• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. In the premarket this morning, things are .
• fairly quiet, stock index futures are slightly above fair value, crude oil is .
• higher while gold is down another $7 in the premarket. .
• We've got a durable good orders coming out at 8:30 this morning. .
• Then we've got energy inventories coming out later in the morning. .
• Let's start off with a little apology. .
• I've been off for the last couple of days. .
• I've had to take some unscheduled time off. .
• I recently had the Shingles vaccine and it did not agree with me at all. .
• It's put me on my back for a couple of days now. .
• Here we are back at work on Wednesday morning. .
• Now looking at the VIX, unlike the stock market, which is making lower highs and .
• lower lows, the VIX is starting to make higher highs. .
• If we just go back across, we go back into the start of July, we made .
• a high, then a higher high, higher high, and another higher high. .
• Of course, that is bearish for the stock market. .
• We're trying to break away from the 18.75 level. .
• Our next mathematical target is 20.31. .
• If we were to break away from 18.75, we'd .
• also break away from the 200-day moving average. .
• If we continue to move up, that, of .
• course, would be bearish for the stock market. .
• Now, the US dollar index isn't helping the stock market that much at the moment. .
• It made a new high yesterday, and it's .
• gaining strength against not only the Euro, but a lot of other major currencies .
• around the world, including the British pound and the Japanese Yen. .
• Looking at the bond market, the bonds continue to move lower on Tuesday. .
• Bond yields continue to move higher on Tuesday. .
• That, of course, is not good for the stock market. .
• Looking at crude oil, we're coming off a .
• new early warning signal up at the top of the panic zones here. .
• We're trying to break down below 87.50. That hasn't happened yet. .
• We've traded below it, but we haven't closed below it. .
• We're trying to break out above 93.65. If .
• we can do that, then 83.75 would be our next target to the upside. .
• We're trading higher in the premarket this morning, so there's certainly a .
• possibility of making a higher high on Wednesday. .
• Now looking down on crude oil, if we want .
• to see a sell signal here, we need to close below 87.16 on Wednesday. .
• That would give us a new Sell signal for crude oil. .
• And if that were to happen, that, of course, would join natural gas already on .
• a Sell signal starting to break down below $2.93. Our next mathematical target would .
• take us back down to the lows from early June down at .
• 2.73. And if we want to buy signal and natural gas, we need to close on Wednesday .
• above $2.99. Looking at the metals, Copper made a new closing low yesterday. .
• We've got a new closing low for this move for gold. .
• It's taken up the earlier September low, .
• and now we're looking to see if we can find support at the August low. .
• Silver holding up a lot better than gold .
• at the moment, but it is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
• Now, month end is just ahead of us, and of .
• course, that has a bullish bias for the stock market. .
• But in a down market, that doesn't .
• guarantee that we're going to close higher. .
• It can often just help take off some of .
• the downward pressure that we're seeing during a down market. .
• Now, looking at the DOW itself, it has broken down below the August lows, so has .
• the S&P 500 heading towards our next target of 421.88 on the SPY. .
• Then looking at the QQQ's, they're .
• starting to break down below the August lows. .
• Our next mathematical target is 351.56. .
• Now, the semiconductors held up fairly well yesterday. .
• They were down nearly 2 % but didn't take out the recent low. .
• They've certainly taken out the August lows but there's a lot of sectors that .
• have also done that and are looking fairly weak. .
• Even the Russell 2000 or the MicroCaps, they broke down quite a while ago. .
• Then when we look at consumer staples or retail or real estate or transports, .
• they've all broken down below the August lows. .
• Much of the market is slipping away at the moment. .
• Can we get a bounce here going into month end? .
• Well, if we do get a bounce, it probably .
• won't be enough to give us any new daily buy signals. .
• Now moving over to the Canadian market, wasn't that long ago we were looking to .
• see if we were going to take out the summer highs, but that quickly reversed. .
• Now we've taken out the summer lows .
• for the TSX, the TSX-60 for mid caps, small caps and micro caps. .
• The August lows are no longer in play. .
• Then looking at some of the sectors, energy is still holding up fairly well. .
• It traded up into the channel. .
• I saw some energy buy signals for .
• individual stocks yesterday, financials heading down with the US market. .
• We're also seeing a weakness in the gold sector, of course, and global mining or .
• the base metals all were down yesterday making new lows. .
• We also saw a new low for industrials .
• and a new low for this move for the infotech sector. .
• You can see we're just coming right down to the August lows. .
• We'll have to see if we can find some support there. .
• Then trading right through the August lows .
• is the real estate sector and telecoms also have traded through the August Lowe. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Just a quick reminder and a prod. .
• If you're short the market right now or you're along the bear ETFs, .
• please make sure you take some money off the table and lock in some profits. .
• We don't know when exactly the market is .
• going to turn around or what the catalyst is going to be. .
• I have absolutely no guarantee. .
• There's no crystal ball that tells us that .
• the market is going to head sharply lower from here. .
• You don't need to liquidate a position. .
• There's no reason to abandon a short .
• positionposition or to abandon a long, bare ETF position. .
• But it is important to systematically take money off the table as we go. .
• That's all I wanted to say this morning. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice, we'll hopefully be on Thursday morning. .