• Good morning, everyone. .
• Welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• Well, last week was an interesting week. .
• It turned out to be an inside week of the .
• previous week, which was also an inside week. .
• So two inside weeks in a row for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq 100. .
• Price activity contracted last week and .
• we're looking for a breakout of not last week's high or low or the previous weeks, .
• but we have to go back three weeks and we're looking for a breakout or a .
• breakdown of that bar to tell us which way the market wants to go next. .
• An inside week, just like an inside day is a pause. .
• It's a time of indecision where the market .
• really doesn't know where it wants to go next. .
• It's looking for a clue and that clue may .
• come this week from the Fed, which meets on Tuesday. .
• Then, of course, the announcement comes out on Wednesday. .
• Now, the commodities, on the other hand, helped the TSX move up. .
• It was up five days in a row last week and .
• traded right back up to previous resistance. .
• You can see that this level has held us in check all year. .
• We were able to trade a slightly above it .
• back in the start of the year and we're going to be looking to see if we can take .
• out the early 2023 highs and that would open up a move up to 21,250 on the TSX. .
• Looking at the VIX, it was down slightly on the week. .
• It's still on a weekly sell signal that is .
• supportive for the market going higher on a long term basis. .
• That would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above .
• $16.70. Now, if you're trading the market on Monday, we're looking for the VIX to .
• close above $14.67. It made a new low on Friday, then .
• it reversed and closed higher on the day back in the channel. .
• We did see some selling in the U. S. .
• Markets on Friday. .
• Now, if the stock market is going to have a major correction in September or .
• October, as these are seasonally weak times for the stock market historically. .
• We're going to need to see the VIX start .
• breaking out above the 200 day moving average. .
• That's what held us in check back in August. .
• So far, we're nowhere near that level. .
• We're still trading below the 100 and 50-day moving averages. .
• The options market is not overly concerned .
• about the stock market going forward at this time. .
• Now, what might not be good for the stock .
• market right now is the US dollar index continues to move higher. .
• We also saw bond yields move up last week. .
• That open gap is not holding us in check any longer. .
• We are now trading above it. .
• The trend for bond yields and interest rates is still pointing higher. .
• Now everybody's expecting the Fed to pause. .
• I'm not sure they should given the fact .
• that inflation is still out of control for a lot of people. .
• Of course, their models do not directly .
• reflect how the consumers have to deal with inflation. .
• But we saw crude oil continue to move up .
• last week up another three and nearly a half %, 3.45 % on the week. .
• We're continuing to move higher on crude oil. .
• Now, the price of gold also moved up last .
• week, just $3.50, but that was enough to help the Canadian stock market. .
• We also saw the price of silver, which reversed on the week, had a bullish .
• reversal week and closed higher on the week. .
• So both of those commodities helped the Canadian stock market moved higher. .
• Now, speaking of inflation, we saw cattle, live cattle make a new high last week. .
• We also saw a new high for cocoa. .
• We also saw a new high for frozen orange juice and for the price of sugar. .
• So it's pretty obvious that some .
• commodity traders haven't got the memo from the Fed to help fight inflation. .
• Now, on the other hand, we traders have .
• been very supportive of the Fed and we made a new loaf for wheat on Friday. .
• Remember when Russia invaded Ukraine, the .
• price of wheat popped dramatically as the world was concerned about the global wheat .
• market being disrupted by the war in Ukraine. .
• All of those fears have seemed to have .
• dissipated and not really an issue at the moment. .
• Now looking at the seasonality chart for .
• the S&P 500, you can see that we historically peak in the middle of the .
• month and sell off going into the end of the month. .
• Did that start on Friday? .
• Well, only time will tell. .
• This week may start out quiet, but it may end rather violently, either to the upside .
• or to the downside, depending on what the Fed does on Wednesday. .
• Now what didn't work last week? .
• Well, in the US market, it was home builders back on a weekly sell signal. .
• We had Biotechs down last week, so they've .
• been on a sell signal for a few months now. .
• Semiconductors have been on a sell signal for over a month. .
• Then we've got industrials on the second week of a sell signal for industrials. .
• What worked? Well, in the Canadian market, it was base .
• metals were up nicely followed by marijuana stocks. .
• Marijuana stocks is not a big component of the Canadian stock market. .
• And then we've got utilities up nicely, .
• almost trading up to the upper channel line. .
• So we don't have far to go to generate a weekly buy signal for utilities. .
• And then we've got information technology, which was up just under one % on the week. .
• Now looking at the energy sector, energy .
• stocks on this side of the border moved up last week. .
• We're stuck here, trapped, holding on to the 17.19 level. .
• We're trying to break out above the high from early 2022. .
• That's holding us in check right now. .
• If we can start breaking out above that .
• high, then 18.75 comes into play for the XEG. .
• Now looking at the XLE in New York, we did .
• make a new high for this move last week before pulling back, just four cents. .
• We're trying to break through the 93.75 .
• level, which is held us in check for in 2022. .
• We got as high as 93.69. So getting pretty close to that 93.75 level, .
• if we can take that out, then $100 does come into play or resistance could do what .
• it's supposed to do, which is hold us in check. .
• This might be the time and place where energy stocks start to top out. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation looking at some numbers for Monday. .
• We've already looked at the VIX. .
• The iShares for the TSX is up five days in a row last week. .
• We need a close blow of $30.56 on Monday. .
• Not expecting that to happen, of course, .
• and that lower channel is going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Well, where did we end the day on Friday? .
• Well, our next price target was $31.25, and we closed at $31.25. .
• Now, if we can move higher from here, then 31.64 is our next price target. .
• Now, the S&P 500 ended Friday on a sell signal. .
• And so we're coming into Monday with a new sell signal for the S&P 500. .
• Things would change on Monday with a close above $448.51 for the SPY. .
• In the premarket this morning, we are trading lower. .
• Looking at our price targets, you can see .
• that 453.13 held us in check in the month of August, and now we're .
• going to look to see if 437.50 can act as support in the month of September. .
• Then looking at the Nasdaq-100, the Triple Qs ended Friday on a sell signal looking .
• for a close on Monday above 376.23. Not expecting that to happen from .
• what we're seeing in the premarket this morning. .
• Now we're starting to move down from 375. .
• We haven't really broken away from it just yet. .
• The high on Friday was 376.32, so we haven't broken away. .
• If we start to break down below the previous week's low, then 359.38 would be .
• our next target to the downside for the triple queues. .
• Then looking at semiconductor, .
• semiconductors are starting to close just below the $200 level. .
• If we take out the August lows, then .
• 187.50 is our next price target for the semiconductor ETF, which is the XSD. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation, expecting to see a .
• little selling at the open at the same time. .
• Commodity prices are moving up slightly on Monday morning. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .