• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. Hope you're having a wonderful weekend. .
• Very nice weather up here this weekend. .
• Let's start off with a little housekeeping. .
• This is probably going to be my last .
• video that I'm going to be doing on Saturday or Sundays. .
• I've got some new partnerships starting up .
• and I'm going to be doing regular Monday to Friday videos. .
• For many years, I didn't do a Monday video because I did a Sunday video. .
• But to fit in with everybody's publishing .
• schedules, I will be doing Monday videos from now on. .
• Now, some people are asking about how our .
• dog, Ursha, is doing and it's been three years since we adopted her. .
• First of all, we fostered her, then we .
• adopted her and she's four years old now and she's doing very well. .
• So thank you very much for everyone who is asking about her. .
• Now, let's start off looking at the seasonality chart for the S&P 500. .
• We were looking for buying into the middle .
• of September and then selling into the end of the month. .
• We didn't quite get that. .
• We certainly started off on the right foot, but quickly that started to fail. .
• We had one day where we closed above the .
• upper channel line that quickly reversed and we've been heading lower ever since. .
• Our mathematical target was 421.88 on both .
• the daily and weekly chart and we traded right down to that. .
• In fact, we got it as close as less than .
• 50 cents away from our price target before the market reversed on Wednesday and .
• started to move back up on Thursday and Friday. .
• Friday ended on a negative note, but it .
• did just start to trade above Thursday's high. .
• Now, the US government is not .
• shutting down this weekend and so we could see a relief rally on Monday. .
• If we do start to move up, you can see .
• we're so far finding support at the 200-day moving average. .
• The 50-day moving or the 100-day moving average is not that far above us. .
• You can see we're projecting up to that .
• level and then a reversal back down to make lower lows. .
• We do have other targets on the way back up. .
• The bottom of the open gap is at 435.97 for the SPY. .
• Of course, we've got the August lows at 433.01. Then our next mathematical target .
• is 437.50. That doesn't take us all the way up to fill the gap. .
• If we are heading up in that area, then .
• the top of the open gap is just above the 437.50 level. .
• Of course, we'll watch that closely .
• depending on what the market does going forward. .
• Now, the market started to fall apart when Apple started to fall apart. .
• It took some time for some of those other .
• tech stocks to roll over, but it was really Apple that started the move down. .
• On Thursday, it made a new low. .
• On Friday, it closed higher, but only by 52 cents. .
• We'll be keeping an eye on Apple. .
• If the market wants to go up on Monday, a .
• close above $176.15 would give us a new buy signal for Apple. .
• Now, remember, in the month of September, .
• we started off with a wide bar and then we had two inside weeks in a row. .
• An inside week and then an inside week of an inside week. .
• Price action was starting to contract and we were looking for expansion either .
• to the upside or to the downside and it expanded to the downside. .
• I don't think that's going to correct itself very quickly, but we'll just have .
• to keep an eye on which way the market goes next. .
• Now, the VIX is still on a weekly buy .
• signal that, of course, is negative for stocks. .
• Things would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close below $13.88. .
• If you're watching the market on Monday, we traded all the way down to the lower .
• channel line on Friday before reversing and actually closing higher on the day. .
• On Monday, if the VIX were to close below .
• $15.74, that would be supportive for higher stock prices across the board. .
• You can see we didn't make it too much .
• higher than the 18.75 level, found resistance up there. .
• We'll be watching to see if we can take .
• out that recent high going forward in the month of October. .
• Now, the US dollar index moved up, moved up to our next weekly price target of .
• 106.25. On the daily chart, we dipped into the channel on Friday before reversing. .
• On Monday, a close on the US dollar index below 105.41 would give us a sell signal, .
• and that would probably be supportive for higher stock prices at this time. .
• Now, bonds continue to move lower this week. .
• Bond yields continue to move higher. .
• That was one of the reasons we're seeing downward pressure on the stock market. .
• Now, while bond yields were going up, utilities were continuing to decline. .
• In the US, the SPDR Utility index closed down 6.89% on the TSX, the iShares Utility .
• ETF closed down 6.03 %, making new lows for this move in both cases. .
• Now, the TSX has had a terrible year. .
• It's been in a tight range. .
• It's currently up less than 1 % for the year. .
• So far, it's traded between these two .
• levels all year, and we've continued to make lower highs. .
• We made a high back here, then a lower .
• high, then a lower high, and then recently, we made another lower high. .
• That is all bearish. .
• Now we're looking to see if we start to make lower lows. .
• So far support is holding at 19,375. .
• That is holding us in check. .
• We'll just have to see if we take out this week's low this week. .
• Now, the seasonality chart for the TSX .
• puts more emphasis on October to the downside than September. .
• September, we're supposed to see buying .
• into the middle of the month, then selling into the end, and continued selling into .
• October before the market starts to reverse and head up. .
• That's what we're looking for, is this big .
• end-of-year rally to start at some point, and it certainly didn't start on Friday. .
• Now looking at crude oil, crude oil made a new high for this move this week and ended .
• the week just slightly higher up 45 cents on the week. .
• The seasonality for crude oil doesn't look .
• good from the middle of October on, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. .
• It didn't peak at the end of June this year. .
• In fact, that's when the rally really started. .
• The seasonal tendency is we peak in the .
• middle of October and head down into early December. .
• Then looking at natural gas, it's been dead all year. .
• I certainly couldn't predict this going .
• into 2023, but we've been trading up, above and below the 3.13 level all year. .
• If we're really going to see things change .
• going forward, we need to see natural gas start breaking out above 3.40. .
• The seasonality for natural gas looks pretty good from here on. .
• You can see that we do dip into October, but then we actually make a higher high, a .
• higher low, then a higher high into the end of November. .
• From now to the end of November, things .
• could be good for natural gas if the seasonal tendencies start to kick in. .
• Then after the end of November, it looks like we get selling going into year end. .
• We'll just have to keep an eye on that. .
• Now, we do have early warning signals on .
• the weekly charts for energy stocks on both sides of the border. .
• Looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, we are still looking okay here. .
• We did trade below the previous week's low. .
• Last week, we actually closed below the previous week's low, which is bearish. .
• Then this week, we continue to trade .
• below, but we came back going into the end of the week and ended the week up 2.69%. .
• Looking at the energy stocks in the US, there's the SPDR Energy ETF. .
• We got an early warning signal up there. .
• Again, three weeks ago, we peaked. .
• The next week, we closed below the previous week's low. .
• This week was actually an inside week for energy stocks in the US. .
• In the US, in the end of the week, up 1.21%. I think time is running out for the .
• energy sectors on both sides of the border. .
• If we go back and look at the TSX, the TSX has traded up to the highs from late 2022. .
• So far, those highs are holding us in check. .
• Then looking at the US .
• energy sector, we're trading up to the highs from about the same time period, and .
• those highs are currently holding us in check. .
• It looks to me like the run for the energy .
• sector is probably going to come to an end in the next couple of weeks. .
• Then looking at the price of gold, it was .
• down $79.50 on the week, making a new low for this move, starting to dip below 1875. .
• On our weekly chart, our next price .
• target, if we start to break away from 1875, is 1750. .
• Then looking at the seasonality of gold, .
• it looks weak going into the first week of October. .
• Then from here into the start of December should be pretty good. .
• But so far, we have no evidence that the .
• market has started to turn around just yet. .
• Now, energy stocks on both sides of the .
• border have been weak for most of this year. .
• Looking at the GDX, we had a made a new low on Friday. .
• Looking at the XGD, we also made a new low for this move. .
• We've been on cell signals in both sides of the border for quite a while now. .
• Okay, that's all I wanted to cover today. .
• I'll be back in the morning and we'll look at some more daily charts. .
• We'll look at the most actively traded .
• stocks on both sides of the border and take it from there. .
• Enjoy the rest of your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice, of course, is going to be on Monday morning. .