• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, ahead of the inflation numbers that come out at .
• 8:30, things are fairly quiet, not a lot of commitment either way. .
• Of course, once those inflation numbers come out, we expect volatility to expand, .
• have no idea which way the market is going to go after those numbers come out. .
• So far, the VIX is still on a sell signal .
• this week, which is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• That would change on Wednesday if the VIX .
• were to close, not trade, but close above $15.07. Now, how the Fed calculates .
• inflation and all the things they're looking at, I'm not sure how they couldn't .
• determine that inflation is still a major issue and they should raise rates. .
• But the way that they look at the numbers .
• and how they weight things, of course, changes over time. .
• They could see something and just put a .
• different weighting on it than the rest of us would. .
• But when we look at commodity prices, we've got crude oil making a new high .
• yesterday, gasoline up testing the recent high. .
• Even natural gas came back yesterday, and .
• we're looking at the UNG, and it recently made a lower-low. .
• Now we'll have to see if it can break this short term pattern here and make a higher .
• high, which would be short term bullish for natural gas. .
• Now looking at some longer term commodity .
• charts, looking at the bacon, you can see we're up at the highs of 2023. .
• We've got hamburger up at the highs of 2023. .
• We've got cocoa or chocolate up at the highs of 2023. .
• That's a similar situation for underwear or cotton. .
• Then we're looking at frozen concentrated orange juice up at the highs of 2023, and .
• the price of sugar up at the highs of 2023. .
• So all that is very inflationary. .
• Of course, how the Fed looks at it is not .
• the same as how you and I would look at it. .
• Some commodities that are not up at the top of the range for 2023: coffee is .
• actually down near the lows of 2023, and so is the price of lumber. .
• Well, what worked on Tuesday? .
• Well, it was the energy sector on both sides of the border. .
• Looking at individual stocks, the biggest winner on the TSX 60 was Suncor. .
• On the TSX itself, it was Vermilion. .
• Looking at the S&P 500, when we're looking to energy stocks, the big .
• winner was Occidental, followed by Marathon. .
• Marathon had a big reversal day yesterday. .
• If you're trading marathon, I want to sit on my hands for a day and see what happens .
• next, see if we can get another confirming close above the upper channel line. .
• Now, ahead of the energy stocks on the S&P .
• 500, the biggest winner was Zion followed by PNC, followed by Keycorp. .
• Those were the biggest winners on the S&P 500. .
• Now, those big gains were not enough to take the ETF back on a buy signal. .
• We're still waiting for a buy signal for regional banks and banks to join .
• the SPYDR Financial ETF already on a buy signal. .
• That has more to do with broker dealers, but especially the insurance companies, .
• which are trading back up at the recent highs. .
• Looking north of the border, the TSX .
• Financial Index is sitting right on the edge of a new buy signal. .
• Banks moved up yesterday. .
• They're getting pretty close to a buy signal. .
• Then the big winner yesterday was the National Bank, and then we had the Royal .
• Bank both trade up and closed in the channel. .
• So we're one trading day away from a possible buy signal. .
• And just like in the US, insurance stocks are holding up very well north of the .
• border, whether you're looking at Manulife or SunLife. .
• Now, I always talk about Fairfax being .
• Canada's version of Berkshire Hathaway and it is still holding up very well, not .
• looking as good as Berkshire Hathaway itself, which made a new high yesterday. .
• And Berkshire Hathaway is listed as an .
• insurance stock, so that matches up pretty well with the insurance index. .
• Looking at the major index ETF, starting .
• with the iShares for the TSX60, we hit the upper channel line yesterday. .
• So looking for a close on Wednesday above $30.65. Then looking at the NASDAQ 100, .
• trading in the channel yesterday, no change in trend there. .
• Unlike semiconductors, which made a new closing low for this move. .
• Then looking at the DOW still on a sell signal, no change there. .
• We've traded through the upper channel .
• line two days in a row, but have not closed above it. .
• Then looking at the S&P 500, we traded down yesterday still in the channel. .
• We're looking for a close on Wednesday .
• below 4:44.86. Now you can break up the S&P 500 several ways. .
• One way is to look at the equal weighted .
• version, so not giving your stocks like Apple overweighting. .
• Each stock is equally weighted within the index. .
• It is on a sell signal right now. .
• So is the low volatility. .
• So this is 100 stocks out of the S&P 500 with the lowest volatility. .
• They recently made a new low before moving back up into the channel. .
• And then the high beta stocks are also on a sell signal. .
• That has a lot to do with one stock, and that was Apple, which plunged last week. .
• You can see when the ETF rolled over and .
• you can see Apple are rolling over there as well. .
• So Apple was down yesterday. .
• Looking at the rest of the high beta .
• stocks that we follow, we've got Alphabet still on a buy signal, no change there. .
• Amazon having an inside day. .
• Then we saw Meta pull back closing in the channel. .
• We also saw Microsoft close within the channel. .
• No change in trend for NVIDIA had an inside day on Tuesday. .
• And no change in trend for Tesla, which made a new high for this move. .
• And that shows up as a bearish reversal day. .
• But remember, we did not close below the previous day's low, so not overly .
• concerned about that bearish reversal signal just yet. .
• And you can see that we're getting pretty close to getting to that open gap up here, .
• which could certainly be a target, whether it's the bottom or the top. .
• But we may see Tesla trade up to those levels on Wednesday. .
• Last up, let's take a look at what's going on with the hard stuff. .
• Things that if it drops on your foot is going to hurt. .
• Copper traded up into the channel for the .
• second day in a row, so no change in trend there. .
• A small pullback. .
• Gold was down yesterday. .
• Silver was up slightly on Tuesday. .
• It is still stuck to the 20, 23, 43 level, so that's still holding us in check. .
• Then looking at the gold miners in the .
• channel once again, no change in trend for the GDX or the XGD or Silver Miners. .
• No changes in trend from Tuesday's training action. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Normally, I tell you to think about donating blood. .
• If you're in the US right now, there is a crisis going on. .
• There's been a whole bunch of climate disasters over the past month or so. .
• And if you have the time, please consider donating blood. .
• I've heard people complain about the waiting time to donate blood. .
• I don't ever experience that. .
• We make appointments and I've never had any trouble. .
• I've donated over 50 times and I've never .
• once had to wait for more than five minutes from my appointment time. .
• So I don't understand how the system works in the US. .
• I've never had any personal experience with it. .
• But if you are south of the border, please .
• considering donating blood not only for somebody else's wellbeing, but it's .
• important for your own personal wellbeing as well. .
• Have a great day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .