• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• Welcome to this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television. .
• Well, I hope you're having a wonderful weekend. .
• It's really nice here and we're heading .
• out for a barbecue a little later this afternoon. .
• This time last week, we were looking at .
• S&P 500 that had a wild day on Thursday and then recovered on Friday. .
• That Thursday was a Bearish Reversal day .
• and has marked the high for this particular move. .
• We move forward a week and we do have lots .
• of new daily sell signals to deal with, but not necessarily weekly sell signals. .
• Now you can see the latest .
• Bearish Reversal signal on the S&P 500 chart. .
• The pros are giving up control but haven't given up control just yet. .
• Looking at a weekly chart of the S&P 500, a big sign of weakness, of course, is the .
• fact that we closed below the previous week's low. .
• That is certainly a warning sign going forward. .
• Looking at the Nasdaq 100, you can see we .
• had a Bearish Reversal three weeks ago, and that high has held us in check. .
• Looking at the Nasdaq composite itself, we ran up to 14,375 and stopped. .
• And so far, that level is holding us in check. .
• And that held us in check earlier in the year. .
• Then looking at the Russell 2000, what do you know? .
• We're stuck at 2,000 and have been that way for a couple of weeks. .
• And 2,000, of course, held us in check earlier in the year. .
• And then looking at the TSX, well, .
• unfortunately, we had a big pull back this week back into the channel. .
• We were trying to break out above the .
• level that has held us in check for a year now, up at 20,625. .
• Unfortunately, that is still holding us in check. .
• Another sign of possible continued weakness here is the fact we put .
• in a high, a lower high, and now we've put in a lower high. .
• So a series of lower highs, not usually a good sign going forward. .
• Now, oddly enough, it was not the big cap stocks in the TSX that have led us higher. .
• If you look at the composite, then you look at the 60 biggest companies and then .
• look at the remainder of the TSX composite or what are called the midcaps. .
• They've outperformed the big cap TSX 60 stocks over the past couple of weeks. .
• Then looking at small cap stocks, they're stuck at resistance .
• at 718.75. Then looking at microcap stocks in the venture exchange, we're trying to .
• break out above 625, closed at 615.72, so still no joy. .
• Now, if this was truly a bull market, and we know it isn't because most of the gains .
• in 2023 have been from a handful of bigcap technology stocks, the venture exchange is .
• basically where it was at the start of the year. .
• So investors have not been compelled to put money into early stage startups such .
• as those listed on the venture exchange, and that's not a good sign. .
• Everybody has a lot more fun in the stock .
• market when small and microcap stocks can do well. .
• And so so far in 2023, that has not been the case. .
• Now, we've gone over this chart a few .
• times over the past couple of weeks, and we've talked about the percentage of .
• stocks currently trading above their 20 day moving average. .
• We looked at the TSX, the Nasdaq, and the S&N P 500. .
• And so here we are. .
• We were up at the top of the range and we were looking for a pullback. .
• Of course, when you're up above 80 %, we consider that a high risk zone. .
• When you're down below 20 %, that's a low risk zone. .
• This is when we look to sell, this is when .
• we look to buy and now we're looking to see how far down we can come. .
• Of course, as you come down to the low risk area, there's no guarantee the market .
• is going to instantly reverse and move higher. .
• Just because we're down here doesn't mean we can't continue to go lower. .
• We're also always going to look for a reversal in price momentum before we start .
• getting too excited about becoming new buyers down in the low risk zone. .
• Now, the biggest mistakes that a lot of .
• investors make is they wait until they get enough psychological support. .
• So anytime that the market is up at these levels where the percentage of stocks .
• currently trading above their 20 day moving average is above 80 %, you're .
• mostly going to find positive news and the market reacting positively. .
• Remember, this last run up that we had, the DOW was up day after day after day. .
• In fact, it broke all its previous track records. .
• We had to go back to 1987. .
• So there was a lot of cheerleading, a lot .
• of positive support from the media up at these levels. .
• So this is the time and place where a lot of investors are willing to throw money .
• into the market because they have that psychological support. .
• Now, the opposite is also true. .
• While we want to short stocks up at these .
• levels, the average investor is going to be looking for negative psychological .
• support before they pull the trigger and short stocks. .
• And so they're going to wait. .
• They don't know they're waiting, but this .
• is the time and place where you get the most negative information about the market .
• is when we're down below 20 % of the stocks on the S&P 500, the TSX, or the .
• Nasdaq trading below their 20 day moving average. .
• So this is the time and place where you're going to get the most negative news. .
• And for somebody who's not that confident, doesn't understand how the stock market .
• works, this is the time and place they're going to decide to either sell or short .
• stocks or buy puts down at the bottom of the range. .
• And that's the exact opposite of what you really want to do. .
• We want to be looking for buying .
• opportunities off the bottom and selling opportunities off the top. .
• Now, talking about selling opportunities, NVIDIA is still holding up fairly well. .
• It's been on a sell signal for a couple of days now. .
• Now, this is just a short term right side sell signal. .
• So this is for short term traders. .
• The midterm chart is still on a buy signal, so that has not changed just yet. .
• Of course, we're still on a weekly buy .
• signal, still closing above the upper channel line, so not with that concerned. .
• We need a close below 395.02 this coming Friday. .
• Not expecting that to happen. .
• And we'll be watching every stock to see .
• how they react to the Fly Paper Channel on the way down. .
• Does the market trade down to the Fly Paper Channel and do previous .
• investors come back and buy the dip, or are they going to start walking away? .
• If they start walking away, you can tell .
• that by the fact that the stock will be trading through the Fly Paper Channel. .
• In this situation, looking at NVIDIA, you .
• can see the top of the open gap basically lines up with the Fly Paper Channel. .
• So that would certainly be a reasonable target to the downside and an expected .
• area where you'd expect the stock to find support. .
• Now, if things are going to get worse, .
• then we're going to break down below the Fly Paper Channel and the market may take .
• a run for the bottom of the open gap, which is just about $300. .
• So if we're going to go from up at the 450 area down to 300, that's a 33 % loss .
• and that's going to have a major effect on the overall stock market. .
• Now, Apple had a very bad day on Friday, .
• not something that you usually see from Apple. .
• And for the last couple of months, most of the bars have been fairly small. .
• We've got a couple where we had wide range .
• bars, but for the most part, they were pretty small. .
• But Friday, not only did we move lower, .
• but we gapped lower and closed near the low of the day. .
• That's not a good sign. .
• 187.50 was our first target, and then 181.25 was our next target. .
• So far, we're holding 181.25. If that .
• breaks, 175 is our next target, then there's a nice open gap just above that .
• that could act as a target on the way back down. .
• We are up at the top of the Fly Paper channel right now. .
• The bottom of it is about 176. .
• So it's certainly possible that we could hold the Fly Paper channel. .
• If we don't, then that's going to .
• certainly send a message to the overall stock market. .
• Now, Amazon popped on Friday. .
• If we look at our price target chart from .
• Thursday, we were looking at 137.50 and 143.75. Got up to 143.63 on Friday. .
• So not enough to hit our exact target. .
• But I ask you to consider putting orders in just below that target. .
• Now, if you're using your Right Side Chart, you weren't .
• participating in that big move on Friday but certainly people using the midterm .
• chart or a longer term analysis certainly are. .
• And hopefully some of you got to lock in some profits. .
• What would I do about Amazon coming in on Monday? .
• Not a thing. .
• I would not be chasing Amazon up at these levels. .
• Then looking at Shopify, Shopify was down over 11 % on the week. .
• It is back on a weekly sell signal as of Friday's close. .
• We came into Friday already on a daily .
• sell signal, trying to hold support in the Fly Paper channel. .
• You can see we're trying to hold support port at the 100 day moving average. .
• I am looking at Shopify on the TSX. .
• You can see we're still projecting down to .
• the 200 day moving average, which is down right around $70 at the moment. .
• Our next mathematical target is going to be 75. .
• Is there any history at 75? .
• Yes, we bounced off it in late May. .
• If that does not hold, then you've got the top and the bottom of the open gap here .
• that could potentially act as price targets. .
• You've also got 68.75 in the middle. .
• So the market may want to come down and fill that open gap. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• And of course, the first sign is a break of $75. .
• Moving on to commodity prices. .
• The price of crude oil continued to move higher, closing above the previous week's .
• high for the second week in a row, 81.25 was our next target. .
• We closed at 81.21 on Friday, certainly hit our target. .
• And of course, if we continue to move .
• higher from here, we will create a new price target going forward. .
• Looking at natural gas, we were down 2.31 % on the week. .
• Looking at the metals, copper had a pullback. .
• We had a Bearish Reversal week in copper. .
• The pros still have not taken control. .
• Gold was down $23.80 on the week, so no change in trend for gold. .
• Having trouble getting up and over and staying over $2,000 at the moment, if we .
• take out the recent low, then $1875 is our next target. .
• And we saw silver pull back 3.18 % still closing above the lower channel line. .
• So we'll close this coming Friday below .
• 23.42 would give us a new weekly sell signal for silver. .
• When we look at the price of silver, .
• notice that we put in a lower high recently. .
• So now we're going to have to see if we continue to make a lower low here. .
• We put in a lower low. .
• Now we're going to have to see what happens next. .
• We put in a Bearish Reversal week three weeks ago. .
• That high is still holding us in check and .
• the pros are starting to give up control on the weekly charts. .
• Looking at stocks, Canadian energy stocks .
• were up 1.39 %, US energy stocks were up 1.25 %. .
• Looking at the metals, .
• US gold stocks were down 3.78 %, while Canadian gold stocks were down 2.88 %. .
• Us gold stocks, Canadian gold stocks still .
• holding the recent low from a couple of weeks ago. .
• We'll have to see if that low holds going forward. .
• Otherwise, our next target to the downside will be the low from spring of this year. .
• Looking at bonds, bonds continue to move lower for the most part this week. .
• Bond yields continue to move higher. .
• Looking to see if the highs from late 2022 will hold us in check. .
• Looking at the XBB, we actually closed down just slightly on the week, closing up .
• the lower channel line after making an intra week low. .
• There's the TL2 MT making a new low for this move. .
• We saw a lot of movement in stocks that .
• are heavily tied to interest rates such as utilities. .
• Us utilities coming down 4.55 %. .
• Canadian utilities coming down 4.27 %, making a new low for this move. .
• Let's finish off looking at the VIX. .
• Last week, we talked about the fact the VIX was in a fairly tight range. .
• Top of the range was 1,7.08. We closed on Friday at .
• 17.10, so starting to break out above the range on the daily chart. .
• We generated a buy signal on Wednesday, .
• saw a small pull back on Thursday, and a nice big up move on Friday. .
• We are starting to punch out above the .
• daily Fly Paper Channel, and we are certainly back on a weekly buy signal. .
• So we will remain long term bearish on the .
• stock market as long as the VIX does not close below 13.75 this coming Friday. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
• We are expecting the market to be weak during the month of August and September. .
• And at some point, hopefully there'll be a .
• low risk buying opportunity where we can ride the market higher into the year end. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .