• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.co In the premarket this .
• morning, stock index futures are above fair value. .
• Commodities are mixed with crude or .
• higher, while gold is lower in the premarket on Friday morning. .
• Now, we do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30. .
• Don't think they'll be enough to really sway the market, but of course, getting .
• over that 8:30 time period is always a little bit of a stumble. .
• Now, in the premarket this morning, we've .
• got Intel trading higher up into the channel. .
• At the same time, we've got Ford trading lower back down to the recent low. .
• Now, in both cases, we're not expecting a change in trend on Friday. .
• Looking at the US market from Thursday's .
• trading action, you can see it was rather defensive. .
• The leader was real estate followed by .
• utilities, of course, on the other side, the side that we watch a lot more closely, .
• infotech and communication services were the big losers yesterday. .
• Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a buy signal. .
• That's negative for stocks. .
• Little out of sync with the market right now. .
• I think options traders are a little more bullish than stock traders right now. .
• As we saw many of the major stock market indices make new lows yesterday. .
• The VIX would need to close below 18.42 to give us a sell signal on Friday. .
• That would certainly be short-term bullish. .
• It would be more bullish if we started to break down below this uptrend line. .
• Now, when we look at where the stock market is right now and what options .
• traders are doing, look at how worried options traders were back in March when .
• the VIX was trading all the way up there to 30. .
• That is still a possibility. .
• But right now options traders in Chicago .
• not overly concerned about the market crashing at the moment. .
• So just keep that in the back of your mind. .
• That doesn't mean we're going to change direction right away. .
• But options traders are not willing to .
• overly hedge their positions at the moment. .
• Now you've probably been hearing a lot of .
• people talk about the 200-day moving average. .
• And for a lot of investors, that's a big line in the sand. .
• Most of the symbols in North America are .
• currently trading below the 200-day moving average. .
• When you look at the DOW, and it made a .
• new low yesterday, you look at the S&P 500, it's broken down below the 200-day. .
• It has also made a new low on Thursday. .
• It's the Nasdaq that's still holding up, .
• ran down to the 200-day moving average yesterday. .
• When we look at the percentage of stocks in the major North American indices and .
• look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 200-day moving .
• average, you can see the Nasdaq 100 is still the big winner. .
• Everybody else is down here in the 20s. .
• The TSX-60 is down below 20, but it is the Nasdaq that is still the holdout. .
• And so if those stocks continue to move .
• lower, there could be a stock market crash. .
• Now, yesterday we talked about the .
• Magnificent Seven stocks, and most of them are still holding up fairly well. .
• Alphabet drove down to the 200-day moving average while Amazon broke down below it. .
• And remember what was originally .
• potentially support could act as resistance on the way back up. .
• Now Amazon is joining Apple and Tesla .
• already below their 200-day moving averages. .
• Now, Microsoft was the big loser of the Magnificent Seven yesterday, down .
• 3.75% right back down to the lower channel line. .
• It is trading higher in the premarket this morning. .
• Now, yesterday, we talked about the fact .
• that we did pop and ran right up to our next price target and stopped on a dime. .
• Then yesterday, we ran right back down to our price target of 328.13, we actually .
• closed at 327.89, so just below that level. .
• But we are trading slightly higher in the premarket this morning. .
• Now looking at Microsoft, you can see the pros still have not taken control, unlike .
• Tesla, where the pros gave up control right at the start of March. .
• Now looking at some other 200-day moving .
• averages, whether you're looking at semiconductor, the Russell 2000, the .
• microcap stocks, everybody has broken down a long time ago. .
• It's still the same pattern. .
• It's the same theme. It's the same story. .
• It's the same movie, lower highs, lower lows. .
• Even when you look at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq just put in a lower low. .
• Now, a lot of symbols that you look at right now look like this where you can see .
• that the Pressure Zone at the bottom of the screen has elongated. .
• That means that, hey, we were looking for a new trend, uptrend to start. .
• It did, but didn't last very long. .
• We're looking for another new uptrend to start. .
• It did, but didn't last very long. Here we are. .
• This is telling you the stock is broken. .
• Of course, where are we? .
• We're right down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• A Pressure Zone has formed. .
• We are seeing panic selling at the moment. .
• That's the time and place where retail investors usually give up the ghost. .
• In fact, a lot of retail investors will decide to short down here. .
• You look at the transport ETF, the time to short was off the top of the Panic Zones, .
• where we had early warning signals and the trends started to change. .
• This was the time that you short. .
• You don't short down here. .
• This is the riskiest time ever to short. .
• This is the time that retail investors get .
• enough confidence because now they have enough negative feedback all the way down. .
• They're getting pounded. They're getting pounded. .
• Finally, they throw in the towel. .
• And this is the time and place where markets often reverse higher. .
• Now, I want to talk about locking in profits. .
• If you have not systematically been taking money off the table this week as you've .
• hit your profit targets, you should strongly think about doing it on Friday. .
• Now, don't completely liquidate a position. .
• We are coming up to monthend. .
• There's a full moon on the weekend. .
• That's usually the time and place where markets might want to change direction. .
• There's no guarantee. .
• I don't have a crystal ball. .
• The market still could crash, who knows? .
• But you need to be systematic. .
• This is a business. .
• You need to run it like a business. .
• I'm talking to the people that haven't taken any money off the table this week. .
• If, for example, you locked in profits on Microsoft, that's great. .
• You don't have to do anything more than that. .
• You're waiting to get kicked out of the position. .
• But if you haven't .
• taken money off the table this week, this is the time and place to do it. .
• Now, if you're short the 3X bulls or any .
• of the 2X or 3X index ETFs, take some money off the table. .
• If you're long the bear ETFs, .
• yes, the bulls could continue to go lower, the bears could continue to go higher. .
• But you want to take some money off the .
• table because this is the time and place where markets can quickly reverse. .
• Now, if we can make it all the way into .
• November, which is next week, and we don't crash, that'll take a lot of pressure off .
• a lot of investors who are very concerned about an October stock market crash. .
• Remember, the Sell in May crowd comes back in November. .
• If we can make it through October without .
• a major crash, that could turn a lot of people bullish on the market and willing .
• to jump in to get ready for that year-end rally. .
• Looking at the TSX, you can see similar situation. .
• Utilities were the big winners. .
• That's not going to be very helpful. .
• The fact utilities went up yesterday is really not going to change very much. .
• Then again, it was the infotech stocks .
• that were the real drag on the Canadian market on Thursday. .
• Now, the TSX is down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• You can see we were there a couple of weeks ago. .
• We moved up to resistance. .
• Remember, what was previous support on the .
• way down will act as resistance on the way back up. .
• That's exactly what happened. .
• So here we are down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• Another Pressure Zone is starting to form. .
• It hasn't formed just yet, but here we are. .
• The pros: no interest in taking control on Friday. .
• You can see we're well below the 200-day moving average. .
• So any expectation when the market starts .
• to move back up has to go up to where those moving averages are and no further .
• because it's going to take a lot to turn the market around and get it to go higher, .
• but it's going to take a lot more to get it up over resistance. .
• Now, what's holding the market up right now? .
• Well, gold stocks are certainly playing their part. .
• You can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
• We are projecting higher prices right now, but we were not able to get up to 1797. .
• We had a couple of bullish reversal signals. .
• When you see those, the first thing you need to do is look for the exit. .
• You don't have to pull the ripcord and .
• jump, but just you've got to get mentally prepared. .
• That's not the time and place to add to a .
• position, that's the time and place to look to pair back a position. .
• And on Friday, if you're trading the .
• iShare's Global Gold ETF, we're looking for a close on Friday below 17.09. Gold is .
• down five bucks in the premarket this morning. .
• That could actually happen. .
• Now, oil stocks have certainly played their part in holding the TSX up. .
• Again, you can see the early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
• We've started to pull back. .
• We're on our third day of a cell signal. .
• Now, the 50-day moving average is currently acting as support. .
• You can see a couple of weeks ago, we came .
• down to the 100-day moving average and found support. .
• The energy stocks still have the .
• opportunity to find support at these moving averages, where for everybody else .
• in North America, those moving averages are acting as resistance. .
• Now, Infotech, of course, big loser on the TSX yesterday, not only was it the biggest .
• loser, but it also broke down below the previous lows. .
• So not really a good sign. .
• You can see we've broken down below the .
• 200 day moving average, just like many of the other North American indices have. .
• And there's the right side chart for the TSX Infotech index. .
• Looking at the biggest loser on .
• Infotech from Thursday's trading action was Celestica. .
• And then, of course, all the regulars are on cell signals, whether you're looking at .
• BlackBerry, Dye & Durham, Lightspeed, Opentext, Shopify. .
• Now Shopify is interesting. .
• We're trying to hold the 200-day moving average that was acting as an area of .
• really a sticky area for the past few weeks, but we finally broke down. .
• There was an open gap there, and the .
• bottom of that open gap over on the left was at 65.15. We closed at 64.53 .
• yesterday, so we certainly filled that gap and then continued lower. .
• That gap is no longer in play. .
• Our next mathematical price target is .
• 62.50. If that breaks, then we're heading down to 56.25. .
• Let's finish off with the commodities and crude oil is on a sell signal right now. .
• It's trading higher in the premarket. .
• It was down 2.18 yesterday. .
• It's up a 1.50 last time I checked. .
• If we take out the October low, then .
• there's some support there at 78.13. That would certainly be a big tell if we went .
• down past that level because we recently put in a what do you know, a lower high. .
• Then looking at natural gas, natural gas moved up to the upper channel line .
• yesterday, so any higher close on Friday would give us a buy signal. .
• There's an open gap just above us. .
• But you can see the pros never gave up control. .
• Even though we had this pullback and sell signal, the pros didn't give up control. .
• They're probably anticipating cold weather. .
• Maybe that's why they held in. .
• 3.71 was our price target. .
• We closed at 3.70 yesterday. .
• Look two lines up. .
• That's your playing field up to 4.10. If .
• we can take out 4.10, then 4.30, is that a realistic target? .
• Well, we looked to the left and we popped up to that level back in August. .
• So if we get a buy signal here, those are your next price targets. .
• Now, the price of copper isn't doing anything right now. .
• What are the pros doing? Well, they're not doing much. .
• It does not look like they want to buy at the same time, I don't think they're .
• too overly excited to be sellers at the present time. .
• I guess they're waiting for more global economic news before they do anything. .
• On the other hand, gold shot higher. .
• Pros took control and ran it back up to $2,000. .
• So far, we've been unable to break out above $2,000. .
• At the same time, Silver Traders not as excited trading down to the lower channel .
• line yesterday, so a close below $22.58 on Friday would give us a sell signal. .
• The pros are in control, but $23.43 has .
• been acting as resistance and holding silver in check. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Again, if you haven't been systematically .
• taking money off the table this week and locking in profits, you probably want to .
• do so on Friday ahead of the full moon and ahead of month end. .
• Enjoy the rest of Friday. .
• Have a great weekend, and the next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning. .