• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. .
  • It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.co In the premarket this .
  • morning, stock index futures are above fair value. .
  • Commodities are mixed with crude or .
  • higher, while gold is lower in the premarket on Friday morning. .
  • Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30. .
  • Don't think they'll be enough to really sway the market, but of course, getting .
  • over that 8:30 time period is always a little bit of a stumble. .
  • Now, in the premarket this morning, we've .
  • got Intel trading higher up into the channel. .
  • At the same time, we've got Ford trading lower back down to the recent low. .
  • Now, in both cases, we're not expecting a change in trend on Friday. .
  • Looking at the US market from Thursday's .
  • trading action, you can see it was rather defensive. .
  • The leader was real estate followed by .
  • utilities, of course, on the other side, the side that we watch a lot more closely, .
  • infotech and communication services were the big losers yesterday. .
  • Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a buy signal. .
  • That's negative for stocks. .
  • Little out of sync with the market right now. .
  • I think options traders are a little more bullish than stock traders right now. .
  • As we saw many of the major stock market indices make new lows yesterday. .
  • The VIX would need to close below 18.42 to give us a sell signal on Friday. .
  • That would certainly be short-term bullish. .
  • It would be more bullish if we started to break down below this uptrend line. .
  • Now, when we look at where the stock market is right now and what options .
  • traders are doing, look at how worried options traders were back in March when .
  • the VIX was trading all the way up there to 30. .
  • That is still a possibility. .
  • But right now options traders in Chicago .
  • not overly concerned about the market crashing at the moment. .
  • So just keep that in the back of your mind. .
  • That doesn't mean we're going to change direction right away. .
  • But options traders are not willing to .
  • overly hedge their positions at the moment. .
  • Now you've probably been hearing a lot of .
  • people talk about the 200-day moving average. .
  • And for a lot of investors, that's a big line in the sand. .
  • Most of the symbols in North America are .
  • currently trading below the 200-day moving average. .
  • When you look at the DOW, and it made a .
  • new low yesterday, you look at the S&P 500, it's broken down below the 200-day. .
  • It has also made a new low on Thursday. .
  • It's the Nasdaq that's still holding up, .
  • ran down to the 200-day moving average yesterday. .
  • When we look at the percentage of stocks in the major North American indices and .
  • look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 200-day moving .
  • average, you can see the Nasdaq 100 is still the big winner. .
  • Everybody else is down here in the 20s. .
  • The TSX-60 is down below 20, but it is the Nasdaq that is still the holdout. .
  • And so if those stocks continue to move .
  • lower, there could be a stock market crash. .
  • Now, yesterday we talked about the .
  • Magnificent Seven stocks, and most of them are still holding up fairly well. .
  • Alphabet drove down to the 200-day moving average while Amazon broke down below it. .
  • And remember what was originally .
  • potentially support could act as resistance on the way back up. .
  • Now Amazon is joining Apple and Tesla .
  • already below their 200-day moving averages. .
  • Now, Microsoft was the big loser of the Magnificent Seven yesterday, down .
  • 3.75% right back down to the lower channel line. .
  • It is trading higher in the premarket this morning. .
  • Now, yesterday, we talked about the fact .
  • that we did pop and ran right up to our next price target and stopped on a dime. .
  • Then yesterday, we ran right back down to our price target of 328.13, we actually .
  • closed at 327.89, so just below that level. .
  • But we are trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. .
  • Now looking at Microsoft, you can see the pros still have not taken control, unlike .
  • Tesla, where the pros gave up control right at the start of March. .
  • Now looking at some other 200-day moving .
  • averages, whether you're looking at semiconductor, the Russell 2000, the .
  • microcap stocks, everybody has broken down a long time ago. .
  • It's still the same pattern. .
  • It's the same theme. It's the same story. .
  • It's the same movie, lower highs, lower lows. .
  • Even when you look at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq just put in a lower low. .
  • Now, a lot of symbols that you look at right now look like this where you can see .
  • that the Pressure Zone at the bottom of the screen has elongated. .
  • That means that, hey, we were looking for a new trend, uptrend to start. .
  • It did, but didn't last very long. .
  • We're looking for another new uptrend to start. .
  • It did, but didn't last very long. Here we are. .
  • This is telling you the stock is broken. .
  • Of course, where are we? .
  • We're right down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
  • A Pressure Zone has formed. .
  • We are seeing panic selling at the moment. .
  • That's the time and place where retail investors usually give up the ghost. .
  • In fact, a lot of retail investors will decide to short down here. .
  • You look at the transport ETF, the time to short was off the top of the Panic Zones, .
  • where we had early warning signals and the trends started to change. .
  • This was the time that you short. .
  • You don't short down here. .
  • This is the riskiest time ever to short. .
  • This is the time that retail investors get .
  • enough confidence because now they have enough negative feedback all the way down. .
  • They're getting pounded. They're getting pounded. .
  • Finally, they throw in the towel. .
  • And this is the time and place where markets often reverse higher. .
  • Now, I want to talk about locking in profits. .
  • If you have not systematically been taking money off the table this week as you've .
  • hit your profit targets, you should strongly think about doing it on Friday. .
  • Now, don't completely liquidate a position. .
  • We are coming up to monthend. .
  • There's a full moon on the weekend. .
  • That's usually the time and place where markets might want to change direction. .
  • There's no guarantee. .
  • I don't have a crystal ball. .
  • The market still could crash, who knows? .
  • But you need to be systematic. .
  • This is a business. .
  • You need to run it like a business. .
  • I'm talking to the people that haven't taken any money off the table this week. .
  • If, for example, you locked in profits on Microsoft, that's great. .
  • You don't have to do anything more than that. .
  • You're waiting to get kicked out of the position. .
  • But if you haven't .
  • taken money off the table this week, this is the time and place to do it. .
  • Now, if you're short the 3X bulls or any .
  • of the 2X or 3X index ETFs, take some money off the table. .
  • If you're long the bear ETFs, .
  • yes, the bulls could continue to go lower, the bears could continue to go higher. .
  • But you want to take some money off the .
  • table because this is the time and place where markets can quickly reverse. .
  • Now, if we can make it all the way into .
  • November, which is next week, and we don't crash, that'll take a lot of pressure off .
  • a lot of investors who are very concerned about an October stock market crash. .
  • Remember, the Sell in May crowd comes back in November. .
  • If we can make it through October without .
  • a major crash, that could turn a lot of people bullish on the market and willing .
  • to jump in to get ready for that year-end rally. .
  • Looking at the TSX, you can see similar situation. .
  • Utilities were the big winners. .
  • That's not going to be very helpful. .
  • The fact utilities went up yesterday is really not going to change very much. .
  • Then again, it was the infotech stocks .
  • that were the real drag on the Canadian market on Thursday. .
  • Now, the TSX is down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
  • You can see we were there a couple of weeks ago. .
  • We moved up to resistance. .
  • Remember, what was previous support on the .
  • way down will act as resistance on the way back up. .
  • That's exactly what happened. .
  • So here we are down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
  • Another Pressure Zone is starting to form. .
  • It hasn't formed just yet, but here we are. .
  • The pros: no interest in taking control on Friday. .
  • You can see we're well below the 200-day moving average. .
  • So any expectation when the market starts .
  • to move back up has to go up to where those moving averages are and no further .
  • because it's going to take a lot to turn the market around and get it to go higher, .
  • but it's going to take a lot more to get it up over resistance. .
  • Now, what's holding the market up right now? .
  • Well, gold stocks are certainly playing their part. .
  • You can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
  • We are projecting higher prices right now, but we were not able to get up to 1797. .
  • We had a couple of bullish reversal signals. .
  • When you see those, the first thing you need to do is look for the exit. .
  • You don't have to pull the ripcord and .
  • jump, but just you've got to get mentally prepared. .
  • That's not the time and place to add to a .
  • position, that's the time and place to look to pair back a position. .
  • And on Friday, if you're trading the .
  • iShare's Global Gold ETF, we're looking for a close on Friday below 17.09. Gold is .
  • down five bucks in the premarket this morning. .
  • That could actually happen. .
  • Now, oil stocks have certainly played their part in holding the TSX up. .
  • Again, you can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
  • We've started to pull back. .
  • We're on our third day of a cell signal. .
  • Now, the 50-day moving average is currently acting as support. .
  • You can see a couple of weeks ago, we came .
  • down to the 100-day moving average and found support. .
  • The energy stocks still have the .
  • opportunity to find support at these moving averages, where for everybody else .
  • in North America, those moving averages are acting as resistance. .
  • Now, Infotech, of course, big loser on the TSX yesterday, not only was it the biggest .
  • loser, but it also broke down below the previous lows. .
  • So not really a good sign. .
  • You can see we've broken down below the .
  • 200 day moving average, just like many of the other North American indices have. .
  • And there's the right side chart for the TSX Infotech index. .
  • Looking at the biggest loser on .
  • Infotech from Thursday's trading action was Celestica. .
  • And then, of course, all the regulars are on cell signals, whether you're looking at .
  • BlackBerry, Dye & Durham, Lightspeed, Opentext, Shopify. .
  • Now Shopify is interesting. .
  • We're trying to hold the 200-day moving average that was acting as an area of .
  • really a sticky area for the past few weeks, but we finally broke down. .
  • There was an open gap there, and the .
  • bottom of that open gap over on the left was at 65.15. We closed at 64.53 .
  • yesterday, so we certainly filled that gap and then continued lower. .
  • That gap is no longer in play. .
  • Our next mathematical price target is .
  • 62.50. If that breaks, then we're heading down to 56.25. .
  • Let's finish off with the commodities and crude oil is on a sell signal right now. .
  • It's trading higher in the premarket. .
  • It was down 2.18 yesterday. .
  • It's up a 1.50 last time I checked. .
  • If we take out the October low, then .
  • there's some support there at 78.13. That would certainly be a big tell if we went .
  • down past that level because we recently put in a what do you know, a lower high. .
  • Then looking at natural gas, natural gas moved up to the upper channel line .
  • yesterday, so any higher close on Friday would give us a buy signal. .
  • There's an open gap just above us. .
  • But you can see the pros never gave up control. .
  • Even though we had this pullback and sell signal, the pros didn't give up control. .
  • They're probably anticipating cold weather. .
  • Maybe that's why they held in. .
  • 3.71 was our price target. .
  • We closed at 3.70 yesterday. .
  • Look two lines up. .
  • That's your playing field up to 4.10. If .
  • we can take out 4.10, then 4.30, is that a realistic target? .
  • Well, we looked to the left and we popped up to that level back in August. .
  • So if we get a buy signal here, those are your next price targets. .
  • Now, the price of copper isn't doing anything right now. .
  • What are the pros doing? Well, they're not doing much. .
  • It does not look like they want to buy at the same time, I don't think they're .
  • too overly excited to be sellers at the present time. .
  • I guess they're waiting for more global economic news before they do anything. .
  • On the other hand, gold shot higher. .
  • Pros took control and ran it back up to $2,000. .
  • So far, we've been unable to break out above $2,000. .
  • At the same time, Silver Traders not as excited trading down to the lower channel .
  • line yesterday, so a close below $22.58 on Friday would give us a sell signal. .
  • The pros are in control, but $23.43 has .
  • been acting as resistance and holding silver in check. .
  • Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
  • Again, if you haven't been systematically .
  • taking money off the table this week and locking in profits, you probably want to .
  • do so on Friday ahead of the full moon and ahead of month end. .
  • Enjoy the rest of Friday. .
  • Have a great weekend, and the next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning. .