• Hello everyone and welcome to this .
• weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television for Sunday, July 30th, 2023. .
• My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend. .
• Com. .
• Now, Thursday was a wild day in the market. .
• We made a new high, pulled back, closed lower on the day. .
• It didn't generate a sell signal for most of the major indices. .
• On Friday, we did close higher on the day, .
• inside day, but a new closing high for the S&P 500. .
• Now, we are coming up to month end, and of .
• course, month end has a bullish bias to it. .
• Having a bullish bias does not guarantee success. .
• If there is negativity, the bullish bias could help dampen that negativity, but I .
• certainly wouldn't bent against the market coming into month end. .
• Now, looking at a seasonality chart of the .
• SPY, you can see that the month of July is usually bullish. .
• We are looking for the summer rally to end .
• last week as the market was very overbought. .
• It continues to be overbought and we .
• continue to move higher right into Friday's close. .
• The month of August usually has a pullback as the summer rally ends. .
• It's not usually a major pullback, but in certain years it has been. .
• And if we go back and look through the last 10 years, you'll notice that there .
• have been some very bullish trading in the month of August. .
• If we start off with 2013, you can see .
• that we peaked right at the end of July and then sold off into August. .
• In 2014, we started selling in late July into .
• August before recovering in the second week of August and moving back up. .
• Looking at 2015, we got some aggressive .
• selling going into the second and third week of August. .
• Then looking at 2016, really not much .
• downside pressure until we get into September. .
• Then looking at 2017, you see we peaked in the middle of the first week of August and .
• then saw some selling for the next couple of weeks. .
• Then in 2018, it was a pretty bullish year. .
• We caught a couple of small blips, but for .
• the most part, the market continued to trade higher into the end of August. .
• Then in 2019, it was a more typical month .
• where the selling started at the end of July into the late August. .
• In 2019 and 2020, very bullish year, no .
• disturbance whatsoever in the month of August. .
• Then looking at 2021, very bullish year. .
• You go back into June, there was a couple of days of distress. .
• In July, similar situation into August, .
• and the market just kept moving higher through 2021. .
• Then in 2022, we peaked in the middle of August and saw that pull back .
• and then started to move up into the first week of September. .
• Then things fell apart once again. .
• That's what the seasonality of the month of August looks like for the S&P 500. .
• Now, if you've been watching the stock market for any length of time, you know .
• that we're in a constant state of uncertainty. .
• We're uncertain about what the market is focused on. .
• We're uncertain about how the market is going to react to a certain situation. .
• Are they going to react the same way they did before? .
• Have the major topics they've been focusing on? .
• Is that still an issue? .
• Right now, is inflation still an issue? .
• I know inflation is still out there. .
• It's affecting me and my family every day. .
• Watching the price of gasoline head up to .
• the highs from 2022, I like to watch gasoline as a .
• measure of inflation because it affects the most people. .
• If we look at a number like let's say .
• what's the value of luxury homes in Los Angeles, if they go up or they go down, .
• that doesn't affect the overall population. .
• I'm not sure I really would care much about analyzing that as part of inflation. .
• But here we've got inflation is still an issue. .
• Is it an issue to the market? .
• It may be an issue to consumers, but is it an issue to the market? .
• Is it an issue that the Fed still wants to deal with? .
• Now, when we look at the bond yields on .
• the 30 year bond, and this is a weekly chart, you can see we've been in a fairly .
• narrower range for the past year and a half. .
• We peaked back in 2022, and then we've .
• come back a bit and basically been trading sideways. .
• There's no indication that bond yields are .
• going to go down and interest rates are going to go down anytime soon. .
• Is that still a concern of the market? .
• It's really have no idea. .
• And so that's why we just like to watch price action as opposed to trying to .
• analyze and guess which way the market is going to go next. .
• Now, it's often said that the market is .
• forward looking, and yes, part of the market is forward looking, but .
• the market tripped and fell on its face on Thursday because of news out of Japan. .
• So is that very forward looking? .
• That if the Bank of Japan says something .
• and the market stumbles, that isn't very forward looking at all. .
• But now what we might be seeing right now is the stock market looking past .
• dealing with inflation and looking past the Fed rate tightening cycle .
• and looking at what the world is going to look like beyond that. .
• And that could be why the stock market is continuing to move higher at this time. .
• Now, one of the other topics we've been dealing with in 2023 is US bank failures. .
• And we had another one this week, really .
• small bank in Kansas City, just a couple of branches. .
• But banks are continuing to struggle. .
• And I think we're going to see a few more .
• bank failures in 2023, including probably a major one at some point if the Fed is .
• going to continue to raise rates into the end of 2023. .
• But now, the market isn't really reacting too much to China these days. .
• Maybe they are and we don't notice it. .
• But China is not doing very well. .
• It hasn't been for a while. .
• It's got a housing crisis, it's got a bank crisis. .
• Neither of those those two issues have gone away. .
• One of the ways they're dealing with the housing crisis is by demolishing hundreds .
• and hundreds of condo buildings or apartment buildings. .
• And that's one of the ways to deal with the problem. .
• Now, looking at the charts this weekend, .
• one of the ones I'm concerned about is the TSX and the ishares for the TSX 60. .
• The TSX is traded up to previous .
• resistance on the daily chart and the weekly charts. .
• That's also true for the ishares for the TSX 60. .
• Our Magic number is 31.25 on the daily and weekly chart, and we closed at 31 23. .
• We closed very close to where we opened this week. .
• Looking to see if we can break out above the recent highs from earlier this year. .
• If we go back to the TSX chart and look at .
• the daily chart, two lines up takes us up to 21,250. .
• If we can start breaking out above resistance and above the highs from back .
• in April, then looking two lines up is realistic. .
• That would be one line on the weekly chart, so 21,250. .
• Then if we look at the ishares for the TSX 60, if we can take out the high from .
• April, then 32.03 would be our next target and 32.03 .
• would be our next target on the weekly chart as well. .
• That's where I think the markets could go .
• if we can punch through the resistance that we're dealing with right now. .
• To do that, I'm pretty sure we'd have to see commodities continue to move higher. .
• Of course, if they're moving higher, that means inflation is still an issue. .
• Looking at the VIX, and the VIX is still .
• on a weekly sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• The VIX is a bit harder to deal with at .
• the moment because it's contracted so much. .
• So on the weekly chart, we are looking for a close this coming Friday above .
• $16.45. When we look at the daily chart, I really want to break out above the top of .
• the fly paper channel, which is currently at $17 and change. .
• On the daily right side chart, we had a wild day on Thursday. .
• We made a new low, came back, closed above .
• the upper channel line, and then reversed all that on Friday. .
• So we're back to where we were on Wednesday according to the VIX. .
• Now, when we look at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see in April we came down and .
• we were range bound for a couple of months. .
• Then in June we came down. .
• Now we've been range bound for a couple of .
• months, and now we're looking to see if we can break out of the range. .
• The recent low was 12.73. The recent high .
• was 17.08. Now we're looking to see if we will break out of that. .
• If we break down, that is bullish for the stock market. .
• If we start breaking out above 17.08, of .
• course, that would be bearish for the stock market. .
• Last up, the seven stocks to watch. .
• Nothing broke this week, so the stock market has not broken. .
• Inside week for Apple, making a new closing high. .
• Big up week for Alphabet. .
• Then we had Amazon after dipping in the .
• channel, it came back and closed higher on the week. .
• Meta made a new high on Friday, had a wild week. .
• Then looking at Microsoft, Microsoft peaked last week. .
• It came back this week. .
• So Microsoft looks like it's the weakest stock of the seven. .
• Then looking at NVIDIA, we had a new closing high for NVIDIA this week. .
• And then looking at Tesla, Tesla had a .
• fairly quiet week, still trading above the upper channel line. .
• No change in trend for Tesla. .
• Okay, folks, that's all I wanted to say for this weekend. .
• No major trend changes. .
• The VIX is in a very tight range, looking for a breakout of that range. .
• Otherwise, enjoy the rest of July, and the .
• next time you'll hear my voice is on August first or Tuesday morning. .