Good morning, everyone. .
Welcome to Monday morning. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from .TheUpTrend.com In the premarket this .
morning, stock index futures and crude oil are above fair value. .
We're seeing a little pullback in gold this morning. .
The buying that we're going to see in the .
premarket this morning is not going to erase the selling we saw on Friday. .
We may actually see an inside day on Monday. .
Now, the VIX ended the week up over 10 %. .
This coming Friday, we're looking for a .
close below $14.42 to give us a weekly sell signal for the VIX. .
That, of course, would be supportive for long term stock gains. .
Looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see the huge move we had on Friday and .
back on a buy signal that's negative for stocks. .
That would change on Monday if the VIX were to close below $16.79. .
Looking at the daily fly paper channel chart for the VIX, you can see that it .
looks like we put in a higher low on Thursday. .
We'll just have to wait and see if that holds this week. .
And then we came back up to the previous high. .
So now we're looking to see if we can make a higher high. .
A higher low for the VIX and a higher high .
for the VIX would certainly be a bearish sign for the overall stock market. .
Now looking at the weekly charts from last week, the biggest loser on the week was .
Semiconductors followed by Biotechs and Pharmaceuticals. .
Those were the biggest areas of weakness last week. .
Looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, we were down 1.58 % last week. .
Now we have been trading below the FlyPaper channel for quite a while now. .
We've been in a range and making a series .
of lower highs over the last couple of years. .
If we go back to the end of 2021, we put in a lower high, a lower high. .
And then in 2023, we put in a lower high. .
And by just about a dollar, we put in another lower high during the summer. .
So a series of lower highs for the Russell 2000. .
And you can see in the last 18 months, we drove up to the 200 level and pulled back. .
We also went down to the 162.50 level a .
couple of times, and that acted as support. .
So going forward, if we want to see a bull market in the stock market, we need the .
Russell 2000 to start breaking out above 200. .
And if we're going to see a bear market .
continue, then we want to see the Russell 2000 break down below the 162.50 level. .
And of course, we're talking about the IWM ETF. .
Now, Microcap stocks have already broken down and are making lower lows and we're .
trading back to levels we haven't seen since late 2020. .
And so we're making a series of lower highs and lower lows. .
That is also true for the Venture Exchange, which has fallen even harder .
and is trading back at levels that we haven't seen since early 2020. .
Now, looking at a chart of US or Canadian .
microcaps, it's a pretty easy indicator of the overall mood of the stock market. .
You've probably heard me say this many times before, but when microcap stocks are .
trending higher, the stock market is having a lot more fun and a lot more .
people are making money in the stock market. .
When microcap stocks are trending lower, .
that means investors are on the defensive and they're not willing to take money away .
from big cap safe stocks to small cap riskier stocks. .
Of course, the small cap riskier stocks have much greater potential to the upside. .
But we know that over the last couple of .
years, investors have not been willing to go after those Small cap Microcap stocks. .
Until they do, it's going to be very hard to make money in the stock market. .
Now you've heard the term been there, done that. .
Well, Lawrence McDonald posted that where .
we closed on Friday on the S&P 500 is exactly where we closed 819 days ago. .
We haven't really made any major gains since then. .
We've certainly traded above that level and traded below it. .
This is one of the reasons we ask you to take profits off the table along the way .
because sometimes the stock market just wants to trade sideways. .
Now, the US dollar index traded lower last week and then ended the .
week closing higher, but not above the previous week's high. .
Things slowing down for the US dollar index. .
Bonds are reversed. .
They made a load on the previous week and then closed higher last week. .
With bonds moving higher, we saw bond yields pulling back. .
We'll have to see if that trend is extended this week. .
That could help the stock market. .
The price of gold had a big up week, but .
we shouldn't get too excited because we're just back to where we were two weeks ago. .
No major gains made, losses recovered, but no major gains from two weeks ago. .
We're looking for a close this coming .
Friday above $1,958.10 to give us a new buy signal for gold. .
For silver, we're looking for close this coming Friday above .
$24.07. Now at the same time, gold and silver were moving higher, copper moved .
lower, closed lower on the week, did not take out the previous week's low. .
But as a global economic barometer, it's .
certainly not going in the right direction right now. .
Crude oil had an inside week closing up at .
the upper channel line, so no change in trend for crude oil. .
Looking at the major index ETFs for Monday, we're dipping into the channel for .
the iSharifs for the TSX-60, looking for a close on Monday below 29:33. .
From what we're seeing in the premarket .
this morning, I'm not overly concerned about sell signals on Monday. .
The Dow Diamonds closed in the channel, the SPY closed in the channel and the .
Triple Qs all closed in the channel on Friday. .
Now, what really didn't work on Friday was .
the Semiconductors down to 4.22 % and back on a daily sell signal. .
Let's finish off looking at a couple of market movers in the premarket. .
Now, Pfizer is in the news this morning. .
It's trading lower in the pre-market. .
You really need to follow stocks the .
market loves and ignore or short stocks the market hates. .
How do we know that the market hates Pfizer? .
Well, it's been on a weekly sell signal since the end of 2022. .
The pros have given up control a long time ago and do not look like they're .
interested in buying this stock at the present time. .
So while for other stocks that the market .
loves, investors are going to buy every buy signal that comes up. .
When you're looking at a stock like .
Pfizer, it's more a matter that investors are going to short every sell signal for .
Pfizer that comes up, and they're going to continue to try to drive the stock lower. .
Now, a stock that this market still loves is Tesla. .
Tesla closed just below the lower channel .
on Friday, giving us a new daily sell signal. .
It is trading lower again in the premarket this morning. .
Now we talked about Tesla trading into a triangle and it drove up to the top of .
that triangle last week and now is moving lower. .
So that resistance is still holding Tesla in check. .
What's not bullish here is we could be .
putting in a lower high and that may be bearish for Tesla going forward. .
Another stock that's putting in a lower high right now is Apple. .
And Apple is still on a buy signal here. .
It's trading lower in the premarket, as is Invidea. .
Invidea is also trading down the .
premarket, not enough to give us a daily sell signal just yet. .
That would happen on Monday with a close .
below 444.15. It looks like we may have put in a lower high on Thursday. .
We'll have to see if that lower high holds us in check this week. .
If that is a new lower high, then that is .
going to be bearish for the stock market going forward. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
Have a great day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .