Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
In the premarket this morning, stock index .
futures and commodities are trading above fair value. .
So far, it looks like we're going to see .
some buying at the open on Tuesday morning. .
Where we're not going to see some buying? .
Well, that's in JetBlue. .
Jetblue is out with earnings and it's down another 5, 7% in the premarket. .
So if you're short, JetBlue, still no .
reason to buy back the remainder of your position. .
Now it is month end. .
Month end usually has a bullish bias to it. .
That's one of the reasons that we .
recommended that you lock in profits on any long bear ETFs .
or short stocks on Friday if you had not already done so. .
Some people have certainly been locking in profits on the way down. .
We wanted to make sure you did that on .
Friday because we expected the market to turn around this week. .
Now the Fed meeting is going on. .
It's a two-day meeting, of course, and volatility in the stock market should .
start to expand after 2:00 PM, Wednesday afternoon. .
Now, the VIX closed lower yesterday into .
the channel, not enough to give us a sell signal. .
That would happen on Tuesday if the VIX were to close below $18. .
85. .
And if the VIX continues lower from here, that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 .
all closed higher yesterday, all closing above the previous day's high. .
That's a bullish sign. .
It could be the start of something. .
Of course, only time will tell. .
Now, that didn't happen for the TSX. .
The TSX did close higher on Monday, but not above the previous day's high. .
And we saw some big selling in a couple of the TSX 60 stocks. .
First Quantum was down over 28% on the day .
coming into yesterday's trading action, already on a sell signal. .
That is also true for Franco Nevada, which was down over 8% on the day. .
That's one of the reasons .
or two of the reasons why the TSX did not close above Friday's high. .
Now, semiconductors also continued to move lower yesterday. .
At the same time, the best performing .
stock on the S&P 500 on Monday was Western Digital was up nicely, but not enough to .
give us a buy signal, did not close above the previous day's high. .
Then the worst performing stock on the S&P .
500 was ON Semiconductor down over 20 % on the day. .
We also saw a weakness in NXP. .
We also saw a weakness in Analog Devices .
and Microchip Technologies all down on the day pushing the semiconductor index lower. .
What didn't move lower? .
Well, NVIDIA was up on the day 1.63 % on .
the day closing right at the previous day's high. .
Still trying to hold the 406.25 level. .
On Thursday, we dipped down below $400 and came back. .
And so we are finding support there. .
I noticed once again, on Thursday, we put in a lower low. .
That movie is still playing out. .
That has not changed just yet. .
What worked on the TSX? .
Well, it was consumer staples and information technology. .
What didn't work was materials and energy, .
and you saw some material stocks already down. .
Consumer Staples was up, and that was .
Loblaws, George Weston were up nicely yesterday contributing to that. .
Infotech was up and closed above Friday's high. .
That is positive. .
What didn't work? .
Well, we looked at materials or a couple .
of material stocks earlier and it was down on the day. .
We also have the energy sector closing lower. .
I'm not trending lower at the moment. .
We're still on a sell signal here, but certainly there isn't a trend in place. .
Now in the US, everything worked cross the board for all the major S&P sectors, and .
the biggest winner was communication services going up filling that gap. .
That'll be interesting to see what happens next. .
Transports, which were not on the list, but they were performing very well .
yesterday, up nearly 2% on the day, so possibly a bottom for transports. .
We'll just have to wait and see. .
And then we had the financials up. .
Now, while the financial index moved up .
and actually traded above Friday's high, closing right at Friday's High, you'll .
notice that banks, regional banks, and the broker dealers all had inside days, so .
really a day of indecision for the financial sector. .
Now, the weakest of the major US sectors on Monday was the energy sector, closing .
up a third of a %, still trying to hold the $84 level. .
Our mathematical target was $84.38. We .
traded a little below that yesterday, putting in a lower low. .
That theme hasn't changed. .
Of course, the first sign something new is .
happening is if we can close above Friday's high. .
Let's finish off today's presentation .
looking at the major US commodity ETF's, starting with the USO. .
No change in trend there. .
No change in trend for gasoline. .
Big change in trend for natural gas, which .
rolled over and closed below the lower channel line yesterday. .
So natural gas back on a cell signal as of Monday's close. .
Inside day on Monday for the GLD. .
No joy for palladium. .
Platinum continued to move higher on Monday and silver closed higher on Monday. .
And it'll be interesting to see if we can .
take out last week's high for the price of silver. .
Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
Looking for some buying at the open on Tuesday morning. .
Not expecting a lot of volatility. .
Things usually calm down before the Fed meeting is over. .
Of course, that happens at 2:00 PM, Wednesday afternoon. .
Enjoy the rest of your day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .