• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value. .
• DOW futures currently up 100 points. .
• We've got commodities mixed with crude oil slightly higher, while gold is down .
• another $10 in the premarket on Tuesday morning. .
• Well, this is the average investor right .
• now just sitting on the edge, wondering if they should be panic sellers. .
• We are down at support at the moment and .
• we're looking to see if we can hold that support. .
• Now, the most significant thing to happen .
• on Monday was probably Bill Ackman saying that he covered his short positions in US .
• bonds, and that put a bit into bonds yesterday as it may potentially mark the .
• bottom for bonds and the top for bond yields. .
• Now, bond yields in the premarket this morning are trading higher. .
• We're not seeing fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning. .
• That, of course, could change over time. .
• Looking at the VIX, we made a new high for .
• the VIX before pulling back and actually closing lower on the day by 6.17 %. .
• We are still closing above the upper channel line. .
• On Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $17.71. Of .
• course, a sell signal in the VIX is positive for the stock market as it tells .
• us that options traders are starting to get bullish on the overall stock market. .
• Now, the Dow traded down yesterday and closed near the lower of the day. .
• That had a lot to do with Intel and Chevron. .
• The DOW itself is not the most followed ETF. .
• It is not the most followed product on Wall Street. .
• The media loves the DOW. .
• The public knows what the DOW is. .
• Of course, it's the oldest index in North America, but the stock market itself, the .
• institutions, the pros, they do not follow the DOW or care about it. .
• I can show you that in several ways. .
• The first way to see it is just to look at the volumes and the DOW diamonds, which .
• we're showing here, was the 97th most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday. .
• If you include the 2X and 3X ETFs, it was .
• the 129th most actively traded ETF in the United States. .
• What does the market watch? .
• Well, they watched the S&P 500, which actually made a new low on Monday. .
• We recently put in a lower high. .
• Now we're putting in a lower low. .
• We didn't close below the previous low, but we closed at the previous low. .
• When you look at the most actively traded ETFs in the US, and not only the volume, .
• but the dollar, the amount that it's actually trading at. .
• So if you multiply the volume times the .
• closing price, here is where all the money is. .
• It's in the SPY, it's in the Triple Qs, it's in the IWM, and it's in the TLT. .
• Those are the four biggest ETFs .
• trading in the United States right now, even when you include the 2X and 3X ETFs. .
• Now, if we start breaking down below yesterday's low and breaking away from the .
• 421.88 level, and you can see we're still attached to that. .
• If we start breaking down, it wouldn't be .
• surprising if we move down to the 406.25 level and even down to 400 dollars. .
• That has not started yet. Where there's hope? .
• Well, there's hope in the Nasdaq, which .
• did not break down below the September low. .
• So that is still in place. .
• We did make a lower low yesterday, but we did not break down below the 351.56 level. .
• So the market is sitting right on the edge .
• there, hoping that we can hold yesterday's low on Tuesday. .
• Now, semiconductors did make a new low .
• yesterday, and a lot of symbols made new 52-week lows on Monday. .
• We'll take a look at that in a minute. .
• The at TSX continued to move lower on .
• Monday, but did not retest the recent low just yet. .
• We'll have to hope that that does not happen. .
• Now, talking about 52 week lows, we brought this up last week, and we were .
• looking at 26 new highs on the NYSE followed by 482 new lows. .
• That has expanded and we made a new high for the number of 52 week lows on Monday. .
• That is also true in Canada, where yesterday in the Canadian market, we had .
• 8 new 52 week highs followed by 220 new 52 week lows. .
• Now, the US dollar index came back down to the recent low. .
• The pros are starting to give up control on the US dollar index. .
• That move in rates yesterday and bond .
• prices affected the US dollar and money may be coming out of the US dollar. .
• That could be bullish for the stock market going forward. .
• Now, when we look at this particular .
• chart, you'll notice that the public line is fairly flat. .
• The reason for that is there's not a lot .
• of the public moving the US dollar index around. .
• It's mostly banks, central banks, corporations, institutions. .
• Those are the ones that are moving the US dollar index around. .
• It has very little to do with the public. .
• So if you're looking at different charts and the public line is basically flat, .
• that is telling you that the public does not really have much sway in that .
• particular market, and certainly for the US dollar index, that is true. .
• Now looking at bond yields, we saw the TLT move up yesterday over 1%. .
• That was in the news yesterday because .
• the volume was almost double the average daily volume. .
• So a lot of people listening to what Bill Ackman said and getting back in there .
• buying bonds, the pros are nowhere near taking control. .
• And last time we got a little buy signal. .
• Again, the pros were nowhere near control. .
• So it's going to take a while for the bond .
• market to sort itself out if it wants to start moving higher from here. .
• And looking at the 10-year bond, it moved .
• up into the channel yesterday, not enough, of course, to give us a buy signal, and .
• the yield came down to the upper channel line. .
• Again, not enough to give us a sell signal. .
• In the premarket this morning, it's actually moving up. .
• We're not seeing a lot of fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning. .
• Looking at commodities and we'll look at .
• the major commodity ETFs trading in the US. .
• The USO pulled back into the channel yesterday. .
• For crude oil to give us a sell signal on Tuesday, we're looking for a close below .
• $77.72. In the premarket, we are trading higher, so we're not expecting a sell .
• signal on Tuesday from the information we have today. .
• Gasoline pulled back to the upper channel line on Monday. .
• You can see the big sell off after the summer driving season ended .
• and we're seeing if we can hold a buy signal for any longer than one week. .
• A close below $64.24 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. .
• Not expecting that to happen. .
• Again, no joy for natural gas, still on a .
• cell signal here trying to hold the 6.80 level on the UNG. .
• Then moving over to metals, the GLD moved .
• up to resistance at 184.38 and has started to pull back. .
• You can see that's where we capped off back in July. .
• Looking at palladium, no joy there. .
• We need to close above 105.87 on Tuesday. .
• Platinum is still on a buy signal, not going anywhere at the moment. .
• And Silver, Silver ran up to the September high and started to pull back. .
• We're trying to get up to 21.88, which .
• would be up at the bottom of that open gap from August, but so far, no joy. .
• So that is a very bearish sign for the .
• metals market to see silver pull back and not able to make a higher high. .
• Looking at big cap tech stocks, and this is where a lot of the activity was on .
• Monday, we saw NVIDIA up over 3%, nearly 4% on the day. .
• And the reason for that was NVIDIA .
• announced that they were going to start making computer CPUs. .
• And of course, whose market is that? .
• Well, it's Intels and it's AMDs. .
• And both of those stocks pulled back .
• pulling the SOX index and semiconductor ETFs lower on Monday. .
• We haven't talked about the ARK products recently and the ARK Innovation ETF made a .
• new low yesterday, getting right down to the bottom of our .
• daily projected trading range, which is 34.38. That's the bottom of the range. .
• Of course, it has traded below that before. .
• We'll have to see if we can get some money flow back into the AR .
• K Innovations ETF before we hit the bottom of the projected trading range. .
• Now, just like the Nasdaq-100, the TSX .
• Infotech Index is also holding recent support. .
• Unfortunately, BlackBerry made a new low yesterday. .
• Remember, BlackBerry gapped lower and then moved back up to fill that gap. .
• I really thought that investors would hate .
• that move and that's exactly what happened. .
• Blackberry has been punished ever since. .
• Looking at the light speed, it is holding the recent low as well. .
• And so is Shopify. .
• Shopify still holding the 68.75 level. .
• If that breaks down, 62.50 would be our next target to the downside. .
• Of course, we have an open gap back there to the left. .
• So if you're a Shopify trader, Shopify investor, you know where that gap is, you .
• know what the bottom is, you know what the top is. .
• And we've been trading in the gap but have not got down to the bottom so far. .
• Then last up, Tesla. .
• Tesla made a new low for this move .
• yesterday before we're covering and closing up nine cents on the day. .
• So that's something for Tesla investors to be happy about. .
• But unfortunately, at the same time, we .
• made a lower low on Monday, and of course, that is bearish. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• We are getting closer to month end, which may help stabilize the market. .
• We're still a ways away from that, but it is coming up. .
• So just keep that in the back of your mind .
• that the month end is coming up, and that usually has a bullish bias for the market. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .