• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• Well, this is the last trading day of the month, and what do you know? .
• The futures are trading higher this morning. .
• We've got stock index futures and commodities trading up in the premarket. .
• We do have economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could certainly .
• change the overall direction of the market. .
• But of course, month end usually has a .
• bullish bias to it, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now. .
• Now, the stock markets traded higher on Thursday, and they got a little support .
• from the US dollar index that had a small pullback on Thursday. .
• We also saw a small pullback for bond .
• yields after making a new high, and then we had a small pullback in crude oil. .
• Crude oil was down $1.71 yesterday. .
• It's up a dollar last time I checked in the premarket. .
• So not looking for a sell signal for crude oil on Friday. .
• Now looking at the seasonality chart for the S&P 500, we are expecting buying into .
• the middle of September and then selling going into the end of September. .
• That's pretty much what we saw. .
• Then we're looking for some buying into the first week of October. .
• That may have started yesterday, and then additional selling and possibly a .
• lower low in October before the market starts to move up into the end of year .
• seasonality trend that takes us higher into year end. .
• Now, just a different version of this chart. .
• This chart is up to date, whereas this one is from 1990 to 2009. .
• The reason I want to show you this .
• is that the last 13 years or so has really smoothed out this .
• chart and has taken a lot of the emphasis off weakness in October. .
• We used to fear October a lot more than we .
• feared September, and now they're basically equal. .
• This chart doesn't even include the crash of '87, which happened in October. .
• Previously, the market was a lot more concerned about October than it is today. .
• Well, hopefully, that'll be the case this year. .
• The sell in May and go away crowd, of .
• course, they're going to sell on May first and come back on November first. .
• Why are they coming back on November first? .
• Well, seasonally, the period from November to the end of the .
• year is very strong and we certainly want to participate in that when the market .
• does turn around and that may have started yesterday. .
• We'll just have to wait and see how much follow through to the upside we get. .
• Now, the VIX made a new high on Wednesday, .
• pulled back on Thursday, closed below the previous days low. .
• So that's bearish for the VIX and bullish for the stock market. .
• We don't have the VIX back on a sell signal just yet. .
• We don't have the VIX below the Fly Paper channel just yet. .
• But this is the time and place where things like this could start. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• Now looking at the major US index ETF .
• starting with the Dow, we did close above the previous day's high for the Dow, but .
• the S&P 500 and Nasdaq certainly did, as did the Russell 2000. .
• There is some bullishness out there, not .
• enough to start a new trend, but enough to get people's attention on Thursday. .
• Microcaps also traded up and closed above the previous day's high. .
• This could be the making of a bottom for the market? .
• Only time will tell. .
• Now, retail stocks were the big winners in the US on Thursday. .
• Oddly enough, a couple of big retailers made 52-week lows yesterday. .
• We'll take a look at that in a minute. .
• Utilities were the big losers in the US. .
• What didn't work and what worked on the Dow? .
• Well, the big winner on the Dow was Intel followed by Caterpillar. .
• Caterpillar needs a close above 278.47 to give us a buy signal on Friday. .
• You can see we held the August lows for .
• Caterpillar, so that could be bullish going forward. .
• Then looking at what didn't work on the .
• Dow, well, Boeing was the biggest loser followed by IBM. .
• Then making 52-week lows yesterday, .
• Advanced Auto Parts continues to drift lower day after day. .
• Then we also saw a Dollar General and .
• target make 52-week lows, even though retail was the big winner on Thursday. .
• Then just a stock, you call it Chewy or call it Pets. .
• Com. They both look pretty similar. .
• And if you haven't been in the market for a long time, pets. .
• Com was one of those big stocks that blew .
• up during the dot com bubble and crashed and burned and went away. .
• And of course, Chewy could be continuing that tradition today. .
• Now, Newmont also made a new 52-week low yesterday, as did some other gold stocks. .
• Looking at the Canadian market, not as .
• much enthusiasm as we saw in the US market. .
• The TSX had an inside day, little more strength for the TSX 60. .
• Then mid caps, small caps, and micro caps were all up on the day, but not a major .
• trend change for any of those areas of the market. .
• Now, base metals was the big winner on .
• Thursday, and the big loser was marijuana stocks. .
• The gold stocks ended the day after making .
• a new low, ended the day up a penny, looking at the iShare's global gold ETF. .
• Then energy stocks ended the day up three cents after making a new high. .
• They're still on a buy signal. .
• Now, the big winner on Thursday was Teck, which is back on a buy signal followed by .
• CCL Industries, which needs a close $57.41 on Friday to generate a buy signal. .
• A new low for this move for TC Energy and then Algonquin Power had another bad day. .
• It made a 52-week low on Thursday. .
• B2Gold, when I mentioned, Newmont. .
• Previously, Newmont in Canada also made a new low yesterday. .
• B2gold made a 52-week low on Thursday. .
• Now, the TD Bank appears to still be the strongest Canadian bank, while Bank of .
• Nova Scotia continues to look like the weakest Canadian bank. .
• Right now it is holding its August lows, .
• so that could be a good thing going forward. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• Shopify made a new low yesterday. .
• It's holding 6,875. .
• If that breaks, our next mathematical .
• target is 6,250, but you'll see that the bottom of the open gap is just above that. .
• That could also act as a price magnet if Shopify starts breaking down below 6,875. .
• Let's finish off with a quick look at the major telecom stocks. .
• They all had inside days on Thursdays after making new lows on Wednesdays. .
• So BCE, Rogers, and TELLUS all looking pretty similar at the moment. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Enjoy your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning. .