
Unfortunately, this doesn't look good for .
the inflation picture, which, of course, the Fed is focused on fighting. .
There's crude oil making a new high for this move. .
Little pullback there inside day for a gas lean ahead of the Fed meeting. .
And then natural gas trading higher on Tuesday. .
Then looking at the stocks themselves, the .
big cap energy stocks were all up yesterday. .
Oil and gas equipment makers making a new high for this move. .
And then we had a new high for oil and gas explorers on Tuesday. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
As I mentioned, there's a lot of .
individual stock activity in the premarket this morning. .
The overall tone is still slightly to the downside. .
Of course, everybody's sitting on their .
hands waiting for the Fed meeting this afternoon. .
Enjoy the rest of your day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice, is on Thursday morning. .