Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside .
here from TheUptrend.com with your ten second market update. .
If you're a long term investor, all you .
really need to know is that it was an inside week. .
Now, if you don't know what an inside week is, it's similar to an inside day. .
It's where the trading activity fit within the previous bar's range. .
So in this case, the S and P 500 traded within the the previous bar's range. .
So the last trading week of August and .
what we're looking for now is we're looking for a breakout above the previous .
week's high or a breakdown below the previous week's low. .
An inside week, an inside bar is a bar of indecision. .
It's a pause, it's a break. .
The market just wants to wait and get more .
evidence that they should be bullish or they should be bearish. .
Now, in September, there's usually a bearish bias to the month. .
So at some point I think we're going to break down below the previous week's low. .
Now, when we look at the VIX, the VIX also had an inside week. .
So a week of indecision. .
Again, we're looking at for a breakout or breakdown. .
And if you look at this daily chart, you .
can see where the recent low was and the recent high. .
On Thursday, we traded above the upper channel line but did not close there. .
So now on Monday, we're going to be .
looking for a close above $15.32 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX. .
And of course, if that were to happen, .
that would probably be negative for the stock market. .
Now, as we've discussed previously, the .
months of September and October are not usually good for the stock market. .
There's usually additional volatility. .
If we're going to see a significant sell off in September and October, we need the .
VIX to start punching out above the 200 day moving average. .
And as you can see, it's been a while since we've done that. .
So in August, the 200 day moving average held us in check. .
Will it do so again in September? .
We'll just have to wait and see. .
But if you're expecting a significant sell .
off, that's going to be the first clue that it's starting, will be if we start .
punching out above the 200 day moving average. .
Now, if you've been with us for any length .
of time, you've heard me say that news is noise, it's a constant chatter. .
For some people, news is very important. .
For me, it doesn't really matter if I've .
got business television on, I usually have the volume off. .
There's a handful of people I turn the .
volume on for or go looking for their interviews afterwards. .
But I'm really not going to react to the news at all because there's absolutely no .
guarantee how the market will react to news. .
The fact that there's a positive number or somebody beats expectations, that's no .
guarantee the stock's going up and there's absolutely no rule, no guarantee that if .
there's negative news, if a company disappoints, if economic numbers are worse .
than expected, there's no guarantee the market's going down. .
Every situation is different. .
None of them can be replicated. .
People think that if the bond yields cross, that's a bad thing. .
And sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. .
So I want to react to how the market reacts to the news, not how .
I think the market should react to the news. .
Now. The US. .
Dollar index continued to move higher. .
Sometimes that's good for the stock market, sometimes that's bad. .
Right now, I think it's putting a little pressure on the stock market. .
When we look at the metals, the price of .
copper came down, so it's still not trending higher at the moment. .
The price of gold was down $24.40 on the .
week, but still, like the rest of the market, pretty quiet. .
Some more aggressive selling in the price .
of silver, which was down 5.65% on the week. .
Then when we look at the energy sector, .
this isn't good for fighting inflation to see crude oil continue to move higher. .
It was up another $2.10 on the week. .
When we look at the price target chart, it .
looks like 87 50 is not really that significant. .
If we go back, there's more resistance at 93 75. .
We peaked at $100 back at the start of .
2022 and got up as high as the 100 and 625 level. .
So not expecting a lot of long term resistance at 87 50. .
Certainly there's some short term resistance, but not long term resistance. .
So we could see crude oil continue to move .
sharply higher from where we are right now. .
Natural gas, on the other hand, is still just treading water for some reason. .
In 2023, nobody wants to bid up natural .
gas, but that could change by the time the year ends. .
Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, it was an inside week. .
Yes, we pulled back. .
That didn't close below the previous week's low. .
Then looking at the Dow, you can see we .
dipped down to the lower channel line, SP 500 we talked about earlier. .
The Nasdaq 100 also had an inside week. .
What didn't have an inside week? .
Well, semiconductors. .
The chip sector closed below the previous week's low. .
That's not a bullish sign. .
Now, I've been talking about financial .
services in the banking sector, not an area I actively trade. .
I have a couple of stocks that I follow, .
but I'm really not overly interested in this sector myself. .
But many people are, especially long term .
investors trying to generate dividend income. .
And you can see it was a very quiet week for the Spyder Financials. .
We saw banks trade down and close just above the lower channel line, while the .
regional banks actually generated a weekly sell signal. .
So they're back on a weekly sell signal. .
When we look at the US. .
Insurance companies, they had an inside .
week, and they're holding up much better than the banks themselves. .
Then looking at the Canadian market, .
looking at the TSX Financial Index, it had an inside week. .
Banks, on the other hand, closed below the previous week's low. .
So that's not a good sign. .
Now, for the markets to really turn .
around, we're going to want to see the banks turn around. .
And you can see the Royal Bank is dealing with the summer lows at the moment. .
And you can see we peaked here at the start of the year. .
Banks usually get money coming into them during RSP season. .
And then we made a lower high, a lower high, we made a low and a lower low. .
And now it's going to be really .
interesting for the year end to see if that low can hold or if we break that. .
That's probably not going to be a good sign going forward. .
And then a much weaker looking chart. .
Bank of America again, we want to get these banks back on buy signals. .
That would be a sign that the overall .
market is fairly healthy as opposed to the current market that we're in, where it's .
really just the tech stocks holding the market up. .
Let's finish off this weekend's .
presentation, looking at four tech stocks that we love to follow. .
Two of them are on sell signals, two of them still on buy signals. .
Apple rolled over on Wednesday, continued to move lower on Thursday, and was up ever .
so slightly on Friday, up $0.62. So they tried to fill the open gap. .
You can see we're holding support at 175. .
We traded below it on Thursday. .
If we take out the low and then we'll try to hold, use the August low as support. .
Otherwise we're heading down to 168 75 and then probably 162 50. .
Looking at NVIDIA . .
NVIDIA rolled over on Thursday, generating a sell signal on Friday. .
It was fairly quiet trading. .
We didn't take out Thursday's low, but we still closed lower on the day. .
And then looking at shopify. .
Shopify hit the upper channel line on .
Friday, looking for a close on Monday below 87.02, and then for Tesla. .
Tesla still on a buy signal here. .
Things would change on Monday if Tesla were to close below $241.80. Of course, in .
both cases, if they don't close below those levels on Monday, those lower .
channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily. .
The Shopify one is going to move faster than the Tesla lower channel line will. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation. .
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .