• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from the theUpTrend.com. In the premarket this .
• morning, things are fairly mixed and they're also fairly quiet. .
• We've got Dow futures up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading slightly lower. .
• Commodities are flat, bond yields are .
• flat, so not a lot going on Wednesday morning. .
• Now, the stock index futures, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq are trading lower. .
• A couple of stocks that are already on sell signals are trading down. .
• We've got alphabet and Meta are trading lower. .
• They probably have the biggest effect on premarket activity. .
• Now, we're going to do a little chart .
• school this morning, and we'll start off looking at the US market. .
• Now, as we always do, we try to start off looking at the VIX. .
• And the VIX is one day away from a new .
• high, traded back into the channel yesterday. .
• A close below $17.96 would probably be the first sign that something new is happening .
• on the bullish side of the overall stock market. .
• Of course, we're going to need to get down .
• below the bottom of the Flypaper Channel before things start to really clear up. .
• Looking at the VIX for the Nasdaq, it .
• traded right through the lower channel line yesterday, and we do expect the .
• Nasdaq to probably lead us into the year end rally. .
• That, of course, has not started yet. .
• Then the Russell 2000, again, we're on a .
• buy signal here that's negative for stocks. .
• That, of course, could start to change if .
• the VIX for the Russell were to close below $22.20 events on Wednesday. .
• Now, yesterday, I spent some time pooh-pooling the DOW. .
• Of course, we use the DOW because it's a baseline. .
• You're in the car, you turn on the radio, if they're going to give you any .
• information about the stock market on your normal radio station, not a business radio .
• station, but a normal radio station, they're going to lead off with the DOW. .
• It's the easiest way to keep track of what .
• the overall stock market is doing or the mood of the stock market. .
• Two things I see on this chart. .
• Well, the bullish note, we did not break .
• down below the recent low, so that's bullish. .
• On a neutral note, we traded up yesterday, .
• we did not close above the previous day's high. .
• So that was a fairly neutral day. .
• Even though the DOW was up over 200 points, it doesn't really mean very much. .
• There's daily volatility. .
• The stock market swings back and forth continuously. .
• What we're looking for here is the start of a trend. .
• And yesterday did not indicate a start of a new trend. .
• Now, I may talk about what the DOW is doing in the premarket, but I'm probably .
• never going to show a DOW chart in the presentation. .
• That's also true for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, and even the TSX. .
• I rarely show those charts and the reason for it is nobody's trading those. .
• They're trading the corresponding ETF such as the DOW Diamonds. .
• It's important that you make all your .
• decisions based on what the individual ETFs are doing or the individual stocks, .
• not the corresponding index or futures contract. .
• Those can be out of sync, especially when you're looking at commodities, the .
• price of gold, the price of crude oil can go up. .
• But at the same time, if the stock market does not want stocks right now, they can .
• push down the corresponding ETFs and stocks in those sectors. .
• When we're looking at something such as the DOW Diamonds, traders can front-run .
• the market with the ETFs, and that can be a good and a bad thing. .
• If Chairman Powell is speaking this afternoon investors have a hunch .
• that he's going to say something bullish for the stock market, they can go in and .
• buy the DOW Diamonds and it can move up much faster than the index itself. .
• That can be good for you. .
• You can take your ETF up to the next price target fairly quickly. .
• On the downside, if they get overly .
• bearish, they can run down the DOW Diamonds ahead of the index. .
• And so while there's an underlying correspondence to it, investors can pay .
• whatever they want for these ETFs or corresponding stocks. .
• Just because the DOW is up 10 points .
• doesn't mean that investors can't pay a lot more for the DOW Diamonds. .
• So that is true for stocks. .
• It's also true for commodities. .
• If you're out driving in the car, you turn .
• on the news, they may mention what the DOW is doing. .
• They may mention what the price of gold and the price of oil are doing and they .
• won't talk about the individual stocks or ETFs that correspond with those. .
• Yeah, it's a good guide. .
• I know that 99% of the people watching this video are not going to be actively .
• trading the price of gold, especially the futures contract. .
• They may be trading stocks. .
• They may be trading the GDL, .
• but they're certainly not actively trading the futures contracts. .
• Just be aware, there's a separation. .
• You need to just focus on the individual items that you're actually trading. .
• Not following, but trading. .
• The GDX is another one. .
• It's the major gold and silver index in the US. .
• We can watch it, we can set price targets, but nobody's actually trading it. .
• The fact that it went up to 18.75 is a .
• good indication, but what are people actually trading? .
• Now, we can look at individual stocks. .
• It's hard to do because there's so many gold stocks out there. .
• If I'm going to look at a gold stock in .
• the presentation, I'm probably going to look at Barrick or one of the big cap ones .
• because that's going to cover the most people watching the video. .
• Barrick's been nice to us lately. .
• It ran up to 21.88. You got to take some profits. .
• It ran up to 23.44, got two cents higher. .
• If you had an order in around there, it got filled. .
• Now you're sitting with a partial position. .
• You're looking for a breakdown on .
• Wednesday below 21.63. If that doesn't happen, of course, the .
• lower chain line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• What are people trading? .
• Well, the majority of people investing in .
• the gold and silver market are probably using the major ETFs. .
• That's why we follow the GDX. .
• Gdx ran up to our next price target. .
• It started to pull back. .
• We're looking to get kicked out after taking profits. .
• Then north of the border, of course, the .
• XGD is one of the most popular ETFs out there. .
• Again, we've had a chance to take money off the table. .
• It didn't get as high as 17.97. If you had .
• an order and just below that, it got filled. .
• Congratulations. .
• When we look at this particular ETF, we've had a couple of bearish reversal signals. .
• That should be a warning that this is the .
• time and place to expect the market to pull back. .
• There's no guarantee. There's no guarantee that the early .
• warning signal on the panic zone chart, which just went off. .
• There's no guarantee that that's going to pull the market down. .
• But if we look and see what it's done recently, it's a pretty good indication .
• that this is the time and place for the market to start to pull back. .
• Now, continuing to look at the US market, instead of looking at the S&P 500 Index .
• itself, we're looking at the ETF, which is the most popular ETF in the world. .
• You can see that we recently made a lower-low on a Monday. .
• That's a bear sign. .
• Didn't close below it, but we did make a lower-low. .
• Again, it's a pattern of lower highs, lower lows. .
• The Nasdaq, which is looking a little more bullish because we did hold that low. .
• But again, in both cases, do we close above the previous day's high? .
• No, we didn't. No, we didn't. .
• We closed at the previous day's high. .
• Yesterday was a fairly neutral day for the overall market. .
• Now, taking a broader look at the US stock .
• market and farther away from those big cap tech stocks, you've got the Russell 2000. .
• This is an incredibly popular US ETF. You can .
• see we made a new low on Monday, on .
• Tuesday, did we close above the previous day's high? .
• We did not. .
• That's a bearish sign. .
• That is also true for the iShare's Microcap ETF. .
• I realize that 99% of you do not own any US Microcap stocks. .
• That's not. Really what. .
• We're using this chart for. .
• This chart is a great indication of the overall mood of the average US investor. .
• I don't need to get on the phone and call people or poll my subscribers. .
• I can tell right from this chart the mood of the market. .
• If people are successful, if people are .
• bullish about the stock market, they're going to go looking for. .
• Opportunitiesin Microcap stocks. .
• From this chart, I can tell you that .
• they're absolutely positively not doing that at the present time. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation, .
• taking a look at the Canadian stock market. .
• Typically, I would use the iShares for the .
• TSX 60 to show you what's going on in the Canadian market. .
• Today, I was going to show the indexes themselves. .
• The reason for that is the Canadian market does not have as many ETF opportunities. .
• There are a lot of ETFs. .
• Most of them are very thinly traded. .
• There are some great sector related ETFs from iShares. .
• But beyond that, while other people have a sector related ETFs, again, a lot of them .
• are very thinly traded, which is dangerous. .
• The TSX has over 200 stocks. .
• It was down yesterday, had an inside day, so a day of indecision. .
• On a bullish note, we're still holding the .
• recent lows, so that could be something going forward. .
• The TSX 60, which is 60 stocks out of the TSX themselves, the big cap stocks. .
• Of course, this is a very group of companies. .
• A lot of them have international businesses. .
• A lot of them have international listings. .
• The international listings can help and hurt at certain times. .
• If there's a big rally in the US market, .
• that could help also lift up some of these TSX60 stocks. .
• And of course, if there's a big sell-off .
• in the US, that could also pull down some of these TSX60 stocks. .
• You can see that we had a slightly lower close yesterday, made a new low for this .
• week, but we're still holding the recent low. .
• Now, if you take the TSX 60 stocks out of the TSX, you're left with this index, .
• which was basically unchanged yesterday and having an inside day, small caps, .
• fairly quiet trading yesterday, and micro caps. .
• Unfortunately, they traded higher .
• yesterday, but they're still on a sell signal here. .
• Again, I can use the venture exchange similar to the micro cap stocks in the US .
• as an indication of the overall mood of the Canadian investor. .
• Now, gold stocks are still holding up at the moment. .
• Without gold stocks, without energy .
• stocks, the TSX would be much lower than it is now. .
• Energy stocks are starting to roll over. .
• Some of the big cap stocks have rolled over. .
• Not necessarily all energy stocks have rolled over just yet. .
• We're still waiting for some of them. .
• Now, what we're going to be looking for is do we continue to hold up here? .
• Does the Flypaper Channel act as support? .
• Does 250 act as support? .
• We put in a higher high last week, which is bullish. .
• Now we have to see if we can put in a higher low. .
• Looking at the global mining sector, not .
• doing well at the moment, still in the Flypaper Channel. .
• That's also true from material stocks. .
• So unlike the gold sector, these stocks are not doing well at the moment. .
• There's a clean technology index. .
• I never talk about it. .
• Really, as you can see, there's no reason to. .
• I don't know much about it and nobody ever .
• asks about it, so that's why I don't talk about it. .
• Consumer Discretionary, this is the area of the market that should do well in a .
• coming recession, not doing well at the moment. .
• Infotech. .
• Now, the reason I'm showing you this chart, of course, is because just like the .
• Nasdaq-100, we are still holding support from the September lows. .
• Now we're looking for not only a buy signal, that would be something. .
• But what we would really be looking for is a breakout above the October highs. .
• That would be a tell that something new is really starting to happen. .
• Looking at the telecom services, we're on a sell signal right now. .
• We're still holding the recent low and that could be something going forward. .
• It isn't anything on Wednesday morning. .
• Then financial services and bank stocks, this is pretty horrible at the moment. .
• One of the reasons it's really horrible is that 95% of all Canadian investors have .
• money in bank stocks whether they know it or not. .
• If they own any major ETFs, if they own any major mutual funds, they're totally .
• invested in bank stocks and this is not going well at the moment. .
• The pros gave up control at the start of August and it does not look like .
• they want to come back and take control on Wednesday. .
• Industrials made a new low on Tuesday. .
• They're down at the bottom of the panic zones. .
• This is what October often looks like. .
• I would certainly be interested in looking .
• for buying opportunities if we start to move up from here. .
• We're seeing panic selling. .
• That's what we're seeing at the moment. .
• That's also true for the Canadian Real Estate sector. .
• Back in the summer, things were looking a little brighter. .
• We put in a higher high and a higher low. .
• Then we started to come into September, we put in a lower high. .
• That was our first warning sign. .
• Then we took out the recent lows, so put in a lower low. .
• That was a very bearish sign. .
• We were hoping to find support at the June low. .
• That didn't work out. .
• So the June low is now acting as resistance. .
• What was once support is now resistance. .
• It will not only be a buy signal that is .
• going to make us bullish, it's also going to be a move out above the October high. .
• Of course, as I mentioned earlier, this is what October often looks like. .
• We've had panic selling here. .
• We want to be buyers down in this area, not sellers. .
• This is where the average retail investor throws in the towel. .
• And once they throw in the towel, that's .
• usually the sign that the market is about to reverse. .
• Let's finish off looking at a couple of the TSX most actives. .
• And we've got some bright signs here. .
• Embridge traded back into the channel after making a higher-low on Monday. .
• That is going to mean something if not only we get a close above 4.4, 47, but if .
• we start trading above the high from last week, we're seeing money go back into .
• Bitcoin stocks as Bitcoin has had a good week. .
• Hut 8 is on its second day of a buy signal. .
• Looking at TC Energy, looking for a close .
• above 47.53. And of course, the tell will be, not only did we put in a higher low, .
• but if we start breaking out above the October high, that would be a higher high. .
• That would be bullish. .
• No joy for the bank stocks as we looked at a couple of minutes ago. .
• So TD Bank, which at one time was the big .
• winner, is coming down with the rest of the banking sector. .
• Manulife inside day yesterday, still holding the August lows. .
• It could be something there in the future, but not on a Wednesday morning. .
• And then, Baytex, unlike some of the big .
• cap energy stocks, has not rolled over just yet. .
• Looking for a close on Wednesday below .
• $5.84 to give us a new sell signal for Baytex. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• It's fairly quiet out there. .
• Dow futures up, Nasdaq S&P 500 features .
• down, commodities are barely moving anywhere on Wednesday morning. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .